End of Private car ownership - thoughts?

[Rroff]

The problem is these kind of things tend to be pushed towards extremes - often by people with extremely limited (though they might not accept it) broader experience who can't see outside of what works for them and think everyone else lives similar lives* and won't take onboard new information. There is room and need for both approaches going forward - with people where either approach is hugely beneficial or a significant problem.


* I grew up through the 80s with a fairly middle class standard of living - took me a long time to realise what I considered a "normal" standard of living was anything but for a significant percentage of the population where things I took for granted like 3 decent meals a day, car, telephone, etc. were distinct luxuries.

 

[dlockers]

@lordrobs
There never will be EVs for the masses.
It’s a distraction from what is really happening.
The infrastructure won’t be in place certainly within my life time.
I’m pretty sure a better solution than EV will come along, but the goal is to reduce the number of vehicles on the road.
It’s even admitted by the government, they want to end private car ownership.
Feel like I’m talking to a wall most of the time, you lot just imagine what suits your own personal situation.
As for cheap EVs it won’t matter because the majority haven’t and won’t ever have a means to charge them.

I rescind the Victor Meldrew designation from Fox (great self awareness btw, despite me getting the dishwasher of a car you own wrong) and award it to you, SkodaMart. Purveyor of all things with a manual choke.

The problem is these kind of things tend to be pushed towards extremes - often by people with extremely limited (though they might not accept it) broader experience who can't see outside of what works for them and think everyone else lives similar lives* and won't take onboard new information. There is room and need for both approaches going forward - with people where either approach is hugely beneficial or a significant problem.


* I grew up through the 80s with a fairly middle class standard of living - took me a long time to realise what I considered a "normal" standard of living was anything but for a significant percentage of the population where things I took for granted like 3 decent meals a day, car, telephone, etc. were distinct luxuries.

This post should be a mandatory part of reading for almost everyone on OCUK forums. It is baffling how few get this concept. Well done, Rroff.

 

[SkodaMart]

I rescind the Victor Meldrew designation from Fox (great self awareness btw, despite me getting the dishwasher of a car you own wrong) and award it to you, SkodaMart. Purveyor of all things with a manual choke.


This post should be a mandatory part of reading for almost everyone on OCUK forums. It is baffling how few get this concept. Well done, Rroff.

Just been talking about points actually and yes I love old cars.
Not got a flat cap just yet though.

 

[Quartz]

True. But I would imagine most people would want cars at similar times, so the same would be true of a hire arrangement.

Yes, commuting would mean peak times, but rather than going directly from home to work, people might go from home to a train or bus station and then from the stop at the other end to work.

This is a city idea only.

And have you considered how many people live in urban areas? It's over 80% (in 8% of the UK's land area). Don't you think that significantly reducing the number of cars they need would be useful? Just because it won't work for you dosn't mean it won't work at all.

 

[[TW]Fox]

despite me getting the dishwasher of a car you own wrong

Says the grey 3 litre E Class owner to the grey 3 litre 5 series owner

 

[b0rn2sk8]

Can I see some sources for this 'fact', please?

Pretty much every survey going estimates it between 60-70%.
E.g. https://www.racfoundation.org/media-centre/cars-parked-23-hours-a-day
https://www.transportxtra.com/publi...eway-or-garage-to-install-a-home-chargepoint/

Then you also need to consider that car ownership is skewed towards households who have off street parking.

PWC estimate 75% of car drivers have off street parking. That’s the important point as it’s irrelevant if non-car driver households have parking or not.
https://www.pwc.co.uk/power-utilities/assets/electric-vehicle-charging-infrastructure.pdf

Also others E.g. https://www.field-dynamics.co.uk/25-drivers-no-off-street-parking/


These are just the first few links for ‘how many uk homes have off-street parking’ on Google.

Not all houses with off street parking will be suitable for EV charging likewise some with street parking charge their EVs at home already. A few posters in the main EV thread do this and have posted pictures.

In reality the public charging network probably will need to support about 1/4 of drivers exclusively. Everyone else it’s just the longer trips or time spent away from home.

 

[dlockers]

Says the grey 3 litre E Class owner to the grey 3 litre 5 series owner

Ah yes, the BMW equivalent to the E43.... a 530D . The absolute pinnacle of car ownership. I can see why you are so against this move away from car ownership.

 

[Hades]

With self-driving cars there will be economies of scale and - crucially - no need for humans. Humans are the expensive component. So yes, self-driving cars will be much cheaper.

No company running automated taxis will want their expensive assets sitting idle. They will heavily focus on busier areas. So at quieter times of day/night the taxis will automatically relocate themselves to areas where more passengers will more likely to need them. It doesn't matter that one or two people in rural areas need them, it's more profitable to move the taxis to an area where 20 or 30 people will need them so surge pricing can be charged.

 

[[TW]Fox]

Ah yes, the BMW equivalent to the E43.... a 530D . The absolute pinnacle of car ownership. I can see why you are so against this move away from car ownership.

At no point have I criticised your car choice so I'm unsure why it's relevant to do so to mine. What is it adding to the topic?

I really like my car as I'm sure you do yours.

 

[Rroff]

Hah from where I live into town (nearest town of any size with a broad spread of amenities) costs like £30-40 one way via taxi or Uber and can easily be £60+ when no one wants to do... it would take some pretty convoluted setup to replace the real world need for private car ownership in rural locations.

 

[ttaskmaster]

Pretty much every survey going estimates it between 60-70%.

But it is still only an estimate, though... We do (or contract various entities to conduct on our behalf) similar studies on households and various areas of land that result in estimates of one thing or another, but our numbers are always at least 35% out.

I ask mainly because Reading are always big on trying to adopt the latest fad various traffic reduction/charging/taxation schemes, and it's one town where a sizable number of people often cannot even park within 3 streets of their house, never mind on-street outside or actual off-street... and that's before you consider whether any of those are actually suitable for charging points.
It's one of the many, many, many ranty sub-topics frequently brought up by the two people in the office that actually have an EV...

 

[SKILL]

I'm sure I've posted before but imo a lot of the arguments for no private car ownership revolve around the idea that driverless cars will solve everything and be incredibly cheap. Alongside the view of cars as purely white-boxes, which as mentioned they aren't even to non-petrolheads, as mentioned style/status plays a part. There's even that common joke, which is thoroughly un-PC these days , of women just wanting a red car - It's silly but somewhat based in reality.

For a lot of people even using Taxis for short trips and Hire cars for longer could potentially work today, my usage would probably be cheaper doing that than owning a car with the exception of trackdays/motorsport and the issue of convenience.

I'm 100% sure that in the coming years the ownership of private cars will drop, so 'car clubs' (like Enterprise etc) will increase in usage alongside if/when driverless cars become a reality making those clubs even more useful. But they'll still lack the convenience of private ownership.

Oh, that and the Cult of Elon who believe whatever random nonsense he puts on twitter.

No company running automated taxis will want their expensive assets sitting idle. They will heavily focus on busier areas. So at quieter times of day/night the taxis will automatically relocate themselves to areas where more passengers will more likely to need them. It doesn't matter that one or two people in rural areas need them, it's more profitable to move the taxis to an area where 20 or 30 people will need them so surge pricing can be charged.

Exactly, things like this also mean if you are in the rural areas not only will it be a lot longer than 5 minutes it would also have to cost enough to be 'worth' diverting a car away from a high demand area for a longer period of time.

 

[b0rn2sk8]

But it is still only an estimate, though...

Of course it’s an estimate, short of going to every single household, checking if they are a car driver and then assessing their property to see if they have a suitable parking space, it’s always going to be an estimate.

Even the full census is technically an estimate and that goes to every household but they still don’t get full coverage as not everyone completes it.

Given the ball park of where all the different studies landed, they are all well past the ‘majority can’t charge at home’ statement even when applying some scepticism on the results.

Likewise a few of the links I posted were accompanied with a ‘isn’t this terrible’ narrative attached to them meaning you’d think if the results were skewed in any way, it’s to fit that narrative and not the ‘sunny uplands’ version.

 

[Terminal_Boy]

Hah from where I live into town (nearest town of any size with a broad spread of amenities) costs like £30-40 one way via taxi or Uber and can easily be £60+ when no one wants to do... it would take some pretty convoluted setup to replace the real world need for private car ownership in rural locations.

Same here. Either €40-€50 round trip via a taxi which I’d have to book at least 24 hours in advance or wait for the daily bus to one of the nearby villages and then Shank’s Pony to home.

Good luck getting the rural French to give up their old ICEs. Local elderly neighbours all have 10-15 year old cars (usually small capacity diesels) which do 1 or 2 trips to the shops a week. Given that road salt isn’t used in the region, we’re 2 hours from the sea and these cars can be kept running with a basic maintenance for decades; these cars are going to be around until the work needed to get them through the next Contróle Technique costs more than they’re worth.

 

[Bear]

Good luck getting the rural French to give up their old ICEs. Local elderly neighbours all have 10-15 year old cars (usually small capacity diesels) which do 1 or 2 trips to the shops a week. Given that road salt isn’t used in the region, we’re 2 hours from the sea and these cars can be kept running with a basic maintenance for decades; these cars are going to be around until the work needed to get them through the next Contróle Technique costs more than they’re worth.

The French taxi drivers will throw a strop before then and go on strike plugging up the roads if driverless cars are brought in and will probably set fire to them. They attacked the cars of Uber drivers if I recall correctly.

 

[Quartz]

No company running automated taxis will want their expensive assets sitting idle. They will heavily focus on busier areas. So at quieter times of day/night the taxis will automatically relocate themselves to areas where more passengers will more likely to need them. It doesn't matter that one or two people in rural areas need them, it's more profitable to move the taxis to an area where 20 or 30 people will need them so surge pricing can be charged.

And your point is? If you go way back to my original post you'll see that I don't say that personal cars will disappear. Again, as I posted upthread, having to wait 5 minutes is a no-brainer in favour, and having to wait an hour is a no-brainer against. Somewhere inbetween is the sweet spot and that sweet spot may be different for different people. And different for the same people at different times. But understand this: people are expensive. The more you can do without people, the cheaper your service will be.

 

[dlockers]

Same here. Either €40-€50 round trip via a taxi which I’d have to book at least 24 hours in advance or wait for the daily bus to one of the nearby villages and then Shank’s Pony to home.

Good luck getting the rural French to give up their old ICEs. Local elderly neighbours all have 10-15 year old cars (usually small capacity diesels) which do 1 or 2 trips to the shops a week. Given that road salt isn’t used in the region, we’re 2 hours from the sea and these cars can be kept running with a basic maintenance for decades; these cars are going to be around until the work needed to get them through the next Contróle Technique costs more than they’re worth.

The French taxi drivers will throw a strop before then and go on strike plugging up the roads if driverless cars are brought in and will probably set fire to them. They attacked the cars of Uber drivers if I recall correctly.

Interesting timing of these posts given this:
https://www.thedrive.com/news/43727...ar-ads-to-tell-people-to-walk-or-bike-instead

 

[ttaskmaster]

Of course it’s an estimate, short of going to every single household, checking if they are a car driver and then assessing their property to see if they have a suitable parking space, it’s always going to be an estimate.

Why didn't they actually do that, then?

With the right datasets, most of which the government already has and thus does not need to rely on people returning surveys, even *I* could map and collate that data into a far more accurate report. It's essentially just matching vehicle keeper/ownership to the address layer, along with the mains and local electriticy line maps. Exclude any non-vehicular addresses and then run a suitability assessment on each property. It won't be 100% accurate compared to the dedicated site visit that each property will require prior to a charge point installation anyway, but it will be far better than some estimate.
If I can do it for smart meters, turning chambers, private pumping stations and various other assets against 18 million properties in and around London, I'm sure they could do it for this. You could even automate it in ARC or similar.

Besides, you can't just look at who drives a car and where they currently live, as they might want to move somewhere that you haven't included in your estimating, as well as excluding those who do not currently have a car but might need one later on.
You do pretty much need to assess every house everywhere... which again can be automated and still end up more accurate than an 'estimate'.

So in conclusion, it's more of a belief than an actual fact.

 

[Bear]

Interesting timing of these posts given this:
https://www.thedrive.com/news/43727...ar-ads-to-tell-people-to-walk-or-bike-instead

Not sure that has any relevance at all. Telling people to walk or cycle instead of driving is going to do very much? What would work is what they are doing in Paris by putting decent cycling infrastructure in to make vulnerable road users feel safer as that is the barrier for entry for lots of people that would consider cycling to be an alternative to the car.

 

[Hades]

The more you can do without people, the cheaper your service will be.

Just like supermarkets offer a reduced price if you help them out by using a self service till rather than an expensive staff member?