The 5 year makes more sense to me, even if you get 'burned' by rate falls you have to factor in the savings you make whilst it is cheaper, and you also have to think about setup fees. Longer fixes mean longer before you need to potentially pay setup fees again or take a fees-free product with higher rate.
I mean the chances are if rates fall they won't plummet overnight nor in the immediate short term. So with a short term fix you lose money short term and are gambling on saving more than that long term term. You could even have a situation where rates are lower in a few years time and you are still better off being on a longer term fix because there isn't enough 'runway' to claw back the overspend in the early years.
That said ERC are more of an issue with longer fixes.
I mean the chances are if rates fall they won't plummet overnight nor in the immediate short term. So with a short term fix you lose money short term and are gambling on saving more than that long term term. You could even have a situation where rates are lower in a few years time and you are still better off being on a longer term fix because there isn't enough 'runway' to claw back the overspend in the early years.
That said ERC are more of an issue with longer fixes.