EV prices
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But one has fuel duty the other has none yet. Average 4.5 all year seems rather keen for every EV too
And yet the Corsa E owner probably had a lower total cost of ownership because the depreciation on the car was near zero.
That’s the point I have been making, the actual purchase price isn’t what determines how much it costs to own. It’s the depreciation plus any financing and running costs.
The post I was responding to specifically said prices now.
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But you can't predict those and the longer it goes on the bigger the risk that it stops being a thing. There will obviously become some point where a used Corsa E doesn't cost almost as much as a new one - nobody is going to be paying £23k for a decade old Corsa. But when will it occur? Nobody knows. Meanwhile the petrol Corsa gets cheaper and cheaper - at £13k now your risk is already much lower than it is with the Corsa E at £10k more.
It's worrying for the future though, isn't it? It shows us that the base fuel before tax is often considerably cheaper for ICE cars. It's only through tax treatment that it's reversed. This is great currently but it won't always be like that - what will the cost per mile be when we have to pay a reasonable amount of tax on the fuel too?
But the benefit is rather small versus the on cost of the car. What’s getting average 4.5mpkWh
You keep bringing up this point and it has already been effectively debunked and frankly not on topic. This is about prices for people BUYING EVs, not selling. Keeping on topic, the buyer of that Corsa E is taking a massive £10k risk the price won't tank and they have a very overpriced car.
Me: Almost £10k price increase for the exact same car, just for an electric engine and considerably less range. This is not helping EV adoption.
You: Aye but the person who sold that EV might have made money.
Utterly irrelevant to the point being made about those seeking to buy an EV.
True but the closer we get to 2035, it’s fair to assume the depreciation on an EV will out perform that of an ICE car, as they did long before the current market conditions.
You’ll never be able to tax the fuel in any meaningful way. There is no realistic way to differentiate the fuel use from a home supply, thus it would cause huge inequalities to tax public charging in any meaningful amount.
You could bet your house on any additional tax being applied to both ICE and EVs to further disincentivise ICE.
What EV gets 4.5mpkWh average all year round? Even a TM3 standard range is averaging about 4.1 over a a full year of weather variations.
Of course it’s relevant, the cost is the total cost of ownership, not the purchase price. The longer you keep the car, more more fuel savings you’ll get but the less you’ll benefit from the lower depreciation. As we get closer to 2035, it’s a fairly safe assumption that non-ICE vehicles will continue to outperform their ICE equivalents in terms of depreciation.
Most people buying new cars work on a 3 year cycle, it’s not that hard to predict, there is a whole PCP industry based on it.
None. Also take off 10% charging losses and that’s assuming you never precondition the car which is ignored by the trip calculation.
I don't think it's fair to assume this at all. I don't know what will happen but its probably fairer to assume the opposite.
Usually, new technology replaces old technology over time because it is simply better - more convenient, cheaper and generally just a superior experience all round. However this isn't the case with Electric cars. They have many advantages, there are various areas where an electric car is clearly superior to a conventional car. But there are as many areas where an electric car will never offer the flexibility and convenience of a conventional car. This is why governments are having to ban conventional vehicles - because the benefits are not significant enough to just allow the market to replace conventional cars with electric ones over time.
This means its fairly easy to see a situation whereby it becomes more and more difficult to buy a new petrol car - perhaps before 2035 given it will make no real sense to investment in continued production - meaning the only source of these cheap, easy to refuel vehicles that require no power grid will be the used car market. There will be no more petrol cars manufactured and the supply of used ones will reduce over time. We've seen what happens to prices when supply is reduced over the last 2 years..
I agree with you - this is probably how it will work.
But I think it'll mean we look back on the petrol era and remember just how cheap driving used to be. The rush to electric cars for lower running costs is very short term and very much suits the task of getting people to move over. Long term, I think we'll find that running an electric car ends up being quite a lot more expensive than running a petrol one. Petrol is, comparatively speaking, a very cheap fuel. Most of the expense of it comes from taxation, not product cost.
Of course you can tax it very simply. It could be a mileage tax levied on a montly basis for example. Your computer on wheels simply calls the taxman with the current odometer reading and the difference is calculated from the previous month and deducts the tax from your account by direct debit. This is no different than how many current billing systems work in pay for view or utility bills.
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Absolutely nobody in 2019 predicted the 3 year depreciation cycle of any car sold on in 2022. Normally you are right, its very easy to predict, but the last 2 years have been far outside of any reasonable predictions made at the time. The market is currently very disrupted by significant supply side issues - nobody knows when this will change making continued residual forecasting very difficult.
Nobody would bother paying the sort of money they now pay for used cars if they could just walk in and drive off with a new one for the same money. It's because they cannot that this situation has appeared.
Indeed, it is market forces at play here. Car prices in general are up because of supply issues and EV prices are even worse due to fuel prices are through the roof driving up demand. Ironcically ICE prices are roughly static but are still higher compared to pre-pandemic prices.
When supply eventually normalises (and it will) we will see these inflated EV prices drop. I would not risk the £10k premium on an EV over an equivalent ICE due to this volatility.
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Whats the price difference for a new one?
Why do you think that wouldn’t also apply to new ICE vehicles to further disincentivise their purchase? ICE cars are pretty well connected these days too.
There has always been a large premium between a BEV and an ICE, even when factoring government grants. Typically that’s been in the £7-8k range, so yes it’s higher, but it’s not that much higher given how much prices have risen in real terms. The current market conditions don’t really show signs of changing significantly in the short term.
My comments relating to depreciation apply to the last 12 years and not just the last 18 months. Baring a few exceptions, EVs have always held their premium in the used market.
Indeed. EVs are much more efficient, but exaggerting that efficiency is going to raise eyebrows among other EV owners.
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Company cars make up 50% of all new cars so it daft to consider cost of ownership purely through Auto Trader prices.
Current 2022 prices show a similar price premium for the EV versions, (£28,555 EV vs £19,490 ICE both GS Line models) so the EV depreciation is similar. So EVs prices (without grants) are a fair bit higher and I believe are going to disincentivise people from buying EVs. It is certainly pushing my purchasing decision far more towards ICE.
I am a big fan of EVs and would prefer to get an EV than an ICE. But I know that £10k in extra costs would never be recouped over a 3 or 4 year ownership.