DRAM Prices Surge 172% YoY with No Signs of Slowing Down

Cyber-Mav said:
I suspect cpu prices will drop since no one wants to build a new system with ram being so expensive so CPUs could end up sitting on the shelves
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Maybe not the likes of AM5, but I suspect AM4 CPUs to increase in price as those that hesitated to upgrade to AM5 previously will now just jump to the 5000 series and call it a day. I think AM5 will be in a weird position from here.
 
aaronyuri said:
Maybe not the likes of AM5, but I suspect AM4 CPUs to increase in price as those that hesitated to upgrade to AM5 previously will now just jump to the 5000 series and call it a day. I think AM5 will be in a weird position from here.
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Yep, 5700X3D and 5800X3D prices spiking again used. Still less than a decent 32GB kit of RAM though.
 
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There could be a window of opportunity when we get that very much needed correction which is looking more likely with each day that go`s bye
 
CB have put together some tables:
www.computerbase.de

Speicherpreise im Check: RAM-Preise nach 3 Monaten mehr als verdreifacht

ComputerBase blickt erneut auf die Preise von RAM, HDDs und SSDs. Beim RAM ging es steil nach oben, bei HDDs gemächlich.
www.computerbase.de www.computerbase.de
(seems Google Translate is down or now respects some flag on the page? Anyhow, even if you cannot read German the tables are clear enough.)
DRAM (DDR5 and DDR4):
Durchschnittliche Preissteigerung251,95 %
So only x2.5 but the DDR4 kit in there - at "only" x1.53 - might be distorting the average.
HDD:
Durchschnittliche Preissteigerung33,72 %
A third extra, not crazy (yet) but further bad news.
SSD
Durchschnittliche Preissteigerung41,59 %
Again not as bad as DRAM but from the talk of NAND getting scares, this might just be the beginning.

This all does mean that sales for other parts (CPUs, Motherboard, CPUs, PSUs, cases, etc.) will trend way down. Whether that will move prices downwards or not is harder to gauge. Some of the players can sell data centre stuff but far from all players have a presence in the server market and it is not something they can magic up overnight.
 
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AthlonXP1800 said:
wccftech.com

SK Hynix Warns DRAM Supply Growth Will Lag Demand Through 2028

An internal analysis by SK Hynix suggests that while the demand for the commodity DRAM will be there, the growth in its supply will remain constrained.
wccftech.com wccftech.com

Internal analysis from SK Hynix warned DRAM productions will not meet supply and demand through by end of 2028. :(
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For what it is worth, TPU now also ran with that story:
www.techpowerup.com

SK Hynix Forecasts Tight Memory Supply Lasting Through 2028

SK Hynix held an internal company meeting, where the company reportedly presented some tough pills to swallow for many gamers. The company now forecasts the tight memory supply to last through 2028 for the commodity DRAM, which includes DDR5/DDR4, GDDR6/GDDR7, and LPDDR5x/LPDDR6. All the...
www.techpowerup.com www.techpowerup.com
Mostly down to HBM taking far more wafers.

I would still like the AI hype to die by the emergence of "smart" memory. Well die for Nvidia, AMD, etc. anyhow.
Smart memory - neuron type compute straight in the memory cells - is far closer to biological neurons and would/should be far more energy efficient too. Would need far more complex interconnects than traditional DRAM though - which AFAIK more like row and column type thing. Neurons needs connections to other cells with basic weighing - but maybe no need for a central processor. GPUs still mostly more like multi-multi-core processors, aren't they?
 
Did anyone watch the Jayz video, with him claiming that the cost to make RAM hasn't changed, thus suppliers are just raking it in due to demand?

don't worry I'm not expecting anyone to watch the entire video ;)
I don't go much on Jay, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if we are being bent over for this, because they can.

9:35 if it doesn't skip to it:
 
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Deleted member 280263 said:
Did anyone watch the Jayz video, with him claiming that the cost to make RAM hasn't changed, thus suppliers are just raking it in due to demand?
I don't go much on Jay, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if we are being bent over for this, because they can.
9:35 if it doesn't skip to it - don't worry I'm not expecting anyone to watch the entire video ;)

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Jay isn't exactly wrong (amazingly, given his record) but it's not as simple as cost to manufacture vs sale price. In any business where a manufacturer is capacity constrained, as DRAM fabs are right now, all the products made in those fabs have to compete with each other for space on the line.

This is grossly simplified and I don't know the actual figures, but if Samsung can make 16GB of DDR5 for $10 and sell it for $100 right now, that sounds like a great business - 90% profit margin! But say a 64GB HBM chip takes 4x as much fab space as that DDR5 and costs $60 to make, but sells for $600, then there's no point in making DDR5. The same fab allocation makes $540 profit for HBM vs $360 for DDR5. So either the manufacturer gets out of DDR5 or raises the price so it's as profitable as HBM.

This is why AI companies gobbling up HBM and GDDR6/7 indirectly causes price rises for DDR5 even if they're not buying large quantities of it.
 
Deleted member 280263 said:
Did anyone watch the Jayz video, with him claiming that the cost to make RAM hasn't changed, thus suppliers are just raking it in due to demand?
I don't go much on Jay, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if we are being bent over for this, because they can.
9:35 if it doesn't skip to it - don't worry I'm not expecting anyone to watch the entire video ;)
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well yes, that's how economics works. If something is in short supply, prices increase regardless of how much it costs to produce.

Something could cost £1 to make but it everyone wants it, it'll cost many many times that, regardless.

What gets worse is when there's artificial scarcity to keep the price high regardless, diamonds are a good example of this.

Souce: I studied micro and macro economics in University.

I don't rate Jay either but he has his moments when he's correct.
 
DrBombcrater said:
Jay isn't exactly wrong (amazingly, given his record) but it's not as simple as cost to manufacture vs sale price. In any business where a manufacturer is capacity constrained, as DRAM fabs are right now, all the products made in those fabs have to compete with each other for space on the line.

This is grossly simplified and I don't know the actual figures, but if Samsung can make 16GB of DDR5 for $10 and sell it for $100 right now, that sounds like a great business - 90% profit margin! But say a 64GB HBM chip takes 4x as much fab space as that DDR5 and costs $60 to make, but sells for $600, then there's no point in making DDR5. The same fab allocation makes $540 profit for HBM vs $360 for DDR5. So either the manufacturer gets out of DDR5 or raises the price so it's as profitable as HBM.

This is why AI companies gobbling up HBM and GDDR6/7 indirectly causes price rises for DDR5 even if they're not buying large quantities of it.
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Haha yep, credit to him, he sometimes does make a fair bit of sense. Not often, but sometimes :P
Yeah, it just doesn't detract from the fact, that we've been scaremongered and clearly are being ripped off, despite it costing nothing more to produce. IF it did, then you could argue, but not at a near 300% increase, of which most ram is now :(
It's just pure greed and a dick move, all because they can :rolleyes:

JollyJamma said:
well yes, that's how economics works. If something is in short supply, prices increase regardless of how much it costs to produce.

Something could cost £1 to make but it everyone wants it, it'll cost many many times that, regardless.

What gets worse is when there's artificial scarcity to keep the price high regardless, diamonds are a good example of this.

Souce: I studied micro and macro economics in University.

I don't rate Jay either but he has his moments when he's correct.
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I know that :)

What I mean to say is, that the way it's been put across, was a 'poor us the supplier, look how much it now costs us to buy the RAM to sell to you, so we've had to put the prices up or we don't make any money!' sob story. When that was complete ********.

So you agree then, that suppliers are taking the **** majorly right now. Just because they can.

Yes, I said weeks ago, that I don't believe a word of this scaremongering tactic of low stock shortages, all conveniently on Black Friday - what a coincidence that was...

They'll just make out it's out of stock on the website, breathe for a bit then mark it back in stock, when the whole time they've had loads.

The irony is, the suppliers think that we will fall for it.

Yeah, TBF, sometimes I do enjoy his personality and the way that his videos are put together, and yeah, he has been correct a fair few times :)
 
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JollyJamma said:
oh right, yes.
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iu
 
Deleted member 280263 said:
I know that :)

What I mean to say is, that the way it's been put across, was a 'poor us the supplier, look how much it now costs us to buy the RAM to sell to you, so we've had to put the prices up or we don't make any money!' sob story. When that was complete ********.

So you agree then, that suppliers are taking the **** majorly right now. Just because they can.
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well, it depends, realistically. I suspect that it's a mixture of both situations with some kits being expensive to source for the retailers and some being the same price.

I would be surprised if sourcing the RAM wasn't costing more right now across the board given the lack of stock available. Suppliers will increase pricing if they can but it's all very complicated.

Jay might be half incorrect...again.

Edit: OMG £200 for 16gigs of RAM. W. T. F?
 
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Ram prices are insane and it is really hard to judge the length of time it is going to stay that way and whether the market is going up or going to come down. Super volatile and Micron pulling out of the market did not help at all. It is a supply and demand market and ultimately the crypto crisis on gpu's just for memory. High demand for a limited resource drives up prices.
 
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JollyJamma said:
well, it depends, realistically. I suspect that it's a mixture of both situations with some kits being expensive to source for the retailers and some being the same price.

I would be surprised if sourcing the RAM wasn't costing more right now across the board given the lack of stock available. Suppliers will increase pricing if they can but it's all very complicated.

Jay might be half incorrect...again.

Edit: OMG £200 for 16gigs of RAM. W. T. F?
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If you calculate what RAM cost before, and roughly what profit that a supplier made on each stick, I'd highly doubt regardless of IF it's costing the supplier more, that this 300% increase can be justified to the buyer.
It's just greed.
The shops are just praying on people and pushing panic buying scare tactics.

It definitely was not a coincidence that all this happened during the lead up to Black Friday.

The fact that people keep sharing all these links/articles to it, just makes it even easier to scare people and businesses profit.
For all we know, the writers of said articles, are probably getting a kick back from scaring people from the suppliers. Tin-foil hat I know, but in this situation, it wouldn't surprise me at all. Greed is greed, and people are gullible!

Aurhinius said:
Ram prices are insane and it is really hard to judge the length of time it is going to stay that way and whether the market is going up or going to come down. Super volatile and Micron pulling out of the market did not help at all. It is a supply and demand market and ultimately the crypto crisis on gpu's just for memory. High demand for a limited resource drives up prices.
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It's never going to go back down :cry:
Every shop did the same thing during COVID, and nothing went back down, not even years later.
You're dreaming if you think it'll go back to normal :(
 
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