Winter 2025/2026 - Cold or Mild?

[Blackjack Davy]

After going out in autumn cycling kit yesterday afternoon with arms and legs completely covered, it's looking like a summer kit day again in Hampshire, blue skies and 18C maximum forecast!

Same its much too warm for the time of year barely even need a sweatshirt on and its bone dry and no change for next two weeks either just more of the same. Some day the heating will come on, maybe.

I've been ice skating on Petersfield lake when we lived there in the sixties. I do remember some bitter winters on the motorbike. However it may be milder today.

Can't remember the last time a pond froze over around here must have been 20 years ago

 

[Kelt]

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White Christmas this year?

Nope.

It'll be the same mild, dreary, cloudy with rain
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[Rroff]

Can't remember the last time I saw a frozen lake must have been 20 years ago

I think 2010 was the last time I saw any bodies of water iced up.

 

[Rroff]

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White Christmas this year?

Not uncommon story but the 2 most likely developments based on current modelling is either an early brief but intense winter shot probably November or a colder patch around February, with Christmas likely wet and cool/mild and meh weather.

 

[Nabinium]

Not uncommon story but the 2 most likely developments based on current modelling is either an early brief but intense winter shot probably November or a colder patch around February, with Christmas likely wet and cool/mild and meh weather.

Yeah, not surprising based on recent years.

 

[darael]

Not uncommon story but the 2 most likely developments based on current modelling is either an early brief but intense winter shot probably November or a colder patch around February, with Christmas likely wet and cool/mild and meh weather.

These days, if we're going to see snow it's usually at the end of January or in February.

 

[Jokester]

Current analogue comparisons with similar weather patterns for this time of year with previous years are showing a potential for a very cold winter in Scotland.

 

[Neil79]

Current analogue comparisons with similar weather patterns for this time of year with previous years are showing a potential for a very cold winter in Scotland.

Looking like an early Winter chill is being talked about!

We've had a lot of dry/high pressure related weather. Usually by now it's been storm after storm

 

[[FnG]magnolia]

9 degrees this morning (9th Oct) in Auckland and should hit 17 or so by this afternoon. It is also not winter here.

I've made a huge mistake.


fake e: missed a word out.

 

[iNPUt]

Warm please, my house ends up like an ice box.

 

[Rroff]

Looking like an early Winter chill is being talked about!

We've had a lot of dry/high pressure related weather. Usually by now it's been storm after storm

Massively generalising but depends on whether stuff comes along to mess with northern blocking and La Nina development - there are 2 scenarios in play depending how things pan out, current setup favours early and quite notable but short lived cold as features develop into winter, if things play out the second scenario favours the development of a cold spell around Feb but if it starts developing earlier messes with the potential for early cold. Neither scenario is likely to deliver anything but meh weather around Christmas time though.

 

[UTmaniac]

Mild again but because of clouds, effective sunset and twilight were ~30mins early, pretty dark by 1835ish.

 

[Nabinium]

Well this mild-ish weather means I can avoid using the heating for a little longer this autumn at least. A win in my books.

 

[CaptainRAVE]

Well this mild-ish weather means I can avoid using the heating for a little longer this autumn at least. A win in my books.

Good point. We had it on much earlier this time last year. It’s still very mild.

 

[darael]

Well this mild-ish weather means I can avoid using the heating for a little longer this autumn at least. A win in my books.

+1

I seem to recall putting the heating on in the middle of November last year, maybe just before.

 

[[FnG]magnolia]

e: redacted, not useful.

 

[Neil79]

Well this mild-ish weather means I can avoid using the heating for a little longer this autumn at least. A win in my books.

I've had one storage heater on low from the end of sept to now. The other night I was feeling the chill and even shivering with a jumper on!

Been in pain a lot this year so suffer the cold more. Also living out in a rural area that gets colder than towns

 

[Rroff]

I've still got my window open :s though I did put a fan heater on briefly the other night.

 

[Neil79]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1974568048528068664

Bodes well, need the deep cold if any chance of beasterlies!

 

[Neil79]

An early look at what may lie ahead for winter 2025-26

An early look at how winter 2025-26 may pan out for the UK using current weather model seasonal output and forecasts of oceanic and atmospheric drivers for the winter period. Full winter forecast will be issued later in November.

www.netweather.tv

Based on current forecasts for a central-tropical Pacific based La Nina cold anomalies, easterly QBO this winter and seasonal forecast it seems that, for this coming winter, we will see a slighter greater risk of northern blocking leading to cold spells - more likely in January and/or February - when there is an enhanced chance of a SSW occurring after New Year. However, overall at this early stage and given recent or current seasonal output, there is no signal for a colder-than-average winter (based on 1991-2020 average).