Mortgage Rate Rises

Affordability will determine prices, not supply.


Not when people have to finance the costs. Affordability > Demand > Supply.

Doesnt matter how few, or many houses you have in supply if people cant afford them then prices will fall until they can.
While we’ve got huge amounts coming over from Hong Kong and cash buyers then mortgage rates won’t make a difference. I think we are overestimating the impact of interest rates. The ONS has the number of properties owned by mortgage as 28%
 
But they clearly are. I can only speak anecdotally but I've been keeping a close eye on house prices locally while waiting to sell my house abroad and buy in the U.K. Around where I live I'm seeing large drops on a number of houses I have saved on rightmove - so much so we're going to hang fire on buying just to see how this pans out.

Interestingly, large numbers of houses have come onto the market with no onward chain, I'm assuming buy to let investors on interest only mortgages looking to get out quick.
Asking prices? Also it’s summer the house down cycles are always Summer and Winter.
 
If BoE tip us into a recession that causes a cascade of job losses? Then all bets are off.

Exactly. If the rate rises are to take serious effect then a lot of people need to reduce their spending... which they aren't because they are still on low fixes. If these rates are still here in 2 years then a large chunk of home owners with mortgages will have to remortgage during high interest periods and their disposable income will plummet. Recession is almost guaranteed and jobs will be lost. Home will be lost.

I've mentioned this before.
Who wants these (or can even have them if they wanted) 4 bed huge houses way out of easy commuter range?

My parents whole village is like this. Before an average couple could easily end up in one. No more. I wouldn't be surprised if the mid tier 3-4 bed modest sized houses hold up best and these super houses fall most.

They aren't good for investment either.

I think its the £600k-1m range that could see quite a large drop. Those were affordable for couples on decent wages before but not any more. People are wary of what the future holds as well. Will the government make gas heating horribly expensive? Will general energy costs remain really high. Do you have the time and money to maintain a large 4 bedroom detached house when both of you work and you have kids?

Whatever happens it will be interesting.
 
Asking prices? Also it’s summer the house down cycles are always Summer and Winter.
While I don't doubt that that is true but still, for example, I've seen two just recently, one dropped £375k to £325k, the other £350k to £300k. A three bed semi just came on the market next to Ely at £270k - I havent seen anything that cheap since I've keeping an eye on things over the past two years. There are many other examples

As I say - its just anecdotal and also, I unfortunately live in one of the most expensive places in the country (Cambridgeshire) where house prices are frankly insane. We're thinking of fleeing oop norf (Selby or surroundings) on the basis of house prices and I've been keeping an eye on things there. While there do seem to be smaller drops in prices in that area, house prices are'nt quite so bonkers in the first place.

I do expect an overall drop in house prices in line with affordabilty but I suspect some areas will be hit much worse than others - data seems to bear this out.
 
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Someone just needs to buy it to rent out surely.....gotta keep that train running

People probably don't want to rent an expensive house in the middle of nowhere. BTL mortgages are also more expensive than normal ones and you are running the risk of buying a property just before the market crashes. The government are also on a mission to make BTL a nightmare.

People sometimes just need to accept that the £200,000 they bought 20 years ago that was worth £900,000 a year ago might actually only be worth £800,000 now. Just because it was theoretically worth X doesn't mean it still is. The fact our house has gone up ~20% in the last 3 years should perhaps suggest that if it dropped 10% it wouldn't be the end of the world. It would really be a drop at all.
 
Large deposit I'm guessing?
Depends where you live. £85k would damn near buy my parents house outright.

It's why there is so much context required when anyone talks about this... like well done and everything but your house is a deposit on my house etc. Not that that is a good thing.
 
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Depends where you live. £85k would damn near buy my parents house outright.

It's why there is so much context required when anyone talks about this... like well done and everything but your house is a deposit on my house etc. Not that that is a good thing.
It's Cambridgeshire, east Midlands. Houses aren't super expensive here, but not cheap either. An average 4 bed is about 350k.
 
Depends where you live. £85k would damn near buy my parents house outright.

It's why there is so much context required when anyone talks about this... like well done and everything but your house is a deposit on my house etc. Not that that is a good thing.
but being nearly the same size i'd rather be paying the 85k :P ... just don't get the south and house prices ??
 
A general question

For argument's sake. If you had 200k left on your mortgage and 240k in your investment account, would you sell 200k worth of investment to clear your mortgage?
Replying to myself here with the benefit of 6 months hindsight.

Thank God I didn't do this.

There's been a huge uptick in the market and we've pretty much added 65 grand worth of value to our investments, just by holding it.

Same question again now, but this time I get to keep a respectable size of money in the markets too. Or keep chancing it and it increases again.

Longterm it'll probably keep increasing, but man, having the option of being mortgage free is so tempting.
 
Replying to myself here with the benefit of 6 months hindsight.

Thank God I didn't do this.

There's been a huge uptick in the market and we've pretty much added 65 grand worth of value to our investments, just by holding it.

Same question again now, but this time I get to keep a respectable size of money in the markets too. Or keep chancing it and it increases again.

Longterm it'll probably keep increasing, but man, having the option of being mortgage free is so tempting.
Age plays a big part in it. If you can afford another cycle (10-15 years) then diamond hand it.
 
Replying to myself here with the benefit of 6 months hindsight.

Thank God I didn't do this.

There's been a huge uptick in the market and we've pretty much added 65 grand worth of value to our investments, just by holding it.

Same question again now, but this time I get to keep a respectable size of money in the markets too. Or keep chancing it and it increases again.

Longterm it'll probably keep increasing, but man, having the option of being mortgage free is so tempting.

You cannot use hindsight in that situation, something is either a good or bad decision without knowledge of the future, if the market would have gone down in that timeframe then you can reword your post for the opposite.

More to do with your mortgage %, your age, the size of your mortgage and investments, income, time remaining etc etc.
 
Age plays a big part in it. If you can afford another cycle (10-15 years) then diamond hand it.

I just turned 43. In my heart I know I'm going to diamond hand it. But, but ..... but, it sure would be damn nice paying off the mortgage.

Put it like this. If the market cuts in half in the next 6 months, I'd chuckle, curse a bit and get on with things. If I sell, clear the mortgage and it doubles. I'd be inconsolable for years.
 
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You cannot use hindsight in that situation, something is either a good or bad decision without knowledge of the future, if the market would have gone down in that timeframe then you can reword your post for the opposite.

More to do with your mortgage %, your age, the size of your mortgage and investments, income, time remaining etc etc.
All stuff I know, but the monkey brain being what it is ...

I'm 43 so I have a somewhat generous portion of time on my side, but I do occasionally feel stifled by the mortgage. And it really is a small one, all things considered.
 
All stuff I know, but the monkey brain being what it is ...

I'm 43 so I have a somewhat generous portion of time on my side, but I do occasionally feel stifled by the mortgage. And it really is a small one, all things considered.

If I can keep our mortgage at under 1k a month I don't think it will be too bad. Ie not a burden. I'll reduce the term each renewal (or extend) to keep the monthly payment the same.

I've done quite well saving even with that burden.

From January to December 2023 will probably be the biggest spend I've ever done on non important stuff.

New outdoor clothes, really expensive bucket list holiday, van.


Why? Because our outgoings are under control. And I've built up a mental "safe buffer" that could last me 2 years.


I've now finished saving like a fiend and ready to actually live a bit
 
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If I can keep our mortgage at under 1k a month I don't think it will be too bad. Ie not a burden. I'll reduce the term each renewal (or extend) to keep the monthly payment the same.

I've done quite well saving even with that burden.

From January to December 2023 will probably be the biggest spend I've ever done on non important stuff.

New outdoor clothes, really expensive bucket list holiday, van.


Why? Because our outgoings are under control. And I've built up a mental "safe buffer" that could last me 2 years.


I've now finished saving like a fiend and ready to actually live a bit
TBH, we're in the same position here. I spent about 8 years of my life going without, just to set ourselves up.

Our DTI expenses are 11.36% of our monthly income. I going to wait until it's sub 10% and then let rip. Nothing crazy, just some nicer things. Stuff we've started doing anyway, but more guilt free now.

We're looking at buying a new car for the missus. And not just a 'good enough' beater like she's got now, but something nice. I'm still trying to scare up the courage to ask over on Motors for their opinion.

Hell, last night I even bought Diablo IV on the PS5, at full asking price!
 
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