Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

EddScott said:
Bit vague to say 6 months to 2 years. I could say the markets are likely to see a correction in the next 2 years or so and get paid millions of dollars for that insight :)


Like saying "run for your life, the Sun is going to kill us all!"...................in about 50 million years.
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Well he does get paid many millions of dollars for such things so :P

Having a view on these things is valuable. There’s a separate thread for retirement investments, this is the trading thread. I will more than likely be moving house next year so even speculative risks like the current market outlook are relevant and affect what I’m doing with my free cash.

I’ve already made enough since the trump slump to make a material difference to my house budget. So I’m tentatively moving my away from the AI/tech stuff to more stable, income focused equities/etfs (and cash) to reduce the risk of getting my pants pulled down in a position where the correction did happen when I needed to liquidate my positions.
 
Doesnt take a genius to tell us very expenisve stocks are at greater risk of falls, and also lower average returns over the following years. Vanguard have been saying that, i'm sure they'll be right one day.

Shiller P/E for those that follow such things is pretty high, https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe

We keep hearing all the bubble stuff 'new normal' 'this is different' and so on. But still you cant call the top, those who tried timing the tops so far have been left out of huge rallies. Such that when it does eventually fall they'd have made more just riding the waves.
 
200sols said:
We keep hearing all the bubble stuff 'new normal' 'this is different' and so on. But still you cant call the top, those who tried timing the tops so far have been left out of huge rallies. Such that when it does eventually fall they'd have made more just riding the waves.
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Yeah and I still think the passive investing global index fund approach will continue to pump money into the same big US stocks, because its a self perpetuating effect.

There would have to be a deliberate switch to a different weighting, or away from passive index funds, by a huge number of people, to change this I think.
 
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We're not in a bubble. Jamie Dimon is just scaring people so they stay on the sidelines.

Largest capex boom since the 90's. Laying the groundwork for AI, just like internet cabling or electrification, the largest tech companies just know this is incredibly important. 7t on AI, 5t on data centres, 2t on updated electrification to feed them. And it's companies with massive cashflows like Meta, Google, Tesla that are doing it. It's not like they have nothing backing up their companies unlike 90% of the dot com companies that went bust.

Will we get a 20% pullback, sure...but it'll just grind higher. Years to go yet
 
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Question about the T212 stocks&shares ISA, As an example say I put 20k in (all my isa allowance) and then pulled it all out a week/month later, could I then transfer more funds in, or would I need to wait for the new financial year?
 
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radderfire said:
Does anyone hold Coinbase (COIN)?

I saw an interview with CEO Brian Armstrong recently and they have big plans.

The amount they charge to trade Bitcoin they must be minted! :cry:
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Yes. For a long time. In and out a bit too.

I decided to bail on most of crypto when they started with the tax crackdown. Can't be bothered to trace it all and have to report.

So I've been using coin as a proxy for crypto.

I usually buy in the 200s and sell in the 400s with a portion I hold long term.

Its one of my decently sized chunks.
 
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Not much on the radar today. Except alrt has risen back up. Didn't want to sell as its impossible to buy on t212
 
413x said:
Not much on the radar today. Except alrt has risen back up. Didn't want to sell as its impossible to buy on t212
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ride it! I feel good about that stock, a lot of promising news etc.. I feel like it could well be my best stock in the next 3-5 years.
 
Trusty said:
Shiller P/E is total bunk nowadays. How anyone can conclude that wages are whats driving the the P/E i don't know
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more people are getting invested int he stockmarket than ever so surely its expected that p/e prices will go insane because theres now more money driving the share prices higher.

it's surely a meaningless ratio by now
 
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PEG not PE for anything high growth


Will we get a 20% pullback, sure...but it'll just grind higher. Years to go yet
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20% would be an opportunity, a bullish consolidation more then a real negative. Tech is high volatility, the weakness at year start was good for anyone looking further out with confidence. Commodities are especially extreme, 10% in a day up or down would be fairly normal.

AstraZeneca moving 10% the other day needs more consideration, I presume it was to do with medicare but cant say I know much about that sector.

I worry about China considering the South China sea as now china and any land in it.

Nasher said:
Gold can drop as well :D
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The way to think of it is Gold price never changes, its inert. Just a block of metal, doesnt react not especially more useful then copper or silver or many other metals yet its got this value; its all about stability I think.

So gold price is inverse, its not altering, the number changing like a fraction is because the common denominator is Dollar. Dollar is getting weaker, substantially and on every time frame, yearly, decade and generationally. Sterling, Euro, Yen all are currencies I dont believe can swim against that tide change, probably many of the others.


 
arknor said:
more people are getting invested int he stockmarket than ever so surely its expected that p/e prices will go insane because theres now more money driving the share prices higher.

it's surely a meaningless ratio by now
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Kind of think the same. The level of cash in stocks has moved the standard for PEs.

I don't even think it matters how profitable a company is now. It's same as crypto. As said before. Putting money into meme stocks is not stupid. It's just being in early and getting out when you're ready.
 
413x said:
Kind of think the same. The level of cash in stocks has moved the standard for PEs.

I don't even think it matters how profitable a company is now. It's same as crypto. As said before. Putting money into meme stocks is not stupid. It's just being in early and getting out when you're ready.
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Of course it matters. Right now we're just in an exuberance phase. You think if company earnings fall that stocks won't follow? I think that's wrong at a fundamental level.
 
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