Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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Haggisman said:
How many people do you think would have still protested against the Iraq war in 2002 if they'd known there was a good chance of being imprisoned/beaten (possibly to death), with similar repercussions for their close family?

It's easy to say they should have stood up against it whilst being safe in the UK, with our relatively civilised police force and mostly fair legal system.
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Protesters in Iran might disagree, they suffer under an equally oppressive regime yet have managed to protest loudly.

Either way, refusing entry for 100k's Russians trying to escape conscription would gum up the works of their security systems nicely.
 
Maple Leaf said:
I strongly disagree with your analysis. If you are a Russian man who is being conscripted to be sent to fight in an offensive war against a peaceful neighbouring country (Ukraine), which you don't agree with, then you are in a very vulnerable position where you are at high risk of being persecuted. If you refuse to submit to conscription and go on the run you will be arrested, beaten up and imprisoned. If you go along with it, but try to creatively find ways to avoid going to the battlefield (conscientious objector etc) you are also likely to get arrested, beaten up and imprisoned. If you try to desert then you will be arrested, beaten up and imprisoned (or shot if it happens on the battlefield). If you refuse to follow orders to torture, rape, kill Ukrainian civilians/PoWs then you will be arrested, beaten up and imprisoned/shot. If you surrender to Ukrainian forces then when the Russians get you back you will be arrested, beaten up and imprisoned. Russian prisons are also extremely brutal places where draft dodgers/deserters/dishonoured soldiers get regular beatings from prisoners/guards.

Therefore, Russian men who are avoiding being drafted to fight in an offensive war against a foreign country are indeed fleeing 'war, violence, conflict or persecution', they are hardly voluntary emigrants like the economic migrants coming here from India, Jamaica etc.

I think that Russian men in that situation should receive political asylum. But, obviously, they have to be checked out carefully so we don't end up bringing in more of Putin's spies and saboteurs.
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Your assessment relies on the following to be true
  1. These people were protesting the war before the consrciption was expanded.
  2. These people were unhappy with their life in Russia prior to the expanded consricption.
I am not saying none of them fall in to this category, but the timing would imply the significant majority are simply leaving, not because they are protesting the war, or the Russian political system, but purely because they don't want to go to war. Prior to now they were happy in blissful ignorance and letting others do the dying and had no issues with what "mother Russia" was doing.

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Looks like lots of something being towed across the Atlantic today from all the air to air refuellers up on both sides - not looked into what though.
 
woppy101 said:
It is when you have NATO watching every move, they would see a build up for a counterattack very early, TBH we know what time most of the general staff take a **** on a morning
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Still need the forces to be able to deal with eventualities as well as keep forward momentum going. If it came to it Russia can move a lot of stuff still from their Far East, etc. fairly quickly. Despite the talk of and in some cases real equipment shortages, etc. they are still managing to dredge up train loads of T-72s, etc.
 
The UA are retaking territory at an alarming rate. This is getting very embarrassing for the Russians.
Rroff said:
My worry is if Ukraine has the man power to hold these gains, especially liberated territory near the Russian border.
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At some point, the UA would normally need to consolidate and fortify the territory they've gained to prevent a Russian counter offensive.

Problem is morale is low in the Russian Army, they're poorly equipped, supply lines are being cut and they're just simply abandoning their positions and retreating, so the UA can probably feel they can simply keep pushing.

I know people keeping citing NATO military hardware and training as a reason for these UA gains but if you aren't united in the cause and don't have the will to fight then it accounts to nothing.
 
ChrisLX200 said:
Protesters in Iran might disagree, they suffer under an equally oppressive regime yet have managed to protest loudly.

Either way, refusing entry for 100k's Russians trying to escape conscription would gum up the works of their security systems nicely.
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Without wanting to belittle Iranian repression it does seem like there is much more public support for the Iranian protests than the Russian ones, and the general population is more active. Seems like the Iranian ones at least have a chance of success, and there are stories about crowds of people on busses etc physically overpowering the morality police. General atmosphere around the protests seems quite different, compared to Russia where the authorities seem to have more effective control over the population, and people are still grabbed out of protests by goons etc (not to mention identified on video camera for picking up later on).

I'm not sure I'd be protesting if I were in Russia today, the personal cost (both to me, and to family members / friends who may also face repercussions) seem very high for a very limited benefit, especially when the majority of the population still seem to be on the government's side.

I don't know what the 'right' thing do would be, but I'm certainly glad I don't live in Russia.
 
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GuruJockStrap said:
The UA are retaking territory at an alarming rate. This is getting very embarrassing for the Russians.


At some point, the UA would normally need to consolidate and fortify the territory they've gained to prevent a Russian counter offensive.

Problem is morale is low in the Russian Army, they're poorly equipped, supply lines are being cut and they're just simply abandoning their positions and retreating, so the UA can probably feel they can simply keep pushing.

I know people keeping citing NATO military hardware and training as a reason for these UA gains but if you aren't united in the cause and don't have the will to fight then it accounts to nothing.
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Indeed, certainly didn't help the Afghan army!
 
GuruJockStrap said:
The UA are retaking territory at an alarming rate. This is getting very embarrassing for the Russians.
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Their frontline morale is obviously in the toilet and logistics woeful which is a big part of that. A prepared force of 5000ish soldiers could have dug in at Lyman and held it for months even without reinforcement.
 
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gailjon said:
I don't think the Russian Army is in any shape to commit to a counter offensive though.
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Their logistics and subsequently willingness to fight are through the floor theres phones calls intercepted by ukranians between russians on the ground between their commanders and back home etc they're crying out for more equpment supplies and especially air support and the officer literally replies **** off its just an utter shambles they have to use phones as their regular military isssue comms simply don't work you almost feel sorry for the buggers
 
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Rroff said:
Their frontline moral is obviously in the toilet and logistics woeful which is a big part of that. A prepared force of 5000ish soldiers could have dug in at Lyman and held it for months even without reinforcement.
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Yes, it is surprising that even comparatively large numbers of Russian troops are unable to hold.

They are either rubbish quality troops, morale is poor or their preparation and defensive positions are poor.

Or, most likely, all of those.
 
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