Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

Buffet leaving and donating his wealth, which is shares. That seems to be excess liquidity, probably making shares cheaper. BRK is already under performing vs market but also in future the company itself might easily do a lot better then just sitting on cash, possibly even pay a dividend..

Just an idea for a safe DCA:

 
moon man said:
Biggest learning curve ever and phycological test , my dvlt , not sure if you saw was hit by wolfpack shorting group , hit my min profit stops , i mean it lost a third plus there was massive manipulation , anyway back in with caution , earnings soon so ,,,,,,,,,,,,,you know how it works
red wine investment last night 5 mins before close 3k quantum computing 2k bbai both ive had before , nice buffer already ,looking for reversals , too soon? bbai also earnings so i will see how the build up goes

edit dvlt lost two thirds at the worst around a dollar
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Bbai did fine compared to expectations
 
92 PE cheap, whys no one think NVDA PE is cheap. EGO is 15 and NEM is 14 apparently. I know PE is not exactly the best view but tech and gold roughly still appears cheap imo even if say price of their product fell 20% (they have the margin for it)

RR appears cheap , it has debt to consider so Im sure enterprise value or some measure should account for that etc. Currency is weak which makes debt easier, the biggest challenge would be the oppisite such as when FED had to face off inflation 'suddenly'


Burry argues the product depreciation is badly accounted for. Doesnt tech always replace itself constantly? Its not the housing bubble but worth looking at, might lead to multi month doubts such as we saw year start but lesser imo.
seekingalpha said:
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I remember 2005 some ITV reporter did a special on housing fraud not calling it a bubble but it was commonly fake etc. Point was nobody cared, why spoil the party and I watched that and I read an article in the Economist explaining the forthcoming crash via exters triangle.
Negatives weres known but it carried on, thats a proper bubble being insulated and with feedback effect. I could be failing again here to see it clearly, I go on whether the product is useful or maybe its got no further growth. The AI I use has plenty of faults, can it improve or is that part fake.
 
silversurfer said:
Burry argues the product depreciation is badly accounted for. Doesnt tech always replace itself constantly? Its not the housing bubble but worth looking at, might lead to multi month doubts such as we saw year start but lesser imo.
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Would need to see everything he's said about it to understand it properly but he mentions 2/3 years there. Frontier stuff is 2/3 years but it doesn't become trash after that, it's used for fine tuning and inference, shelf life of that stuff is 3 to 5 years after the frontier period.
 
Calpol said:
Interesting article on Seeking Alpha about hyperscaler capex requirements in the AI race.
Bond spreads increasing in AI bubble

Seems that the amount of Capex required is almost outstripping free cash flows and debt providers are slightly concerned about risk of AI bubble.
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100% its going to be a bubble. Contentious opinion....bubbles are good at the correct time. Laying track to win a race, money and credit needs to be sloshy rather than tight, especially as its an AI race against China. And the winner potentially dominates for the next 100 years.
 
silversurfer said:
92 PE cheap, whys no one think NVDA PE is cheap. EGO is 15 and NEM is 14 apparently. I know PE is not exactly the best view but tech and gold roughly still appears cheap imo even if say price of their product fell 20% (they have the margin for it)

RR appears cheap , it has debt to consider so Im sure enterprise value or some measure should account for that etc. Currency is weak which makes debt easier, the biggest challenge would be the oppisite such as when FED had to face off inflation 'suddenly'


Burry argues the product depreciation is badly accounted for. Doesnt tech always replace itself constantly? Its not the housing bubble but worth looking at, might lead to multi month doubts such as we saw year start but lesser imo.


I remember 2005 some ITV reporter did a special on housing fraud not calling it a bubble but it was commonly fake etc. Point was nobody cared, why spoil the party and I watched that and I read an article in the Economist explaining the forthcoming crash via exters triangle.
Negatives weres known but it carried on, thats a proper bubble being insulated and with feedback effect. I could be failing again here to see it clearly, I go on whether the product is useful or maybe its got no further growth. The AI I use has plenty of faults, can it improve or is that part fake.
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Burry is the rich version of @413x :p
 
Trusty said:
Would need to see everything he's said about it to understand it properly but he mentions 2/3 years there. Frontier stuff is 2/3 years but it doesn't become trash after that, it's used for fine tuning and inference, shelf life of that stuff is 3 to 5 years after the frontier period.
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The likes of AWS keep older hardware and sell access at a reduced cost. This is especially true for LLMs that were designed to operate on a particular GPU architecture and memory system, they will continue to work well.on hardware ghey were designed for , but might not scale as well on newer GPUs butbthe new GPUs will be matched with newer LLMs. When companies release a genAI they don't want to be forced to switch to a.new LLM because there is extension testing d validation required

Also, in general the lifecycle has slowed down due to complexity. So although Nvidia are putting more money than ever into GPUs, it is not mike the early 2000s getting a new architecture every 12 months
 
200sols said:
Burry is the rich version of @413x :p
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Indeed, i think he has claimed lots of crashes that didn't happen and even for the 2008 crash it is not like he was the only one, and he didn't predict the timing accurately.


Anyway, you have to assume a crash will happen and just accept you will be 40% down at some point and have the strength to wait it out
 
So who thinks Burry will win his "AI Bubble Bursting" bet, and who thinks he will lose?

I think he's onto something, identifying valuations and a potential lack of payback from investment, but I think there is a high chance he will lose. I don't actually know how long his bet is valid for, I haven't looked into it that much. However, "conventional wisdom" re valuations has long taken a back seat, and stock market valuations will just keep getting crazier as a result of Fed policy. I don't see the Mag 7 running out of money so that they can't continue making money for shareholders. Being able to generate cash in this climate is getting harder, but these companies are in the best positions to do it.

So I think Burry will lose this bet.
 
When u say a bubble, I do not mean every stock. I should be clear on that. There are profitable companies.

But there is a hell of a lot of non profitable, highly valued companies.

Look at the capex spend of these data farms. Can they ever obtain a profit? This hardware is going to need renewing again and again.

I can't see much profitability yet around the massive expenditures on AI hardware.

At some point efficiency will massively increase I'm sure. But there's going to be a lot of casualties.


On flip side.. Can the market even dip too much? There are so many retail investors now. And surely big Corp investors pay attention to this.

If the market dipped, say 10 percent, would the fall be stopped because so many people would see this as a buying opportunity? And this retail and corporate would end up "buying in"?




No doubt the right thing is to just keep drip feeding.
 
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