Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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I don't think Russia will use a battlefield nuclear weapon, they'll threaten and shout about it but I don't think they will.

The risk of dragging NATO in is far too high; if they use such a weapon - and the fallout blows into Poland or Sweden, or other unintended consequences occur, it could totally provoke a NATO response.

The other problem is the use of such a weapon by Russia I think would terrify the Russian population, an escalation like that and the knock-on effects - could trigger absolute anarchy in Russia.
 
On the one hand I just don't see a tactical nuke benefitting Russia - high likelihood of losing military assets abroad to NATO forces, further deterioration in diplomacy with other countries, increased tensions within the Russian leadership, and unpredictable effects on Russian public opinion.

But on the other hand Putin could see it as a chance to force some more favourable terms out of fear, or who knows what else... Maybe he thinks any resulting NATO attack will help galvanise public opinion further, or maybe thinks it will be enough to push the Western far left & right campaigners to campaign more strongly for Ukraine to make concessions to Russia and stop fighting... After all invading Ukraine in the first place didn't seem like a sensible idea but he did it anyway.

I don't think it will benefit him, but maybe he thinks there's a small chance it will.

If it does benefit him then it will just be the start of nuclear threats though, and he'll be threatening nukes to get his way at every turn.
 
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The guy is just an animal though. The number of ordinary people whose lives have been used and abused by him and his oligarchical cronies runs into millions. I hope he runs into someone's crosshairs and soon.
 
I must admit my prediction on this conflict was completely wrong. From the moment the "special military operation" was announced, I thought that Russia would overwhelm the country very quickly, shock and awe style. I'm glad I was wrong, but what a mess :(
 
bainbridge said:
I must admit my prediction on this conflict was completely wrong. From the moment the "special military operation" was announced, I thought that Russia would overwhelm the country very quickly, shock and awe style. I'm glad I was wrong, but what a mess :(
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I had horrible visions at the start they would press along the south to Transdniestria in Moldova.
 
lnoton said:
If a tactical was used, where? Are russian troops falling back planned/expected in order to create some space for such an attack.
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The fall back appears to be one of disarray - lots of equipment and people abandoned, half-hearted attempts to move ammo supplies back that get abandoned due to running out of time, etc. there doesn't seem to be anything planned about it even as a feint.

bainbridge said:
I must admit my prediction on this conflict was completely wrong. From the moment the "special military operation" was announced, I thought that Russia would overwhelm the country very quickly, shock and awe style. I'm glad I was wrong, but what a mess
:(
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The lack of the use of the landing ships was an odd one - I know there was one attempted amphibious landing repulsed but other than that they don't seem to have even attempted to use them.
 
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Putin has no idea where the frontline even is so his only option is to either bomb his own 'territory' or something deep inside Ukraine. The first option is going to be embarrassing because it will be ignored and the second option will result in the wrath of an allied intervention the likes of which hasn't been witnessed ever.
 
Rroff said:
The fall back appears to be one of disarray - lots of equipment and people abandoned, half-hearted attempts to move ammo supplies back that get abandoned due to running out of time, etc. there doesn't seem to be anything planned about it even as a feint.



The lack of the use of the landing ships was an odd one - I know there was one attempted amphibious landing repulsed but other than that they don't seem to have even attempted to use them.
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The use of home grown anti ship missiles seem to have had an effect. Also repurposed brimstones, harpoon missiles on trucks?
 
Rroff said:
The fall back appears to be one of disarray - lots of equipment and people abandoned, half-hearted attempts to move ammo supplies back that get abandoned due to running out of time, etc. there doesn't seem to be anything planned about it even as a feint.



The lack of the use of the landing ships was an odd one - I know there was one attempted amphibious landing repulsed but other than that they don't seem to have even attempted to use them.
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The hope is then they don’t have adequate 2nd lines of defence until Kherson itself. Which, if that’s the case, they’ve pretty much lost it as UA can just blitz anything coming across the river and pinpoint target troops in the city. They’ll hopefully bail out before they get caught like that which will avoid the civilian population getting caught up anymore than they are.
Question is do UA halt or attempt to get a bridgehead over the river and push on away from the city themselves? Russia might flatten it if they halt there. Can’t imagine RU have bothered with too much defensive lines on that side of river so could be ripe for attack down to crimea. Or swing east toward melitopl/Mariupol hooking up with forces working down from the north.
Could all house of cards for Russia quite rapidly. Hopefully.
 
ChrisLX200 said:
Well you were going on about what a hard time these conscript escapees are having and I'm contrasting that with the very real dangers Ukrainians are facing fighting Putin's army. The difference isn't even close.
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The reason I take a special interest in these people is because in 2002 I was part of a research scientist exchange program run by NATO which sought to help Russian scientists spend time in (better equipped) UK research labs and facilitate scientific research collaborations between Western and Russian scientists. I met a large number of young Russian scientists working in a major Russian city* and a couple of Ukrainian scientists working with them too.

It was obvious to me how the younger and better educated you are the less likely you are to believe the Kremlin's propaganda. A majority of elderly Russians clearly do believe the preposterous nonsense published by Russia 1 etc, but I can assure you that the sort of Russians I was interacting with back then would have laughed at it. Obviously, the thought of the people I knew, or their sons/husbands/brothers, being called up and turned into kebab meat on the battlefield to serve Putin's psychotic ambitions is painful to me.

* (I'm not going to be too specific because we don't know who could read this in Russia and I don't want to risk anyone I knew getting into trouble.)
 
Transnistria's population has been cut by over a third in just 30 years so it has no future even with Russian 'aid' and it will accelerate towards it's inevitable doom now that Russia will never be able to absorb it.
 
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StriderX said:
Putin has no idea where the frontline even is so his only option is to either bomb his own 'territory' or something deep inside Ukraine. The first option is going to be embarrassing because it will be ignored and the second option will result in the wrath of an allied intervention the likes of which hasn't been witnessed ever.
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Indeed a brace of cruise missiles some B52 Stealth bombers and a whole heap Russian airbases, Logistics depots and maybe the odd ship taken out with precision.....
 
Rroff said:
The lack of the use of the landing ships was an odd one - I know there was one attempted amphibious landing repulsed but other than that they don't seem to have even attempted to use them.
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I don't think they were going to attempt it in Odessa until/unless their ground forces had progressed further and were perhpas able to come in simultaneously on another flank... they never got that far and everything else started turning into a **** show up North. Then of course the anti-ship missiles later, I guess the Ukranians would have still hit landing craft or smaller vessels trying to deal with Ukranian mines with NLAWs, Javelin etc.. too even if they had to early on.
 
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