Soldato
- Joined
- 13 May 2003
- Posts
- 9,160
The cost of failure is very expensive in the renewables heavy market. If your gas fired power station wasn't due to run but get's BOA'd on (dispatched at short notice) you have a degtree of risk on the start. In addition the forward market closes 90 minutes before present so you can't change you contracted position. So if for any reason you trip off you are exposed to the instantaeous balancing market price. This BM price has been going up for years because there is less dispatchable reliable generation and when you are scraping the barrel for the last available generator they astart charging a higher price. One out of simple supply and demand but also a risk factor. Say your cost of generation is £100/MWh for a short up and down run to cover a peak but the next cheapest generator is £200/MWh you know that during that start if you are late or trip (most likely to happen on a start) you are then exposed to that higher price so you factor in a risk premium and so does everyone else. When wind drops and we start getting to the last 10% of reliable gas geenration those balancing market cost ramp up. £500/MWh has been common for short periods over the last few years. But don't worry not dispatchable intermittent wind and solar are ace and are going to make electricity so cheap it won't be worth metering and they will heal every ill in the World including industrialisation, yeah you won't be living an economy with any of that crap soon.50p/kwh = £500/Mwh!
somehow i highly doubt so?