*** The AMD RDNA 4 Rumour Mill ***

[Blackjack Davy]

So you are now getting in the terrioty of fabricated prices or inflated prices here which only GPUs are doing.

The demand for GPUs is no different, if you only made 5000 and sell out, then is it really demand if say Apple manufactured 100000 and sold 80000? whats greater demand here?

Also yes people do buy Macbooks in the droves, its a popular product for a reason.

Since no-one appears to have any figures you can bandy about theoretical numbers all day long so the point is moot. At the end of day its simple supply and demand once the initial stock has dried up then you either sell out entirely and sit with empty shelves until they restock or you increase prices to limit demand so theres at least something on the shelf which appears to be where we are at the moment. You can beat your chest all day with anguish or rage about retail scalping or unfair pricing but the situation is what it is. What is certain is that AMD's launch wasn't a paper launch unlike Nvidia's and have clearly shifted many more units

 

[mmj_uk]

The problem is that AMD/NVidia aren't building up stock ahead of release, they're paper launching and then trickling out products at inflated prices. If they spent 3 months building up stock and then launched you wouldn't get most of the problems we see with GPU launches today but it would also be less profitable for them.

 

[ChosenName]

The problem is that AMD/NVidia aren't building up stock ahead of release, they're paper launching and then trickling out products at inflated prices. If they spent 3 months building up stock and then launched you wouldn't get most of the problems we see with GPU launches today but it would also be less profitable for them.

Given that AMD stock seems to have been in place for launch much earlier in the year that was deferred, I don't think that its fair to suggest that AMD had not built up any stock of the cards ahead of release. NVidia, on the other hand....

 

[mmj_uk]

Given that AMD stock seems to have been in place for launch much earlier in the year that was deferred, I don't think that its fair to suggest that AMD had not built up any stock of the cards ahead of release. NVidia, on the other hand....

Well then why is there such a shortage? OCUK only had a thousand or so 9070XT on launch day didn't they? AMD/NVidia aren't launching with enough numbers and because of that you get scalpers who see an opportunity and compound the problem.

 

[ChosenName]

Well then why is there such a shortage? OCUK only had a thousand or so 9070XT on launch day didn't they? AMD/NVidia aren't launching with enough numbers and because of that you get scalpers who see an opportunity and compound the problem.

The flippant answer is "because there were more buyers than cards".

A different take on it might be "until initial sales indicate strength of demand the company may be reluctant to invest too much production cost in to cards that have not yet been proven to be desirable to prospective purchasers".

Then there's the fact that both NVidia and AMD have more profitable uses for their finite number of available wafers.

 

[Sargatanas2511]

Well then why is there such a shortage? OCUK only had a thousand or so 9070XT on launch day didn't they? AMD/NVidia aren't launching with enough numbers and because of that you get scalpers who see an opportunity and compound the problem.

Gibbo said somewhere they sold 5000+ cards on launch day.

 

[TheRealDeal]

Well then why is there such a shortage? OCUK only had a thousand or so 9070XT on launch day didn't they? AMD/NVidia aren't launching with enough numbers and because of that you get scalpers who see an opportunity and compound the problem.

According to AMD they have sold 200k 9070/xt since launch.

https://www.techpowerup.com/334343/...er-200-000-radeon-rx-9070-and-rx-9070-xt-gpus

 

[mmj_uk]

The flippant answer is "because there were more buyers than cards".

A different take on it might be "until initial sales indicate strength of demand the company may be reluctant to invest too much production cost in to cards that have not yet been proven to be desirable to prospective purchasers".

Then there's the fact that both NVidia and AMD have more profitable uses for their finite number of available wafers.

If they build up plenty of stock ahead of launch you won't have that problem.

Instead today all you get is news stories ahead of release about how it will be difficult to buy one due to shortages and then scalpers eyes light up which makes everything twice as bad, websites collapse because everyone is desperate to buy one before stock runs out and prices as a whole become ridiculous due to the shortages. All of it could be solved by building up sufficient stock ahead of launch like they used to before paper launches became fashionable.

Gibbo said somewhere they sold 5000+ cards.

Yeah I just read the original thread but I assume that 5000 includes the non-XT so 2000-3000 is probably accurate, it might even be less since the 9070 XT is a fully formed chip and presumably in lesser supply.

 

[mmj_uk]

According to AMD they have sold 200k 9070/xt since launch.

https://www.techpowerup.com/334343/...er-200-000-radeon-rx-9070-and-rx-9070-xt-gpus

How many can they manufacture in a 3 month period?

 

[welshrat]

from reading around, demand was unprecedented, at least for AMD so I am not sure we can really apportion blame here.

 

[ChosenName]

from reading around, demand was unprecedented, at least for AMD so I am not sure we can really apportion blame here.

Indeed - the missing ROPS, black screen driver issues and apparent lack of availability of 5000 series GPUs seems to have caused a "perfect storm" for NVidia, to AMD's benefit - however AMD can't magic up tens of thousands of GPUs instantly to react to the increased demand.

 

[Sargatanas2511]

If they build up plenty of stock ahead of launch you won't have that problem.

Instead today all you get is news stories ahead of release about how it will be difficult to buy one due to shortages and then scalpers eyes light up which makes everything twice as bad, websites collapse because everyone is desperate to buy one before stock runs out and prices as a whole become ridiculous due to the shortages. All of it could be solved by building up sufficient stock ahead of launch like they used to before paper launches became fashionable.



Yeah I just read the original thread but I assume that 5000 includes the non-XT so 2000-3000 is probably accurate, it might even be less since the 9070 XT is a fully formed chip and presumably in lesser supply.

From what I have read online over the last few weeks, the XT is in far greater supply than the non XT. I don't have any statistics myself to back this up though.

 

[ChosenName]

If they build up plenty of stock ahead of launch you won't have that problem.

Instead today all you get is news stories ahead of release about how it will be difficult to buy one due to shortages and then scalpers eyes light up which makes everything twice as bad, websites collapse because everyone is desperate to buy one before stock runs out and prices as a whole become ridiculous due to the shortages. All of it could be solved by building up sufficient stock ahead of launch like they used to before paper launches became fashionable.

Companies are not our friends - they are in it to make money - and tying up significant cost in unsold inventory, even ahead of launch, can be argued to be an unnecessary risk - when there's no guarantee that the stock is going to be well received and therefore in demand - more especially when allocating wafers to dGPU die production from a finite wafer supply is effectively leaving money on the table (as those wafers would be more profitable from a $/mm² perspective if used to produce more profitable products in other market segments that the company produces products for).

 

[mmj_uk]

from reading around, demand was unprecedented, at least for AMD so I am not sure we can really apportion blame here.

200,000 according to TheRealDeal, what percentage of those sales were scalpers though? 25%? 50%? would there have been shortages if everyone wasn't being told for months on end prior to launch to expect shortages? also to put 200,000 into perspective Sony are reported to have sold 2-2.5million PS5's on launch day(s).

 

[GoogalyMoogaly]

from reading around, demand was unprecedented, at least for AMD so I am not sure we can really apportion blame here.

I mean AMD (via board partners) supply the graphics cards, so if there's not enough supply then that is on the people that are supposed to be supplying them (AMD & board partners).
I think we all understand why there's a lack of supply bit that doesn't means there's nobody to blame.
Retailers can't sell them if they don't have them from board partners, board partners can't produce them if they don't have the GPUs from AMD, AMD can provide them if they don't get them from TSMC, TSMC have a finite capacity. But also, AMD need the silicone for other things, things that likely make them more money.
So it's likely greed that caused AMD to not make more. But AMD are a business and greed is sort of the name of the game and we all expect it. This is why these companies don't deserve our charity, because they don't really do anything for us in return.
I'm sure Nvidia are in a similar position.

So while we understand the reasons behind it, I don't think that means they're not to blame.

 

[mmj_uk]

Companies are not our friends - they are in it to make money - and tying up significant cost in unsold inventory, even ahead of launch, can be argued to be an unnecessary risk - when there's no guarantee that the stock is going to be well received and therefore in demand - more especially when allocating wafers to dGPU die production from a finite wafer supply is effectively leaving money on the table (as those wafers would be more profitable from a $/mm² perspective if used to produce more profitable products in other market segments that the company produces products for).

but we're always being told ahead of these launches to expect shortages so they obviously know that the demand is there.

 

[welshrat]

200,000 according to TheRealDeal, what percentage of those sales were scalpers though? 25%? 50%? would there have been shortages if everyone wasn't being told for months on end prior to launch to expect shortages? also to put 200,000 into perspective Sony are reported to have sold 2-2.5million PS5's on launch day(s).

Agreed, however a console launch is very different to an AMD GPU launch where I don't think they can have been expecting anywhere near these numbers. Pc gaming is still quite niche for releases like this and most buy Nvidia

 

[ChosenName]

but we're always being told ahead of these launches to expect shortages so they obviously know that the demand is there.

In an ideal world there would be no other products competing for a company's wafer allocations and there would be as many cards available as were needed - unfortunately this world is not that world.

Demand for new products is to be expected, finite supply is also to be expected, some customers being disappointed with lack of availability / price / etc. is an inevitability.

 

[ChosenName]

Agreed, however a console launch is very different to an AMD GPU launch where I don't think they can have been expecting anywhere near these numbers. Pc gaming is still quite niche for releases like this and most buy Nvidia

Indeed - and I'd not like to be AMD if supply quantities and / or schedule of delivery of APUs to Sony or Microsoft were not met, as I expect the penalty clauses might be rather onerous.

 

[Sargatanas2511]

Agreed, however a console launch is very different to an AMD GPU launch where I don't think they can have been expecting anywhere near these numbers. Pc gaming is still quite niche for releases like this and most buy Nvidia

I think this is the bit people don't understand. There's no point in AMD going all out and producing 10million gpus when they don't know how the market will react to them. That's a crazy business risk.

They built a good number without risking major financial loss.