Soldato
- Joined
- 30 Nov 2011
- Posts
- 11,524
False equivalence fallacy.
Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)
- Thread starter mcast123
- Start date
They most certainly do, but I wouldn't trust my savings to them.
The S&P 500 has been brilliant for the last decade, but that is no guarentee that it will continue to be.
My dough is raising nicely
Talking of both transfers and QBTS, I'm incredibly annoyed about the growth of QBTS
I am currently in the process of moving from Denmark back to the UK and I recently sold 3000 shares at around $3, it was just easier than transferring across borders. Just seen it's now up at $8.40. You win some you lose some I guess
Edit: Jeez it's even worse than I thought. Just had a look in Nordnet and I sold them earlier than I remember at $2.25 on 22/11
Well this becomes an even more stupid decision as more time goes by. It's at $17.20 today, that's what - £32,000 I've missed out on
And this is why I don't suggest to people what shares to buy... if someone would have brought into Greggs they would have taken a 1,906 and made a ~13.5% but they would have seen their shares drop by ~12% first... lol
Mixed bag of replies regarding the T212 pies then.
I was looking at them as I want to spread the risk, returns and dividends across multiple companies. Seeing as some pies can have over 100 companies it seems a bit tedious and time consuming to do it myself. Thinking more of a fresh butcher's pie rather than a Fray Bentos!
Absolutely, all comes down to when you buy/average down/up unless you are in from the IPO.
Just buy into an all world ETF like VWRP within your T212 stocks ISA .. It's in £ so no exchange.
It's got about 3500 companies in so you get fractional shares.
That sounds like it does what you want?
That's an accumulation one so gains are simply bought straight back in, so if you want dividends as well you could have a similar, second ETF to run alongside it... that pays dividends?
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Anyone here been using this tool? https://mrktedge.ai/ Seems fairly new too and I stumbled across it few months ago.
From what I've gathered by using it so far it's 99% AI-driven to help assist retail traders and has some pretty cool features such as the economic calendar, real time news feed, sentiment analysis, even a trump tracker to keep on top of what he's saying and its real time impact
. Those real time headline impact analysis is really helping especially when that guy opens his mouth and starts talking about trade wars one day and world peace the next.
I have been following Gold in particular on this site and it's been scary accurate amidst all of the fundamentals that have been driving this and stock markets with heavy volatility over the last few months. The AI seems to work pretty well with stocks too.
Seems like a bit of a steal for $50 per month given that the news terminal alone costs in the region of tens of thousands of dollars and here you have it with AI insights to break it all down.
If anyone else has used it be interested to hear your thoughts or if anyone is looking to get it? I've been using ForexFactory and TradingView for the longest of times but after using this for a few months I've finally ditched them - got everything in one place now.
From what I've gathered by using it so far it's 99% AI-driven to help assist retail traders and has some pretty cool features such as the economic calendar, real time news feed, sentiment analysis, even a trump tracker to keep on top of what he's saying and its real time impact
. Those real time headline impact analysis is really helping especially when that guy opens his mouth and starts talking about trade wars one day and world peace the next.I have been following Gold in particular on this site and it's been scary accurate amidst all of the fundamentals that have been driving this and stock markets with heavy volatility over the last few months. The AI seems to work pretty well with stocks too.
Seems like a bit of a steal for $50 per month given that the news terminal alone costs in the region of tens of thousands of dollars and here you have it with AI insights to break it all down.
If anyone else has used it be interested to hear your thoughts or if anyone is looking to get it? I've been using ForexFactory and TradingView for the longest of times but after using this for a few months I've finally ditched them - got everything in one place now.
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Think of those all world ETFs as pre made pies if you want, they contain thousands of companies.
Yeah it's up to 17 USD nowWell this becomes an even more stupid decision as more time goes by. It's at $17.20 today, that's what - £32,000 I've missed out on
Make that 18.
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Heh we all want that big win
If I had bought back in on the dip (I sold some of my NWG and IAG to mitigate risk)...well I would be 30% richer now!
Don't conflate fundamentals with prior performance - these are more or less the exact opposite. And using prior performance is much closer to rolling a dice. If you focussed on fundamentals then you would be value investing, aka Berkshire Hathaway style investing, which coincidentally if you invested in BRK you would be beating S&P500 over the last 10 years.
The problem is you are focusing on the last 10 years and assuming that will hold true in the future. Look at S&P between 2000 and 2015 for comparison.
There are general cyclic patterns of US, vs Europe, vs japan , vs developing world where one stock index outperforms the others. There is zero guarantee the US stocks will continue such a growth.
The other factor is FX. An investment only in S&P exposes you to currency risk. If the USD tanks like Trump has just done then your investments can be doubly exposed.
An all world tracker, even if sold on USD, is exposed to different currencies including significant euros and GBP based on the company constituents.
And the exact same reasoning is why for most people an all world tracker is better to balance risks, especially if you don't live in the USA.
In the end investing is always about trading risk and reward. Investing solely in S&P500 is increasing risk due to less diversity, you are hoping this increased risk is met with higher gains but there is no hard rules to say that would always be the case. If there was, then no one would invest in other companies or ex-us ETFs, but considering the experts all hedge and invest globally should tell you something.
Instead of investing in S&P you could invest in QQQ and got even high gains. Again, reducing diversity, adding risk and seeing higher gains. Stock picking 5-10 stocks like Nvidia is just one more step in accepting more risk.
Soldato
- Joined
- 10 Sep 2003
- Posts
- 5,019
- Location
- Midlands
Market taking a hit after bonds dropped with Trumps tax bill
Soldato
- Joined
- 30 Nov 2011
- Posts
- 11,524
I didn't say to invest solely in any one thing, I said what my recommendation for someone just starting out would be. I did say I was liquidating some of my positions and increasing my position in s&p 500, but thats not the same thing as saying everyone should be solely in it.
Even not including my primary investment property, S&P is only about 25% of my total portfolio, but I do think it will continue to see good growth. I've actually had the most gain as a percentage currently on bitcoin, but I wouldn't recommend getting in to that right now as I think there's significant risk of another pull back before it gains again.
Biggest gain in monetary value would be in property, but as a percentage per year it's overshadowed by almost everything else and generates the biggest tax burden, so I'll be out of it over the next 2 years.
I'm also not focusing on just the last 10 years, I just commented that if I'd followed your advice when I started with stocks and shares 10 years ago I would be worse off now. I'm looking at the complete history of different options when deciding what I do. The decision I made 10 years ago still holds true now imo.
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