When is the pricing bubble going to burst?

Its a hardtop convertible though..................soft top i would agree with you.

In the current market its still underpriced compared with similar "softops" so its either a mistake or there is something wrong with it.

Whilst it's definitely on the cheaper side, there are 8 cars nationwide that appear under £35k, none seem to be particularly high miles or write offs or anything. It's not like it's £5,000 cheaper than the next equivalent M4 Comp drop top or anything.
 
Whilst it's definitely on the cheaper side, there are 8 cars nationwide that appear under £35k, none seem to be particularly high miles or write offs or anything. It's not like it's £5,000 cheaper than the next equivalent M4 Comp drop top or anything.

Fair enough, just had a look and there are indeed a lot of them now below £35k for similar spec and mileage. Guess that must be the winter affect pulling them down.
 
The Aston has gone up. All other cars holding or down.

I noticed though Cazoo who were giving very strong offers are now similar to WBAC or even lower, WBAC are now at £32,700 on the Yaris, which is an improvement over last month and Cazoo are £30,800 so 2k less whereas they used to be around 2k higher. I suspect they went to war with WBAC offering higher prices to win more inventory, that push for now is over.

The Ferrari is quite odd, WBAC were 124k, today 107k, yet privately all prices are up, either an error or they really trying their luck, lol.
 
Yep Cazoo were about 15% higher than WBAC for a month or two on our car, now about 5% lower. Looking on their site, Cazoo also now have 3 of that make/model in stock compared with 0 they used to.
 
Just done a Cazoo check on my Skoda Kodiaq - it's a full £8k more than the finance outstanding on it. Now usual caveats about condition, them being buggers and haggling downwards when they actually look at it, but that is pretty substantial. A quick autotrader check for the same model, age and mileage for sale shows that its definitely about right (in that dealers are selling for a few K above the quoted Cazoo price.

I'd definitely do it, except I then need to find a replacement car so wouldn't be able to bank the £8k anyway. The 2nd hand market is a bit mad at the moment it seems.
 
The Aston has gone up. All other cars holding or down.

I noticed though Cazoo who were giving very strong offers are now similar to WBAC or even lower, WBAC are now at £32,700 on the Yaris, which is an improvement over last month and Cazoo are £30,800 so 2k less whereas they used to be around 2k higher. I suspect they went to war with WBAC offering higher prices to win more inventory, that push for now is over.

The Ferrari is quite odd, WBAC were 124k, today 107k, yet privately all prices are up, either an error or they really trying their luck, lol.

Probably more that they are back to their usual M.O. ie buying cars for as little as possible targeting distressed sales etc. I think they base or at least weight a lot of their pricing based on recent auction sales - I spent a while chatting with a 20-year+ veteran employee about their business model and he was suggesting that particularly for the low volume stuff a bad auction hammer price or two in a row for a particular model car would drastically drop the price they'd pay for a car.

I think broadly things are softening. For example I'm looking at DB11s as that might be the next car I buy and cars over £100k sit around for a lot longer than cars under £100k. If a car is reduced to cross the £100k 'barrier' they are often gone within days. Cars in the low 90s with poor spec choices still sit around for weeks at a time but well-specced cars which get reduced seem to move. Overall my impression is that the market is still well above where it was 6-12 months ago but values are weakening, dealers are having to drop prices to move cars and there's probably deals to be had. Another example is a Ferrari Cali T in a pretty decent spec came up and had a bit of interest inc myself. They put the price up by £2k and have now reduced it again by £2.3k. I know they fiddle with the prices just to see what happens but it is certainly my impression that they are realising the market has started to deflate and that's being reflected in lower bids on cars, lower footfall and ultimately, lower prices on cars...
 
Probably more that they are back to their usual M.O. ie buying cars for as little as possible targeting distressed sales etc. I think they base or at least weight a lot of their pricing based on recent auction sales - I spent a while chatting with a 20-year+ veteran employee about their business model and he was suggesting that particularly for the low volume stuff a bad auction hammer price or two in a row for a particular model car would drastically drop the price they'd pay for a car.

I think broadly things are softening. For example I'm looking at DB11s as that might be the next car I buy and cars over £100k sit around for a lot longer than cars under £100k. If a car is reduced to cross the £100k 'barrier' they are often gone within days. Cars in the low 90s with poor spec choices still sit around for weeks at a time but well-specced cars which get reduced seem to move. Overall my impression is that the market is still well above where it was 6-12 months ago but values are weakening, dealers are having to drop prices to move cars and there's probably deals to be had. Another example is a Ferrari Cali T in a pretty decent spec came up and had a bit of interest inc myself. They put the price up by £2k and have now reduced it again by £2.3k. I know they fiddle with the prices just to see what happens but it is certainly my impression that they are realising the market has started to deflate and that's being reflected in lower bids on cars, lower footfall and ultimately, lower prices on cars...

Used car world is still massively up compared to where it was, not even close to where prices used to be. Speciale I could have got for 250k start of 2021 are now all north of 300k, some are 350k. Aperta have sold as high as 700k, CRAZY! This in turn is having the same effect as the CSL huge value boost had on regular M3, 458's value in retail have moved up considerably, to the point I am now three years into my car and 15k miles added but privately its worth pretty much what I paid again, which feels good but zero plans to sell. Whereas 812 are forever getting closer to 200k, which at the start of 2021 were around 275k. 430 and 430 Scud values have also shot up, 488 values seem to be neutral now and Pista has come down quite a bit, as Speciale sell for more than Pista's now as the 458 are considered the pinnacle of the V8 Ferrari's as faster does not always mean better and some consider the F430 manual the absolute best and is why they are all now 150k plus, if you can find one. 2030 is forever getting closer and all cars will all be crazy fast but boring milk floats, people are getting their frills and buying the hero's of the past as to speak, some will come back to the market but I know many people are buying cars to keep now as well. Like my 458, will I ever sell it? Not sure but I seriously have no plans too, same for the Aston, nothing can come close to how good they feel to drive and how they create such joy and emotion to drive.

Jan/Feb should see best deals, March will no doubt see values moving up again as is the seasonal trend.
 
To be fair, historically used car sales are always down by up to 20% in December so it might be no more than just seasonal adjustment.
 
Whilst it's definitely on the cheaper side, there are 8 cars nationwide that appear under £35k, none seem to be particularly high miles or write offs or anything. It's not like it's £5,000 cheaper than the next equivalent M4 Comp drop top or anything.

Im only looking at used approved, of which there’s that one at 32, two cars at 36 (which is the lowest I’ve seen previously) and all the rest hanging around 40 for a Comp. Its massively stood out in the 12 months I’ve been looking.
 
Sorry I've not read through this thread in detail. Noticed the other day when I idly put the Mrs' car into WBAC that there's an interesting discrepancy, and I wondered whether it was indicative of the bubble deflating a little.

It's a 17 year old Audi S4 convertible, so you wouldn't think there was much value left in it despite low miles. And indeed WBAC were offering around £2,500 for it. But all adverts on Autotrader for anything similar remain in the £5k region that they have been in for the last year or so.

I suspect WBAC are about right, and the Autotrader adverts display hopeful people who are trying to deny the drop - but I obviously don't know for sure. Or, given it's a soft top of course, it could simply be a seasonal thing and those sellers are happy to wait out spring for a bounce.
 
Sorry I've not read through this thread in detail. Noticed the other day when I idly put the Mrs' car into WBAC that there's an interesting discrepancy, and I wondered whether it was indicative of the bubble deflating a little.

It's a 17 year old Audi S4 convertible, so you wouldn't think there was much value left in it despite low miles. And indeed WBAC were offering around £2,500 for it. But all adverts on Autotrader for anything similar remain in the £5k region that they have been in for the last year or so.

I suspect WBAC are about right, and the Autotrader adverts display hopeful people who are trying to deny the drop - but I obviously don't know for sure. Or, given it's a soft top of course, it could simply be a seasonal thing and those sellers are happy to wait out spring for a bounce.

WBAC will want to make a profit from it at auction, selling it to a dealer who will also want to make a profit on it. £2.5k from WBAC sounds about right if they are retailing at ~£5k.
 
It gets to the point that it doesn’t really matter how old the car is, if it works, has an MOT and is in good condition, it will be worth a certain amount of money.

An A4 convertible is one of those cars that people will pay good money for almost regardless. It’s the same with old Mercs and BMWs, even when they are complete sheds.
 
Im only looking at used approved, of which there’s that one at 32, two cars at 36 (which is the lowest I’ve seen previously) and all the rest hanging around 40 for a Comp. Its massively stood out in the 12 months I’ve been looking.

On the AUC site I see that one at £33k, one at £34k then the rest at £36/37 upwards, so yeah, for AUC cars it stands out more - possibly AUC cars are coming down due to competing trade?

Interestingly, looking at the reg on totalcarcheck, that picked up the advert in late November at £36,990, so it looks like someone has decided to hack £4,000 off the asking price within a few weeks of advertising the car. Also a lot of advertising history for a '1 owner car', whoever it was obviously had a change of heart in November 2019 and June 2021 and decided to keep it a little bit longer :p

Previously Seen Adverts
We have seen this registration advertised with the following details:

Description BMW, Petrol, Grey, 2979cc
Date Seen 24 November 2021
Price £36,990
Mileage 36,320 miles
Description BMW, Petrol, Grey, 2979cc
Date Seen 24 November 2021
Price £37,000
Mileage 36,320 miles
Description BMW, Petrol, Grey, 2979cc
Date Seen 13 June 2021
Price £36,850
Mileage 31,000 miles
Description BMW, Petrol, Grey, 2979cc
Date Seen 18 November 2019
Price £35,850
Mileage 15,111 miles
 
WBAC were offering around £2,500 for it. But all adverts on Autotrader for anything similar remain in the £5k region that they have been in for the last year or so.
Rule of thumb is cars will always be priced at least £1.5k above their 'trade in' (i.e. what you will get selling them to an organisation that will then resell) value. So a car you will be offered £2.5k by a non-private buyer I would expect to be priced at £4k minimum.
 
This is going to burst big time next year.

Would like a new car, but not taking part in all this madness at the moment.
 
This is going to burst big time next year.

Would like a new car, but not taking part in all this madness at the moment.

Cant see it. More and more people in the industry are saying that the chip shortage will last until 2023. Some cars if you order now already wont be delivered until 2023.

Now we have covid lockdowns looking likely across Europe and the world again which will disrupt production.

Already the number of new cars sold is expected to be down at least 20% next year. Fewer new cars = fewer used cars and higher used prices.

Capitalism at work, simple supply and demand.
 
This is going to burst big time next year.

Would like a new car, but not taking part in all this madness at the moment.

Don't see it happen, feel the prices will build up again, then were in 2023 and most manufacturers have already or are stating no more combustion engines from 2025, some are later but all are done by 2030.
So people will still be hunting cars down, I am of course talking more special, fun type cars but the shortages is impacting generic stuff as well.

More normal stuff might see the bubble pop late 2023, the special stuff many think this is just the start and well I am inclined to agree.
 
I sold my Civic. Probably at about the right time, although I havn't checked since. It was 32k new, I drove it daily for 2.5 years then traded it in for 33k. It was WWAC or similar. I saw it later on Auto Trader, being sold by Cazoo for 33k. So clearly someone lost money there.
 
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