Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

mid_gen said:
He’s the only reason I’m on this thread, for the lols :)

Bit annoyed I didn’t bite on Intel when it was down 35ish. Ah well. Did get some AMD so that’ll do for now.
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Meta dropped 20 percent. That's enough of a crash for me to go back in. The big boys are most likely fine. It's all the one trick ponies that are most susceptible to markets expecting an ROI on all this capex spend
 
200sols said:
12% sounds huge tbh.

AI is going to completely change the social structure of our economies IMO. Who knows how it will play out, it probably wont be pretty.
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There will be very very few massive winners. And so so many losers.

Google etc may end up vacuuming up everything else. Not even needing to buy them out.

A stock I was invested in, soundhound AI, is very very susceptible to extinction. Software only. A verbal engine in cars etc. It's software only and can easily be made irrelevant and day with a major AI development.
Its billion dollar Mkt cap.

Then have the ever present job losses on the post. And we are only getting started.


Its unpredictable when and what life will look like after. But how it's good for anything but the few? Well, these mega corps wouldn't be spending trillions if it was for the good of everyone.


I feel like VUAG is probably a good investment as it has a heavy load placed on the probable winners. Unless... China.
 
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LostCorpse said:
do we still think thats a bubble thats going to burst?
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At some point AI bubble will burst. Success will probably blow the markets more.

I expect many successful companies to fall away with the big boys vacuuming up. Jobs, other companies etc etc. This is all bad imo.

Or it doesn't work and never get a return on ROI.


I think it will be successful and we will end up with extreme power in hands of very very few companies. Of course this could be amazing. Medical advances, no need to work etc etc. But I don't think that will happen. As people in power are greedy and selfish. And I don't see that changing.
But all bets are off for me here. If we do get AGI, it could be extinction. It sounds dramatic. But it's definitely a possibility.
 
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413x said:
Meta dropped 20 percent. That's enough of a crash for me to go back in. The big boys are most likely fine. It's all the one trick ponies that are most susceptible to markets expecting an ROI on all this capex spend
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Of all the big tech players, Meta is the last place I'd be putting my money.

Apple - Most valuable brand in the world, sell bucketloads of hardware and services.
Microsoft - Selling masses of data center capacity, great services revenue, strong AI partnerships
NVIDIA - Nothing to be said, money making machine
Google - Still the leader in advertising space and well positioned for AI offering
Amazon - Selling bucketloads of data centre capacity will continue making bank.
Tesla - Peaked already and musk is a tit.

Meta is vulnerable. Facebook is for boomers these days and they are dying off. Instagram is on the decline as they ruin it with more aggressive advertising. WhatsApp will die soon as they try to monetise it. Threads is DOA. Metaverse.....lol. They are way behind in mindshare in the AI industry and don't stand to profit from selling capacity or tech. They have data, but nothing that the competition don't also have.
 
mid_gen said:
Of all the big tech players, Meta is the last place I'd be putting my money.

Apple - Most valuable brand in the world, sell bucketloads of hardware and services.
Microsoft - Selling masses of data center capacity, great services revenue, strong AI partnerships
NVIDIA - Nothing to be said, money making machine
Google - Still the leader in advertising space and well positioned for AI offering
Amazon - Selling bucketloads of data centre capacity will continue making bank.
Tesla - Peaked already and musk is a tit.

Meta is vulnerable. Facebook is for boomers these days and they are dying off. Instagram is on the decline as they ruin it with more aggressive advertising. WhatsApp will die soon as they try to monetise it. Threads is DOA. Metaverse.....lol. They are way behind in mindshare in the AI industry and don't stand to profit from selling capacity or tech. They have data, but nothing that the competition don't also have.
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Its a 3x, so it won't be in for long. As 3xs get eroded over time.

I'd probably choose alphabet, Microsoft, amazon as places to put lots long term.

I'm unsure on nvidia as I'm not sure spending on hardware can continue to accelerate and return ROI.

But they obviously aren't going anywhere. You need hardware.
 
413x said:
At some point AI bubble will burst. Success will probably blow the markets more.

I expect many successful companies to fall away with the big boys vacuuming up. Jobs, other companies etc etc. This is all bad imo.

Or it doesn't work and never get a return on ROI.


I think it will be successful and we will end up with extreme power in hands of very very few companies. Of course this could be amazing. Medical advances, no need to work etc etc. But I don't think that will happen. As people in power are greedy and selfish. And I don't see that changing.
But all bets are off for me here. If we do get AGI, it could be extinction. It sounds dramatic. But it's definitely a possibility.
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i was more referring to China Bubble than AI Bubble
 
413x said:
Its a 3x, so it won't be in for long. As 3xs get eroded over time.

I'd probably choose alphabet, Microsoft, amazon as places to put lots long term.

I'm unsure on nvidia as I'm not sure spending on hardware can continue to accelerate and return ROI.

But they obviously aren't going anywhere. You need hardware.
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None of these will ***** the bubble. It's more the hyperscalers who are leveraged and are using GPU infrastructure as collateral on loans whilst writing off the hardware over an extended and unrealistic time period. A GPU barely stays competitive in a OCUK forumite gaming machine for 4 years never mind 7. It's always the leverage that pulls these things down because the capital expense is speculative until full adoption and monetisation.
 
been helping this girl at work get her work shares into an ISA for her to sell it and move it to a cash ISA, yeah I know... I've already said my piece to her about cash ISAs vs SS ISA.

she was like, next time I'm just going ot sell it as this is too much hard work.
So I worked out the capital gains tax she would have had to pay, it was over £600 pounds; so unless you get paid over £600 per hour it's worth it.
Plus you know how do it next time, so it will be much quicker... as next time you will be paying 22% tax and not 20% tax!
 
slinxy said:
The government is looking at changing the rules on S&S ISAs.
The main headline points;
- no cash like investments in a stocks and shares isa
- charges on interest from cash held within a stocks and shares isa

www.gov.uk

Tax-free savings newsletter 19 — November 2025

www.gov.uk www.gov.uk

they may stop people from transfering from a stocks and shares isa to a cash isa....

This is to stop people just treating a S&S ISA like if it was a cash ISA and getting around the 12k limit.
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A bit BS that they crossing a line and making some gains taxable in an ISA. To keep it simple, providers I think will just stop paying interest on uninvested cash. Will they remove things like CSH2 being investable in a S&S ISA I wonder though.
 
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@413x i saw these and felt relevant to your post further up, but also may explain some of the sell behaviour we are seeing at miment

Bank of England warns of AI bubble risk​

www.bbc.co.uk

Bank of England warns of AI bubble risk

The central bank says US stock price valuations are their most stretched since the dotcom bubble burst.
www.bbc.co.uk www.bbc.co.uk

​

UK pension funds dump US equities on fears of AI bubble​

www.ft.com

UK pension funds dump US equities on fears of AI bubble

Public and private-sector funds concerned over market’s growing concentration in a small number of tech stocks
www.ft.com www.ft.com
AI summary based on what’s publicly available, i dont have a subscription for full article

The FT piece discusses the UK’s economic outlook and fiscal challenges under Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s government. It highlights how sluggish growth, high borrowing costs, and persistent inflation are straining the country’s finances. The article notes that the government faces limited room for tax cuts or spending increases, despite political pressure ahead of the next general election. Analysts quoted in the piece warn that public services remain underfunded, while debt servicing costs are rising sharply due to higher interest rates.

Key Points​

  • Economic growth remains weak: The UK economy is stagnating, with productivity growth lagging behind other advanced economies.
  • Inflationary pressures: Although headline inflation has eased, core inflation and wage growth remain stubbornly high, complicating monetary policy.
  • Fiscal constraints: Debt servicing costs have surged, limiting fiscal flexibility. The government is under pressure to balance fiscal responsibility with political promises.
  • Political implications: With elections approaching, Sunak’s government is caught between calls for tax cuts and the need to maintain credibility with financial markets.
  • Public services: Analysts stress that austerity-like conditions persist, with health, education, and local government budgets stretched thin.

Broader Context​

The article situates the UK’s challenges within a global environment of higher interest rates and geopolitical uncertainty, noting that Britain’s fiscal position is more precarious than some peers. It suggests that structural reforms and long-term investment are needed to break out of the cycle of low growth and high debt.
 
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Does capital gain take custody fees into account ?

My partner's capital gain this tax year for some shares she sold in a general investment account is about £28 over the £3K allowance. This is her total capital gain for the year She doesn't normally do a tax return, so don't want to do so if it can be avoided. It was my mistake, I handled the sale and miscalculated the amount of profit.

I note that her platform has charged her £24 from her general investment account this tax year for a custody charge, and will charge another £24 before the end of tax year. Basically, it's charged if you haven't done a certain number of transactions in a period.

the HMRC document on the matter says :

You can deduct certain costs of buying or selling your shares from your gain. These include:
  • fees, for example stockbrokers’ fees
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www.gov.uk

Tax when you sell shares

Working out and paying Capital Gains Tax (CGT) if you sell shares, claiming tax relief
www.gov.uk www.gov.uk


This is a custody charge for holding the shares and not having enough trading activity, not a charge directly related to selling/buying. she still retains shares in the account, and so the custody charge relates to more than just the shares sold.

Can this £48 be considered as a reduction of the capital gained, hence putting her under the £3K allowance ?

I discussed this many months ago in this thread and decided at the time I would just force her to have a capital loss of £28 if necessary, but if the custody charge is a valid deductable, then it's not a problem.
 
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