Mortgage Rate Rises

NZXT30 said:
BoE numbers are cooked of course. Any kind of service, property, goods and equities worth buying has gone up way more than the rate BoE is reporting.

Just the £ devaluation against the dollar is staggering before you add the rest.
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Regardless of that point of view. Just invest the money and you will completely offset that by doubling what you have every 7-8 years in an index tracker.
 
Jono8 said:
If you are on only 1.27%, wouldn't you be far better off not paying it off, and earning a load of interest on the money you would have used instead?
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Yes. I'll pay it off at the end of the 4 years (assuming rates similar to now). Until then, anything I put aside for that will be earning interest as part of the plan to raise £ to pay it off.
 
Looking to remortgage when my fix ends in February, and I've just found a deal with Nationwide for 4.89% fixed for 5 years, which all things considered seems pretty decent right now!
 
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Crizzy said:
Looking to remortgage when my fix ends in February, and I've just found a deal with Nationwide for 4.89% fixed for 5 years, which all things considered seems pretty decent right now!
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I think I would take that as well. While I can see it coming down a bit in a few years. Can't see it being sub 4% for a while.
 
danlightbulb said:
That's fine but if forecasts are continually way out then there is something wrong with the assumptions. Decisions are made off these forecasts, so it is important to be close enough.
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Sorry but your following the same failure to understand.

The forecasts are not continually way out. Thats the claim of those who wish to convince you to dismiss them.
Most are within acceptable margins of error. When they are not they are generally due to some kind of shock.

You cannot predict say a war breaking out, or a pandemic.

Normal professional forecasting processes will include a feedback, they analyse what caused a difference, if they could have predicted that, amend logic etc.

Also the timescale is important.
If I said to you predict next weeks shopping bill you would probbaly be able to make a decent guess, based on the last fe weeks.
What if I said I want a forecast for the next 12 months, 24 months, 10 years?
Suddenly factors become far more relevant that you can ignore for next weeks. Inflation, will there still be 2 people in your house, etc etc
 
TheOracle said:
You've not met my mrs have you :cry:
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I dunno, maybe some years ago ;)

You need to amend the process if its out of control, give her a few shillings and send her off with them and a list.

But what your saying is a perfect example of a variable that is difficult to predict. If you have someone who will on a whim change her purchasing habits then it makes the shopping forecast more difficult.
The economy has many of these so they are forced to take positions and use them.
 
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