Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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Scougar said:
He is the leader..he routinely has people killed for saying anything he doesn't like. What's the issue. Other than trying to scape goat Putin, we all know they support it. They want communism and power back.

Thoughts?
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Putin is no communist, nor was much of the USSR in its lifetime. It is a repressive form of fascism that the people will get. Long food queues in the cities, demand economics for its industries but weapons over tractors. People will starve in winter. Russia will not be powerful either, all it has is its nukes and they take a lot of maintenance. You cannot project power across the planet if your only threat is to nuke that country. Eventually technology will overcome that particular problem.
Russian science and technology will rely on crumbs from the top tables, intelligence gathering and cyber warfare. They will lose all input into collaborative projects.
Nothing breeds internal terror and crime like poverty and repression, black markets and smuggling. The police will be more violent, more numerous and better armed. Russians will not be able to trust their neighbours not to inform for reward.
Finally Putin has realised that his country does not work without internal air transport. So, he steals a bunch of planes which will not be certified, maintained or have licensed spares readily available. That is the country he will create in a microcosm. Piratical, criminal, reckless and dangerous to all its people..
 
Mmm yes get someone to walk a sign onto the live broadcast, a sign specifying the war as a cunning distraction from the war.

A broadcast going out to russians who are forbidden to even mention the war. But lets remind all those russians about that war they can't talk about.
 
Amnesia said:
What's stopping them from setting up a company or 2 in China/Syria or some other location and just placing orders from there, then those orders get rerouted to Russia.

I would have thought they would end up doing this for most products they needed.
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I've no doubt they'll try, but for higher end/specialist stuff it's probably far harder to get away with it, especially things like aircraft parts where the manufacturers know how often those parts need changing, and there is fairly tight control on the trade of them for safety reasons with a lot of documentation.

So boeing/airbus/rolls royce etc will likely be on the lookout for companies that are suddenly ordering more parts, and watching where they are going.
I'm also not sure how easy it is to set up a "legitimate" looking aircraft parts middleman, given the level of scrutiny the entire industry has in regards to parts, and the cost of them.

Even for "common" and low end stuff it's hard to cover if you're buying enough to keep parts of an embargoed countries industry/consumer supply going, and if nothing else it means the cost of those bits is likely to go up well over what any exchange rate change would suggest, which means you might still be able to get the parts but it's now much more expensive at a time when your currency is down the toilet and your foreign reserves/gold reserves are being run down just to maintain essential things.
 
Freakbro said:
Pretty sure at the start of this "military experts" were saying Russia only had 4-5 days to take Kyiv or it was all over?

These sorts of posts seem to be doses of copium for Western audiences.
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What does being all over mean.

They sure as hell aren't making progress and have swapped to obliterating what they have been unable to control.
 
Freakbro said:
Pretty sure at the start of this "military experts" were saying Russia only had 4-5 days to take Kyiv or it was all over?

These sorts of posts seem to be doses of copium for Western audiences.
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That was what the FSB assured Putin would happen.
 
Hotwired said:
What does being all over mean.

They sure as hell aren't making progress and have swapped to obliterating what they have been unable to control.
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Would that not have been the plan if Ukraine did not surrender ?

Surely if the (male) population has been forced to stay and have set up ambushes in the cities then Russia isn't going to just keep rolling its soldiers/tanks in to get shot.

Putin clearly feels he has gave them a fair chance and warnings so now the bombardment starts.
 
Hotwired said:
What does being all over mean.
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That they didn't have the resources or supplies to go any longer. I was asking the question as its what I seem to remember, but I'm not going to be able to find a specific post in this thread now!

They sure as hell aren't making progress and have swapped to obliterating what they have been unable to control.
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Hagar said:
That was what the FSB assured Putin would happen.
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Oh for sure the initial tactic was a quick blitzkrieg and have Ukraine crumble in front of the might of the Russian forces which failed spectacularly, but their standard tactic they have reverted to is one of a long protracted conflict where they grind everything to dust in front of them.

I appreciate this conflict is far more intense than their recent wars, in terms of their losses and the economic sanctions far more severe, but the talk of them not being able to sustain things for longer than a week or two just seem to be a palatable message for our side. Though of course, I couldn't be happier if I turned out to be wrong in this instance!
 
Here is what it would take to enforce a no flight zone.
TL;DW It's more than just sending a few fighter jets to ukraine. There is a lot of support needed to enforce it and keep pilots safe.

 
Freakbro said:
Oh for sure the initial tactic was a quick blitzkrieg and have Ukraine crumble in front of the might of the Russian forces which failed spectacularly, but their standard tactic they have reverted to is one of a long protracted conflict where they grind everything to dust in front of them.

I appreciate this conflict is far more intense than their recent wars, in terms of their losses and the economic sanctions far more severe, but the talk of them not being able to sustain things for longer than a week or two just seem to be a palatable message for our side. Though of course, I couldn't be happier if I turned out to be wrong in this instance!
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It's clear that Russia has major logistic problems, major supply problems, and every day it's in Ukraine failing losing soldiers, tanks, planes, etc. and burning money on artillery shells the worse things get for it. Meanwhile, Ukraine's future looks bleaker as the damage to the country rises but it's chances of winning the conflict rise. Vast amounts of superior Western weapons are coming into the country, and while pounding the Eastern cities into dust may destroy resistance in those cities, it's hardening the resolve of Ukraine's main forces in the West and of their supporters outside the country.

This is a much tougher conflict than any Russia has faced since WWII, and it's worse placed to fight than it has ever been. The planned and structured economies of the Soviet era were garbage but at least they made stuff, after 30 years of banditry the country has been run into the ground and what manufacturing it has is almost totally dependent on Western machinery to function - machinery it can no longer get support, parts, and repairs for. Now, the war may end up helping the part of the economy that matters most to Putin, at least in the short term - as he and his core support all make their riches from Gas and Oil, and prices are going up - but to fight and win a protracted war they need a war economy capable of making at least vaguely modern weapons and they simply don't have it, and pivoting to it would require fundamental changes in how they have set things up. A setup that is in place to protect and preserve Putin's power and the power of his inner circle.

The numbers on paper point to the conclusion you've reached; but I think it's turned out to be a mirage. Underfunded, corrupt, and with anyone competent deliberately purged to stop it become a threat, Russia's army simply can't deliver. Putin's Russia is a paper bear.

But, you're right, maybe this is just cognitive bias on my part. It's the nicer narrative to believe, and while I try and read from a range of sources, it's not like I'm any kind of Russian or military expert, maybe I am just picking up on the ideas that are happier. But we've seen many times before that all the military might in the world can get bogged down and lost in military misadventures that grind to a halt. Particularly when the theatre of war is getting outside support: think the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, or the US's wars in Korea and Vietnam. It doesn't seem to me that Russia being unable to win this war is something so extraordinary that it beats all expectation.
 
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News from past 10hrs: - can't add sources for everything as it'll take too long

*Zelensky Adviser Reveals That Peace With Russia Could Be Established by May – Sputnik.
*CNBC’s Tausche: According to US and International Officials, Leaders Are Exploring Having an Extraordinary Conference in Brussels Late Next Week, Which Would Include Biden and Other Heads of State. These Officials Point Out That the Planning Is Still in the Early Stages.
https://sputniknews.com/20220314/pe...-may-zelensky-adviser-reveals-1093875621.html
https://twitter.com/kaylatausche/status/1503507235389022212

*Ukraine’s President Zelensky: Talks With Russia Will Resume on Tuesday.
*On Tuesday, Japan Decided to Restrict Payments and Capital Transactions by Freezing the Assets of 17 Russian Individuals – MOF.
*Japan’s Chief Cabinet Sec. Matsuno: We Are Deeply Concerned About Russian Activity Near Japan.
*Japan’s Chief Cabinet Sec. Matsuno, When Asked About the Ukraine Crisis: I Urge China to Take Appropriate Action.
*The US Warns Europe That Russia Is Requesting Armed Drones From China.
*War Could Be Over by May, Says Ukrainian Presidential Adviser – RTRS – https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...ys-ukrainian-presidential-adviser-2022-03-15/
*China’s NBS Spokesperson: The Impact of the Ukraine Crisis on the Chinese Economy Is Limited, but It May Raise Import Prices.
*EU Regulators Rule Out Ban on Bank Payouts Over Ukraine – FT – https://www.ft.com/content/63b96976-233a-47ec-919a-c1192eb4071e
*The Chinese Embassy in London: The US Claim That Russia Requested Military Assistance From Beijing in Ukraine Is Malicious Disinformation.
*According to the Chinese Embassy in London, China Has Been Actively Promoting Peace Talks in Ukraine.
*Russia’s Gazprom Continues Gas Shipments via Ukraine, Tuesday’s Volume at 109.6 Mln Cubic Metres.
*Russian Defence Ministry: Russian Forces Have Taken Control of All Territory in the Kherson Region in Ukraine – IFAX
*France’s Finance Min. Le Maire: European Independence of Energy Sources Is an Absolute Priority.
*France’s Finance Min. Le Maire: New Sanctions Package to Be Implemented Today.
*France’s Finance Min. Le Maire: The EU Will Adopt the Harshest Package of Sanctions Ever.
*Flows on Russia’s Yamal-Europe Gas Pipeline Have Been Halted – Gascade Data.
*China Foreign Ministry Says G20 Is Not Appropriate Forum to Discuss the Ukraine Issue

Past hour:

*Ukrainian President’s Office Confirms the Polish, Czech and Slovenian Prime Ministers Will Visit Kyiv Today. – http://apne.ws/0q8OzxF
*ECB’s De Cos: Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Will Cause Adverse Consequences on Economic Activity and Propel Inflationary Pressures.
*Ukrainian Presidential Advisor: Russian Military Is Not Presently Trying to Take Kyiv.
*China Warns of Retaliation if Hit by Russia Sanctions Fallout – FT – https://www.ft.com/content/2b46df50-c6ab-4d58-9eef-5d3fb86905b1
*European Union Bans Rating of Russia and Russian Companies by EU Credit Rating Agencies – European Commission
*Ukrainian Presidential Advisor: We Are at a Fork in the Road: Either There Will Be an Agreement at the Negotiations or Russia Will Go on the Offensive.
*EC Pres. Von der Leyen: We Will Maintain Russian Pressure Until the Invasion Is Over.
*Volkswagen Says Limiting Business to Democracies Is Not a Viable Business Model for Auto Manufacturers
*Kyiv’s Mayor, Klitschko, Announces 35-Hour Curfew in the Capital From Tuesday Evening to Thursday Morning. - https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1503661902584504325
*The Russian Central Bank Has Announced That It Will Suspend Buying Gold From Banks as of March 15th.
*Maersk Chairman: The Company Is No Longer Purchasing Russian Shipping Fuel.
 
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*UK Stops All Government-Backed Exports of Finances to Russia and Belarus – Statement
'The UK government has announced it will no longer issue any new guarantees, loans and insurance for exports to Russia and Belarus.'
'Import tariffs on key products (incl vodka) which will represent a 35% point hike on current rates.'
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-cuts-off-export-finance-support-to-russia-and-belarus
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-announces-new-economic-sanctions-against-russia
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...on-exports-of-luxury-goods-to-russia-l0rxybcy

*The UK Is Expected to Declare a Ban on High-End Luxury Goods Shipments to Russia, as Well as Increased Levies on Hundreds of Essential Products.
*Gas Flows Through Yamal Pipeline Reverse – Flow Eastwards From Germany to Poland – Gascade Data
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https://twitter.com/AllawiSsemanda/status/1503667618317840384
 
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