Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)
- Thread starter mcast123
- Start date
Exactly. People saying it's a huge opportunity need to zoom out the charts more than 1 day.
I understand your rationale but I don't think the AI boom is over. In fact I suspect we are nearer the beginning so scope to run for a while. However, at some point this will lead to unemployment which in my view will accelerate in any recessionary period. The facts are that inflation is sticky, tariffs do not help and we are only at the start of Trump's tariff impact. Countries around the globe are struggling for growth and many are burdened by increasing debt. A trade war is not what the global economy needs. AI is probably the only thing that bails out economies in the short term.
For sure its all finely balanced and we will see a crash but I dont see it this year.
My t212 S&S ISA is full, I have too much cash in savings, and only getting 4.55%AER set to reduce pretty much to base rate variable -I was thinking in T212, opening a standard investment account and just buying some VWRP or some ETF inside it..
How does it work with tax? I think when you cash it in I'll pay 20% CGT on any gains? as a basic rate payer - would I have to declare that, or would I wait for a letter from HMRC?
How does it work with tax? I think when you cash it in I'll pay 20% CGT on any gains? as a basic rate payer - would I have to declare that, or would I wait for a letter from HMRC?
Its hard to navigate.
In my opinion net jobs will go down. We will see how that plays out.
I agree AI will increase and may well be one of the few stocks to hold. And for now any major tech stock will do.
I'd actually say meta is one of the best. Instagram for the under 40s and Facebook seems more popular for over 30s..both meta. Have huge customer retention. Massive data volumes.
Hardware like nvidia will always be needed. And those stocks are probably fewer than the soft companies.
Retail will suffer and anything that depends on the masses having cash. House prices I think will fall away over time. I think the UK is vulnerable as we don't have much tech. Same as Europe really.
But the broader impact if jobs do start to decline YoY will be interesting.
Netflix I would say is at risk. As AI can churn out films.. And jobs go (ie subscribers) ... And these companies seem to require endless growth for stock gains? This doesn't add up for me.
Wonder what the next 10 years will hold. A lot of change I feel. I'm concerned and intrigued in equal measure. Concerned for my job. But intrigued as to if there is net good coming from all this.
AI + climate change + inflation/tariffs + more xenophobia... A bit of recipe for some crazy years ahead.
I'm living for the moment more that's for sure and less concerned at saving for a long retirement.
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I wouldn't buy ETFs or accumulation funds in the GIA. The tax is fiddly and there is more to consider than just CGT like excess reportable income (ERI) in the ETFs or finding out how much dividends were paid in accumulation funds. You still have to pay tax on those dividends outside of your £500 allowance even if the fund manager re invested them.
Personally in the GIA I use UK domiciled funds. Income versions, the tax situation is simple then.
As for CGT, if its above your allowance you will need to declare it.
Personally in the GIA I use UK domiciled funds. Income versions, the tax situation is simple then.
As for CGT, if its above your allowance you will need to declare it.
If you've got years/decades to go then it won't really matter at all.
18% for basic rate taxpayers on anything over £3k profit.
You need to declare it to HMRC yourself when you sell. But you could split the sales over tax years and therefore reduce the bill etc.
Soldato
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- 2 Jul 2019
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Anyone holding AMD? I don't own many shares overall, but have quite a bit in AMD, so might get out soon.
I went in quite hard on the Trump dip more than I usually do on a single equity. bought at ~96. Sold at 156. Happy to pocket that trade.
If we get another tech correction I’ll probably dip back in again mind.
I still think that unless something serious changes in AI over the next few years there will be a big boom for certain industries where AI has created an almighty mess that needs unpicking. At least thats my cope in the software business. AI is still absolutely awful in a huge amount of cases unless you are keeping a very close eye on it and from my own personal experience, the people who are most excited about AI are the managers who don't really know what they are doing but just wing a lot of stuff. It makes them feel like they can take over the world without anyone else. They are the ones with little technical knowledge but the capacity to go all in on AI and make a colossal mess.
Those dips are tiny compared to the tariff falls.looking at my overall graph, this current dip and recovery look very much like when the tariff terrorism was at its height last time, if i've got my dates right..
Soldato
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- 16 Jan 2003
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- Nottingham
Stocks are already recovering well since Friday.
Soldato
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- 13 Jul 2004
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- Stanley Hotel, Colorado
The AI is false boom or just needs (much) more training?
Dollar index peak at 100 recently. If DXY trends lower it would match commodity strength
Wall of worry they call it, seems familiar anyhow
www.marketwatch.com
Surprisingly I dont think thats the last time I see that written. I dont think its topped
Dollar index peak at 100 recently. If DXY trends lower it would match commodity strength
Wall of worry they call it, seems familiar anyhow
Gold will reach a new all-time high possibly within the next three months, says Citi
Citing a worsening U.S. growth and inflation outlook, Citi analysts have boosted their view of gold, saying the commodity could reach a new record over the next three months. A Citi team of analysts led by Maximillan Layton bumped their near-term price forecast over the next three months to $3,500
