When is the pricing bubble going to burst?

In a normal year the UK Used car market is between 7.3 and 8m units. SO quite substantial. The biggest issue affecting the next 12-24 months will be the comparative shortage of Used cars ages 1-3 years. This is is a factor of the last two years market volumes impacted by COVID and to a lesser extent Brexit. Overlay the current semi-conductor shortages and you have consecutive new car markets of c1.7m units. Thats historically 6-700k units less than a "normal" market. Multiply by three and by 2023 you have c2m less "young" used cars in the market place. Thats a problem and in my opinion the reason why we aren't going to see a rapid correction. The biggest thing that could drive it would an oversupply of new vehicles but that looks unlikely with the OEMs having to balance not only profit and volume but also CO2.
 
Cazoo have been making hay during lock-down and covid restrictions but with garages back on their feet, I don't get the online purchase fad;
I wouldn't buy a car unseen, even if (like an emma matrice) I can get money back, that's too much hassle,
subsequent warranty issues too, I want an accountable physical dealer.

yes tesla may be trying to drive online purchase, for new (as yet?) cars but absence of an accountable dealer for the too frequent owner snag list,
as illustrated in recent model 3 thread posts, doesn't sound convenient, plus it's not as though the cars are better value either,
Tesla (maybe their shareholders) pocketted the additional revenue the middle man would have had.
 
Cazoo have been making hay during lock-down and covid restrictions but with garages back on their feet, I don't get the online purchase fad;
I wouldn't buy a car unseen, even if (like an emma matrice) I can get money back, that's too much hassle,
subsequent warranty issues too, I want an accountable physical dealer.

yes tesla may be trying to drive online purchase, for new (as yet?) cars but absence of an accountable dealer for the too frequent owner snag list,
as illustrated in recent model 3 thread posts, doesn't sound convenient, plus it's not as though the cars are better value either,
Tesla (maybe their shareholders) pocketted the additional revenue the middle man would have had.
Have you ever bought and returned something to Amazon?

How did it compare to a retail store?

Cazoo et al. are the digital disruptors of this whole industry. They are making such massive margins they don't need to worry about losing a few quid on a car.

And let's be honest, when it gets tricky, all they'll do is ring the main HQ for the answer anyway.
 
Have you ever bought and returned something to Amazon?
financial engagement with a car - I'll need to buy insurance to transfer no claims, or, hang on I've sold my existing car .....
mean returning a car is a bit different to amazon, where,
you'll have to pay return postage too, but, Amazon (sold by them) process is painless for legitimate product problems.

--
cazoo, now floated, stock price drop doesn't reflect sunlit uplands
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/czoo

but, interesting they have bought into a spanish car subscription service - so monthly rental of their purchased stock ?
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/c...ice-for-eur30m-271637067582?mod=mw_quote_news
 
financial engagement with a car - I'll need to buy insurance to transfer no claims, or, hang on I've sold my existing car .....
mean returning a car is a bit different to amazon, where,
you'll have to pay return postage too, but, Amazon (sold by them) process is painless for legitimate product problems.

--
cazoo, now floated, stock price drop doesn't reflect sunlit uplands
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/czoo

but, interesting they have bought into a spanish car subscription service - so monthly rental of their purchased stock ?
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/c...ice-for-eur30m-271637067582?mod=mw_quote_news
$5bn market float!

Are they? How? They're very competitively priced, I assumed it was a low margin high volume strategy.
I used the word margin a bit carelessly as you're right - but as with most car companies, the big dollar comes from the finance agreements. They shifted like 13k cars last quarter and I imagine the vast majority have 8.9% finance agreements on.

The car has just become the lump of tin to attach the finance agreement to. Almost none of the target market care about total price, just monthly payment.
 
I guess Cazoo also have the potential for margin in the sense that they procure some vehicles directly from consumers rather than fighting for them at potentially inflated (in the 2021 climate) auction prices. Similar to WBAC/Cinch.
 
I was just wondering the same thing.

We are fortunate enough to have an ID3 which we are using as our family car and I've still got a 2015 Skoda superb for other duties including caravan towing.

I am.really wanting to scratch an itch of a nice big engined 4x4 or crossover style estate to make towing a bit more luxurious.

Right now car prices are mad, I was lucky enough to pay £8k for the Skoda 4 years ago so have had many years depreciation free motoring....my worry now is the next car which would be kept for another 4-5 years + is going to hit the time when I think prices will crash.

As fox has pointed out...I really think at this point in the market it's just a good time to hold on to your vehicle's!

I may remap the car to give it a new lease of life but on the flip side it's a nice example of an unmolested car so may just plod on until electric can town 200 miles on a charge.
 
Cazoo have been making hay during lock-down and covid restrictions but with garages back on their feet, I don't get the online purchase fad;
I wouldn't buy a car unseen, even if (like an emma matrice) I can get money back, that's too much hassle,
subsequent warranty issues too, I want an accountable physical dealer.

yes tesla may be trying to drive online purchase, for new (as yet?) cars but absence of an accountable dealer for the too frequent owner snag list,
as illustrated in recent model 3 thread posts, doesn't sound convenient, plus it's not as though the cars are better value either,
Tesla (maybe their shareholders) pocketted the additional revenue the middle man would have had.

Although we lease out ID3 we ordered just by watching YouTube videos and reading reviews. Never sat in one or saw one in the flesh.

Clicked through a few forms and then months later a knock at the door and the new car was delivered on our drive!

I don't think I'd be rushing to a showroom anytime soon!
 
I guess with new cars / leases you don't really need to see that specific car in the flesh as there isn't any history to be aware of, you could sit in one elsewhere (acquaintance, showroom, whatever) and then just place the order.
It's a bigger step of course to just order a car you've never seen but I guess if you really didn't like it there would be a cooling off period, although I imagine sorting out insurance etc would be a bit of a faff.
 
I guess Cazoo also have the potential for margin in the sense that they procure some vehicles directly from consumers rather than fighting for them at potentially inflated (in the 2021 climate) auction prices. Similar to WBAC/Cinch.

Cinch are the retail arm of BCA, so they are selling their stock direct.
 
Yes I know, and WBAC are part of the same group. So essentially they can also acquire vehicles for Cinch directly from consumers via WBAC, rather than via dealers sending them to BCA.
The point I'm trying to get across is that there is an opportunity for more margin if you can remove dealers from the equation, which models like this should facilitate.
 
Saw the converse at the weekend - went past Hylton Gott kings lynn volvo - stacked with used cars , unless they are stockpiling for other dealers,
they are all in , if the market crashes (omicron, further energy supply issues courtesy of Ukraine or oil increase, just inflation ) they'll be holding the baby.

Hah I go past that one quite often, will be going past Thursday week after next actually, I'll take a good look.
 
It is a convertible and it is Winter.......

Its a hardtop convertible though..................soft top i would agree with you.

In the current market its still underpriced compared with similar "softops" so its either a mistake or there is something wrong with it.
 
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