Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

silversurfer said:
The AI is false boom or just needs (much) more training?


Surprisingly I dont think thats the last time I see that written. I dont think its topped

Dollar index peak at 100 recently. If DXY trends lower it would match commodity strength

Wall of worry they call it, seems familiar anyhow
www.marketwatch.com

Gold will reach a new all-time high possibly within the next three months, says Citi

Citing a worsening U.S. growth and inflation outlook, Citi analysts have boosted their view of gold, saying the commodity could reach a new record over the next three months. A Citi team of analysts led by Maximillan Layton bumped their near-term price forecast over the next three months to $3,500
www.marketwatch.com www.marketwatch.com
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Whatever way you cut it, AI is a massive boom and will go bust at some point. Companies are getting insane valuations on the back of saying "...with AI". You can't get investment in many areas at the moment without saying "its got AI". Even if AI becomes transformational, most of the companies involved right now will die because they aren't the AI company and even if their AI use takes off, so will everyone elses.

And the issue with current AI is that its still just a fancy word prediction. It still gets really fundamental stuff completely wrong. Its being trained on more and more junk data as well. As more stuff on the web is AI slop, thats what its being trained on. Thats why it confidently talks about 8 days in a week. A half marathon being 13km and hallucinates weird amalgamations of 5 different sources which makes absolutely no sense to anyone who actually knows the answer.
 
Everyone thinks it's 'different this time' and crazy valuations are justified and that has literally been a hallmark of bubbles since forever.
 
AI is just a fad word for most companies are using to bring in interest, like dot-com in before the 2000s.
We are a few decade away from seeing who the winners are, hopefully I be retired by then and don't care but who in the 1990s thought a little online book shop named after a rain forest would be one of the winners in dot-com while some of the mega tech companies that invested heavy in it have either disappeared or a mere shell of a company that they were.

Companies are just sticking AI in the company description like companies were just putting dot-com in the 90s.

AI will change the way we work, like the printing press, type writer then the computer.. we may live in a world where companies no longer need to employe the best and the brighest, just as many chimps with type writers as possible, paying peanuts just to bash on a keyboard and then letting AI piece together the next shakespeare.

The companies that are collecting and storing data are the ones to look out for, they are the ones storing the mud and rock ready to sell to companies at a later time when they are able to mine it for something of value.
 
moon man said:
I took profit on apld but got back in again for the long term (yeah right ! ) also building up big bear but mindful of earnings coming up.
Coreweave I missed out on the first time ( it .quadrupled ) so may jump on the next push up
My biggest worry for my shares at the moment is there's no vegan option on the 911 targa 4 GTS seats when I spec it up with the profits ?
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Both rising over 10 percent today ( at the moment) if big bear had gone down I would probably have bought more ,fool and his money.soon parted eh
 
booyaka said:
Have you ever considered just leaving it invested??

Time in the markets is better than timing the markets....
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It is invested... I put 8k into VWRP and 2k into VEUA just now

I had 40k in a t212 cash isa, but Id already maxed my allowance - i didnt realise I could simply move money frm my cash isa to my s&s isa with a few clicks, lol

edit..ive still got 30k in my cash ISA..tempted to shunt another 10k into S&S..
:o
 
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If it were me I would be drip feeding it in over the next few weeks/months, dollar cost averaging and not risk putting it all on now which could be close to the peak.

Valuations are very high. First hard data on Friday confirming tariffs are damaging the US economy (and downward revisions to previous months jobs data). Rate cuts more likely but people need to get out the Pandemic era obsession that low rates = good for stocks, if it comes against more bad data and declining earnings, markets will not react positively.

The impact of AI on company earnings has been phenomenal, so many earnings beats in the US at the moment and many companies have been able to absorb the costs of tariffs without affecting the bottom line thanks to AI efficiency gains. However, if the health of the economy deteriorates that will not be sustainable. There is also a very real risk that inflation does actually pick up again which would make rate cuts less likely under Powell, or if Trump appoints someone more dovish who cuts rates anyway in an inflationary environment, markets will aggressively selloff as the Fed is no longer acting independently.

There are loads of positives too just want to highlight the risks as we are late bull stage in the cycle and a lot of people on here seem to be talking about putting big money on the markets. The BTD market action yesterday looks a lot like complacency to me, the warning signs started to flash red on Friday.
 
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Struggling a bit here with T212, does anyone know if it's possible to add investments to a new pie? I want to setup a recurring deposit and auto invest and fairly sure the only way to do this is by setting up a pie, but I can't see how I can bring my existing investments into a new pie?
 
Maccy said:
Struggling a bit here with T212, does anyone know if it's possible to add investments to a new pie? I want to setup a recurring deposit and auto invest and fairly sure the only way to do this is by setting up a pie, but I can't see how I can bring my existing investments into a new pie?
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3 dots in the pie -> import investments
 
Barks said:
If it were me I would be drip feeding it in over the next few weeks/months, dollar cost averaging and not risk putting it all on now which could be close to the peak.

Valuations are very high. First hard data on Friday confirming tariffs are damaging the US economy (and downward revisions to previous months jobs data). Rate cuts more likely but people need to get out the Pandemic era obsession that low rates = good for stocks, if it comes against more bad data and declining earnings, markets will not react positively.

The impact of AI on company earnings has been phenomenal, so many earnings beats in the US at the moment and many companies have been able to absorb the costs of tariffs without affecting the bottom line thanks to AI efficiency gains. However, if the health of the economy deteriorates that will not be sustainable. There is also a very real risk that inflation does actually pick up again which would make rate cuts less likely under Powell, or if Trump appoints someone more dovish who cuts rates anyway in an inflationary environment, markets will aggressively selloff as the Fed is no longer acting independently.

There are loads of positives too just want to highlight the risks as we are late bull stage in the cycle and a lot of people on here seem to be talking about putting big money on the markets. The BTD market action yesterday looks a lot like complacency to me, the warning signs started to flash red on Friday.
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All good points but if he’s investing for the long term then all of those points would be minor dips.
 
slinxy said:
AI is just a fad word for most companies are using to bring in interest, like dot-com in before the 2000s.
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its a fad but it's useful.

overhyped as hell though, things like chatgpt , grok etc are mostly just curated search engines that can pull misinformation of hallucinate content

The data they train on is already tainted so they can never be reliable unless humans carefully curate millions and millions of websites worth of data for them to train on.

No doubt theres tools that save business a lot of money in the short term... in the long term its probably too expensive for most companies and just helps create more monopolies
 
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We are still thinking of AI in terms of a search engine, I hope it is or will become a lot more capable and directed.
AI has significantly improved lung cancer detection.


“Nearly 70% of lung cancer cases are now found at stage I or II, well above the national average of 46%,"
“In just six months, over 60 patients started treatment earlier, significantly improving their chances of survival.”
www.forbes.com

How AI Is Helping Cancer Patients: Saving Lives And Money

AI is revolutionizing cancer care, not only improving outcomes but also making treatment more affordable. Helping the million of people who are diagnosed each year.
www.forbes.com www.forbes.com
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If thats the case its a game changer that is hard to argue with, surely consistent strong demand will occur.


I dont have T212 but many platforms they state returns on a per annum sometimes over 3yr or 5yr etc. So thats more of a market perspective of that asset

www.investopedia.com

Return on Investment vs. Internal Rate of Return: What's the Difference?

Internal rate of return (IRR) and return on investment (ROI) are two popular ways to measure the success of investments. Learn the differences between them.
www.investopedia.com www.investopedia.com
'too much money'
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Nice problem to have, I would always think of SIPP because you will get your tax added back on

I dont believe the market is falling till next April or will be lower. Cash will be lower, I grew up with rates at 5 to 10% and we're nowhere near to hard money, its an easy money market.



fK6Tg61.png
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arknor said:
No doubt theres tools that save business a lot of money in the short term... in the long term its probably too expensive for most companies and just helps create more monopolies
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Luckily AI is super cheap to train and run eh. Lucky all these AI companies aren't absolutely haemorrhaging money in the hope that they manage to make it good enough to actually sell for the sort of money they would need to in order to turn a profit.
 
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