EV VED could be reformed without linking to distance travelled, but such a link would
make the tax fairer – with the harms above, as well as congestion impact, all correlating
with distance. A combined weight and distance link would also give the greatest
incentive to buy smaller, lighter vehicles to those who drive the most miles – giving
the biggest societal benefit. Distance could be logged via a mixture of MOTs, self-
reporting and ideally telematics (with the latter helping to exclude miles driven outside
the UK and perhaps facilitating local per-mile additions in future to tackle the worst
congestion). 93
To give some illustrative figures: Fuel Duty equates to around 6p + VAT per mile
for a typical car, so EV VED could be applied at (say) 6p per mile (and no VAT) for
a car weighing a typical 1,800kg. The charge for a light, 1,000kg EV could then be
proportionally lower at around 3p per mile; and a 2,800kg car would be charged around
9p per mile. Given that EVs can be powered for as little as 2p per mile, while a typical-
weight petrol car might cost 16p per mile, such a new VED system would be a material
change in the cost of EV driving, but also see it remain cheaper than the high carbon
alternative – with very low driving costs for light EVs especially.
..
Third, VED should also be raised for non-EVs sold in future too, helping achieve sales
target set out in the ZEV mandate, and better tackling harms. This could mean reform
of the flat £195 charge for non-EVs too (noting that this was not flat for cars registered
before 2017), and/or reform of the up-front charge that varies with emissions intensities
(though this was tweaked at Autumn Budget 2024). On balance, to parallel our EV
suggestion, both up-front and recurring VED rates for non-EVs sold in future could vary
with weight. 95 Weight variation is something called for by the London Assembly, 96 and
by other think tanks, 97 and for which there is a range of international experiences – with
weight-linked annual charges in New South Wales, the Netherlands and Estonia for
example.
Despite the policy giveaways and protections suggested above, we still estimate
that this package could raise £2 billion in 2029-30. Importantly, this figure would
grow significantly over time to over £10 billion by 2035-36 and more beyond that (as
shown in Figure 12)