Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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To me it seems like Putin has accepted that he cannot take Ukraine but in doing so has a set a red line that they must take back the four annexed regions. I can't see Putin accepting anything less that this.

Aren't the Ukrainians steamrolling into those regions already and taking chunks out of it?
 
To me it seems like Putin has accepted that he cannot take Ukraine but in doing so has a set a red line that they must take back the four annexed regions. I can't see Putin accepting anything less that this. Use of small yield tactical nuclear weapons could certainly achieve that, but given how Ukraine's current fast paced counter offensive the best outcome would be to create a no go around around the four annexed regions but at the cost of probably contamination of those 4 annexed regions themselves. If the use of these weapons was strictly limited to Ukraine and any associated fallout minimized to NATO countries I can't see any real escalation other than additional sanctions on Russia.

I don't know how dropping nukes helps Putin win. Would Ukraine fold if he did that or just get even angrier and determined to win? I think the latter, Russian atrocities so far have bolstered Ukrainian resolve rather than breaking them. Meanwhile, dropping a nuke would massively increase pressure on Western countries to give even more support to Ukraine, even if they don't respond militarily. They'd also likely lose what little support they have outside Russia as well, including from China and India.

But I think military involvement by Western powers would be inevitable. Nukes cannot be allowed to become weapons that are actually used in conflict.
 
I'm my mind I can sum up the will there won't be based on Putin's mental state.

If he really does have mental issues and really is in it for completely egotistical reasons, doesn't care about his kids or is deluded and believes his own rhetoric then I feel ww3 is on the cards.

If he's of sound mind and he's just sabre rattling we probably won't.


Which is it? I hope it's the second. But most of his actions points to some sort of disconnect with reality.

Even starting this war benefits Russia in no way whatsoever. That points to ego, genuinely fearing what he says about the NATO threat or some other delusion. But it's a delusion none the less.



When someone is mentally comprised, but dangerous, like he is its not dissimilar to a hostage negotiation.
But this is one man, holding the entire world to hostage.

I'm sure America knows more, much more. They may even know if he's lost it.
We sure don't know.


I wouldn't want to bet on the outcome.
 
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Aren't the Ukrainians steamrolling into those regions already and taking chunks out of it?

This is another point. Russia has declared the 4 regions now Russian. But they didn't control all of those territories when they had the vote, they controlled even less this week when the Duma voted for it, and they control less and less of those areas every day. At what point does he run his playbook and say right now you've attacked Russia (which is what he has said would be the effect of Ukraine attacking any of the 4 regions). What parts of those areas would be considered ripe for a low yield Nuke? If he goes anywhere central or western Ukraine he risks fallout over EU / Nato member soil. If he does in the East he's going to hit the very people / areas that he and Russia have said are now Russian.

Where is his red line now? Does he genuinely expect Russia to take back the areas they've lost the last few months? (which he has said the last few days they will).
 
We can send you postcards from Australia (as firewood) if that helps...

E. I just read Bidens story on the abc news site and theres nothing about causing Armageddon as a usa choice.


Not sure Australia would escape this. Any country supporting Ukraine will get them. Hopefully there are some ABM systems down there.

If a bomb did drop I dont think I would have time to use toilet roll.
I’d be under the stairs with loads of metal on top of the stairs. Will hide out in there for a few days.
 
Do nuclear weapons actually achieve anything for Putin? The Ukrainian troops are so spaced out that it would take many nukes to remove the troops. So a single nuke isn't achieving anything and they'd need to bomb it into the stone age. And then what use is the land? I suppose it still has the gas and oil but no one with disposable income is paying him for it. He also has the threat of all his forces being eliminated via NATO. So he wouldn't get to annexe the Ukrainian land if that scenario occured. He also risks world nuclear war. Does launching nuclear weapons make Putin more likely to be deposed in Russia? These are all calculations Putin will be making.

Putin didn't simply invade Ukraine on a whim but positioned his troops at the border for months. He wanted to see if any NATO peace force would come in to protect Ukraine. Then after seeing the US withdraw from the Ukraine and he saw that NATO was not coming to Ukraine's protection, he invaded. He underestimated Ukraine's own defenses and how much NATO countries would aid Ukraine. If his intelligence told him how everything would unfold, he would not have entered this war. He thought he had western Europle over a barrell with gas and that he'd get to pull another Crimea. He didn't know about the contigency planning that NATO countries and Ukraine had planned.
 
Has anyone got latest map/bullet point of where at. Going all through the Nuclear stuff pulls away from the actual following of what happening on ground and wondered what had changed in the last 48h ish?
 
Netflix are missing an opportunity to stream Threads and The Day After (1983). After all there is no such thing as bad publicity :)
 
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Not sure Australia would escape this. Any country supporting Ukraine will get them. Hopefully there are some ABM systems down there.


I’d be under the stairs with loads of metal on top of the stairs. Will hide out in there for a few days.
doing what..constantly wiping your ass lol?
 
Netflix are missing an opportunity to stream Threads and The Day After (1983). After all there is no such thing as bad publicity :)
Ohh come on..Threads!?.....that gave me nightmares for years, then they released a 1080i version, why did I watch that!
 
Im not sure - i dont know if Australia has any missile systems. If there are, they are never in the news. I'd say we need the full set here - as Poohbear country has the lot and may turn nasty.
 
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