It's gambling. Only do it if you can afford to lose 100% of your input and walk away with nothing.
Matched betting - who's done it and who's good at it? (No Referrals)
- Thread starter knowlton
- Start date
It's gambling. Only do it if you can afford to lose 100% of your input and walk away with nothing.
I used to use an automated program that layed down bets for me; I'd log on with bookmakers credentials and it would just run 24/7 laying bets down for me. Made thousands from it gaining a few pence per race, using around 15-20 different bookmakers I'd make roughly £10-£20 a day depending on what i set my stakes to.
I eventually got banned from 90% of the bookmakers - obviously got picked up for automation. Not illegal but also not encouraged by bookmakers so they stop allowing me to win.
What I generally found was my betfair account used to lose all its money and the other bookmakers id gain from. Ideally you want it the other way around so effectively you are giving bookmakers money and keeping them happy whilst taking from Betfair.
Is this a similar sort of process?
How much can you lay down per day and gain in profit without arousing suspicion of bookmakers?
I eventually got banned from 90% of the bookmakers - obviously got picked up for automation. Not illegal but also not encouraged by bookmakers so they stop allowing me to win.
What I generally found was my betfair account used to lose all its money and the other bookmakers id gain from. Ideally you want it the other way around so effectively you are giving bookmakers money and keeping them happy whilst taking from Betfair.
Is this a similar sort of process?
How much can you lay down per day and gain in profit without arousing suspicion of bookmakers?
- Joined
- 9 Apr 2012
- Posts
- 13,157
Worth repeating this of course. It’s gambling with an edge.
Just following up from this. 3 years and about 3 months later I've made nearly £140,000, whilst working full time.
£3500 per month tax free whilst in my underwear cruising the interwebz anyway.
Those who think it's a con or gambling are stupid.
Sure it's harder to make money now than before (reduced ACCAs and bet X get Y) but the best offer ever seen in MB is still here - 2up/10up or 14up with B365/Paddy.
What's the 10up 14up. Congrats on those figures very impressive, I wish I still wasn't gubbed on everything. Would return within a heartbeat. It's well worth doing.
Same thing as football 2up, except 10up is rugby and 14up is NFL.
In a rather broad sense yes. Essentially it sounds like you were just automating straight arbs between betfair and the respective bookmakers, it is possible they detected your use of a bot but it is also quite possible that they banned you because you're inevitably catching them out whenever they've posted bad prices - betfair is generally going to be more efficient when it comes to pricing for obvious reasons ergo anything you set up to compare bookies vs betfair is just going to catch out the bookies when they've been a bit slow, might be subtler sometimes but you'll also likely catch the blatant bad prices too and that would definitely draw attention to yourself.
Of course you don't really need to lay at betfair to take advantage of bad prices, just bet using the bad prices. (higher variance but more profitable).
What matched betting does is to use the fact that the free bet (or similar) offer gives you a positive expected value overall on what would otherwise be two or more -EV bets. This again means that because your edge comes from the bookies your laying at betfair is inherently -EV leading to you accumulating losses in your exchange account... So you could also decided not to lay on betfair at all when taking advantage of bookie offers and this should again be more profitable albeit with higher variance.
You're limited by the offers they provide you. Some people advocate "mug betting", that is deliberately chucking a few quid on a -EV bet on some football team in order to try and appear like a mug punter and not a bonus abuser to the bookies.
You need to set up your trust account fella
You need to set up your trust account fella
What's the trust account?
The PM system on the forum. Have a mooch around your account settings, should be there somewhere.
Soldato
Well did quite well on some 2up offers this evening.
backed Barcelona, PSG, Napoli, Tottenham and Borussia, £100 on each
First 3 came in with a 2 up bet settle. PSV then did me a favour and scored as did Liverpool. Ended up £75 quid up on the evening.
What I've learnt is that in order to make a decent return you really need teh following to happen:
1) Don't bet on a team that are major favourites. Napoli were 1.16 to win meaning that a) they were very likely to, b) less chance their opponents would make a come back and c) if they did the market would have very little liquidity in it to back your lay to lock in any profit.
2) Teams really need to pull one back asap or the odds aren't as good. For example I made £50 on PSG (Liverpool goal in 43rd), but only £12 on Barca (PSV goal in 82nd min) and made a qualifying loss of £3 on the Napoli game as I could never get the back bet down to make a profit.
So in conclusion - I reckon I will be a bit more selective.
Only pick up matches with a 1.5 to 2.5 odds range, put more money down and only when the qualifying loss is less than 4%. All whilst tyring not to get my account gubbed.
Any other tips?
backed Barcelona, PSG, Napoli, Tottenham and Borussia, £100 on each
First 3 came in with a 2 up bet settle. PSV then did me a favour and scored as did Liverpool. Ended up £75 quid up on the evening.
What I've learnt is that in order to make a decent return you really need teh following to happen:
1) Don't bet on a team that are major favourites. Napoli were 1.16 to win meaning that a) they were very likely to, b) less chance their opponents would make a come back and c) if they did the market would have very little liquidity in it to back your lay to lock in any profit.
2) Teams really need to pull one back asap or the odds aren't as good. For example I made £50 on PSG (Liverpool goal in 43rd), but only £12 on Barca (PSV goal in 82nd min) and made a qualifying loss of £3 on the Napoli game as I could never get the back bet down to make a profit.
So in conclusion - I reckon I will be a bit more selective.
Only pick up matches with a 1.5 to 2.5 odds range, put more money down and only when the qualifying loss is less than 4%. All whilst tyring not to get my account gubbed.
Any other tips?
Soldato
Also, I've got excel sheets to do all the calculations I need so I just need the odds matching.
Are there any free oddsmatching sites out there ?
Are there any free oddsmatching sites out there ?
Annoyingly I locked in on the PSG game last night about 1 minute before Liverpool got one back. I made £18 on it instead of £55! Second time that's happened to me this week as I did the same on the Burnley game too. Oh well, any profit is profit I guess.. Was a good night over all though.
Likewise, 1.7 is my absolute minimum (unless it's zero QL or arb). Otherwise the return just isn't worth it.
Likewise, 1.7 is my absolute minimum (unless it's zero QL or arb). Otherwise the return just isn't worth it.
Sods law isn't it! I did lock in 50% after 2-0 because I had a feeling Liverpool would get one back, allowing me to extract a bit more once odds increased at 2-1 again.