Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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dowie said:
^^^ This is good news, the guy who thought covid vaccines would take 60-80 weeks to distribute gives his take - obvs it's likely wrong which is positive, Putin will have to adjust his expectations here soon enough.

The losses they're facing are not sustainable and the population, in general, hates Putin/Russia now, even the mostly Russian-speaking parts (outside of the separatist areas).
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He could be right. Never, could be equivalent to if he can't win then no one else will have it either.
 
dave28 said:
Anyone heard any news about Putins secret lover Steven Seagal
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Makes sense, both of them are lying ********* and both are in bed with the Russian mob.

oICNhmuh.jpg
 
Efour said:
So nuclear war! I agree
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omnomnom said:
He can’t just decide to drop bombs lmao. It wouldn’t just be his call
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^^^ pretty sure this is right.

Entai said:
That is exactly how it works.

He says fire.

Everyone else follows the orders, or gets shot, and the next in command follows the orders.

If Putin says fire, missiles are launched, bombs are dropped, there is no other outcome.

It is exactly the same procedure used by every country on earth who has nukes.

Commander in chief says fire, no one will disobey.
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source: "trust me bro"

Back in reality, there are checks and balances, for example in the US the secretary of defence needs to verify the order and the VP/Cabinet can veto it if the current President has gone mad. See here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_Codes#Protocol

There is a Russian answer on quora, I don't know how accurate this is but here you go:
https://www.quora.com/If-Vladimir-P...e-person-from-starting/answer/Andrey-Yanovski

No, he could not and yes, the Russians have a system in place to prevent this. Here’s how it works:

The Russian nuclear launch control system is called “Kazbek”, it consists of three “nuclear briefcases”, codename “Cheget”. One briefcase each at the disposal of the President, Minister of Defence and Head of General Staff. Plus there are spare briefcases that are not currently in operation - spares etc.

The briefcases are locked and carried around by operator communications officers.

The whole Kazbek system is normally in “sleep mode” - you can press the buttons all you want, nothing will happen. The system activates only in case of a nuclear strike against Russia. The initial notification of a nuclear strike comes from the early warning system, the warning first arrives to a command post of the Nuclear Missile Forces (RVSN). If the attendant general validates the warning, the Kazbek goes live. It’s worth noting that the early warning system itself is pretty safe, though not entirely - in 1995 the Kazbek system was activated after a launch of a meteorological missile near Norway, because its trajectory was similar to a Trident missile. That was the only activation of Kazbek in history (aside from excercises).

When the Kazbek is live, the launch codes can be enetered and transmitted to the RVSN command post, ordering the launch. However the RVSN command post needs to receive signals from any TWO briefcases to launch the missiles. So no one person can unilaterally order the launch - there has to be at least two orders out of three people who have this right (the President, the Minister of Defence and the Head of General Staff).
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My guess how this ends from the Russian pov. They can't win this. Weather closing in and when it gets warmer the fields will be pure mud up north. So they claim they're pulling back from the north - when in reality they're getting hammered with freezing conditions, no fuel or food. They'll then call out their objectives of securing the south from Crimea up to Donetsk and Luhansk as having been met and pretend that was the idea all along.
I suspect the Ukrainians would launch a counter offensive in the south with all their new kit and bolstered by a lot of Russian armour that's left behind. No way the Russians get to keep Ukrainian cities. Probably all end up back at the original lines. Putin will really struggle to muster forces to go back into Ukraine with crippling sanctions and no-one wanting to fight fellow slavs for no good reason.

Not sure where they'd go from there. Can imagine in such a case a new, larger hardcore element in Ukraine will want to take back all their land, including Crimea - whether it's realistically possible or not? It may be political suicide to accept anything less. Donetsk and Luhansk could well be re-taken. That could be brutal with the local Russian supported hardcore left. Crimea would I guess be a bridge too far.

Only thing I'm not sure of is are the Russians going to actually try and take Odesa? Mariupol still holds, just, and I'd think Odesa would be a far harder proposition. All signs pointed at them about to attack it soon. Have they changed their minds?
 
dowie said:
^^^ pretty sure this is right.



source: "trust me bro"

Back in reality, there are checks and balances, for example in the US the secretary of defence needs to verify the order and the VP/Cabinet can veto it if the current President has gone mad. See here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_Codes#Protocol

There is a Russian answer on quora, I don't know how accurate this is but here you go:
https://www.quora.com/If-Vladimir-P...e-person-from-starting/answer/Andrey-Yanovski
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That makes it sound like they cannot be launched unless someone else fires first
 
I actually engaged with a Russian who buys into all the propaganda tonight. I follow a lot of painters around the world and he posted something on social media that led to a discourse. It's actually frightening how brainwashed some of their population is.
 
Entai said:
That is exactly how it works.

He says fire.

Everyone else follows the orders, or gets shot, and the next in command follows the orders.

If Putin says fire, missiles are launched, bombs are dropped, there is no other outcome.

It is exactly the same procedure used by every country on earth who has nukes.

Commander in chief says fire, no one will disobey.
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This is pretty much true, Russia do not have the same failsafe's/checks that western countries do (most of which have a policy of president/PM says fire the nukes and the nukes are fired).

To put it in perspective, back in the 90's Norway or Sweden launched a satellite without notifying Russia, the Russians mistook it for an ICBM launch from a NATO sub and brought the news to Yeltsin, the nuclear briefcase was set up and it got to the "push button to launch" stage, luckily it was past 9am so Yeltsin had already been drinking and he decided to break from doctrine (launch on warning) and see how it played out.
 
delta0 said:
If Visa, Mastercard, amex etc. all shutdown in Russia so they have any systems they can use for card transactions? This is pretty significant if no one can use their cards anymore.
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erm.. wow!

Is there a 'Russian Express' card? :D

On a serious note, this seems like it will harm the people directly.
 
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