When are you going fully electric?

[Amp34]

that’s gonna be the same regardless of tech. More kWh = more mass and cost.

Sure, but as tech and prices improve the additional weight and cost required for additional kWh will go down.

Today it’s $100+ for a kWh and 350w/kg, but in a few years when it’s $50 and 700w/kg the cost and weight will be significantly reduced.

While you guys like to claim people won’t need bigger batteries, there is a fair chunk of the market that actually do. 200kWh+ and 300-400 miles of range with weight in the back is essentially a requirement (as shown above). Not currently feasible with today’s tech, but likely to be so with advances over the next few years.

Alternatively there’ll be a lot of ICE vehicles driving around in the future.

@Meatball, it sounds like the MG would be perfect for your commute tbh. Range loss in UK weather is minimal (it’s only when it gets below freezing that there’s really any noticeable loss) and you’ve got lots of spare range with 163 miles.

 

[jpaul]

Also you can't just keep adding more batteries to increase range as there are diminishing returns from the weight. Battery and motor tech needs to get better.

yes looks like m3 150kg batteries / 100miles and that would be 30kg petrol for ICE, motor is lighter I guess, though;
I thought Musk had commented that they were at the limit on battery energy density, this is what must make the hybrids a sweet spot .....
in 150-30=120k, say, can you get the range extender engine - 60kg plus 200miles of petrol. ?

edit: but in a few years when it’s $50 and 700w/kg is that thought to be feasible ?

I'm intrigued by the benefit of regen ... does an m3 report how much energy is recovered, ICE commuting economically I don't need brakes much - I don't live up a mountain pass.

 

[Journey]

I'm intrigued by the benefit of regen ...

Free energy, free extra range. If some company offered fuel that got you more miles to the litre at the same cost, would that make more sense?
Even if you are only getting 50w, then 30w, then 0.5kW regen it all adds up.

 

[chaparral]

Do electric cars not have something like powerful alternators built into the wheel hubs or drive shafts or somewhere that could charge the batteries as the car moves ?

Or would that not work ?

 

[Jonnycoupe]

The motor works both ways - it’s indeed the principle of regen and self charging hybrids, it won’t create energy like you describe though!

 

[jpaul]

Free energy, free extra range. If some company offered fuel that got you more miles to the litre at the same cost, would that make more sense?
Even if you are only getting 50w, then 30w, then 0.5kW regen it all adds up.

I infer you can't find out how much energy it provides though ... clearly it is not recovered in a lossless way, versus never having needed to brake in the first place,
so, if available, it would be an indication of your driving prowess. ... how much have I reduced it for my commute route ?
well - I suppose you know, for everyday commute, the net energy expenditure more accurately than an ICE (well - my petrol guage anyway) so that's giving an indication.

 

[Amp34]

@jpaul Yes, quite feasible. The yearly jump in existing battery chemistry and tech had gained quite a bit of weight saving over the last few years, but changes to different chemistry and design may well give big jumps in weight saving.

Cost is going down year by year, although currently it’s not as much as many hoped over the last few years. Economies of scale are helping though.

There are also things like solid state batteries and supercapaciters that may be available in future. It may be that we have to wait for that tech to come through before actually affordable pickups and longer range vehicles become available.

Until then there may be the occasional high end vehicles in that segment.

Edit: Currently you’re looking at around 600kg for a 100kWh battery pack, so over a tonne for a 200kWh pack, which is realistically what you’d need for a longer range, larger vehicle. If we can get that down to half (so 300kg per 100kWh) then you’re looking at a similar weight to current drivetrains in those vehicles. I think it’s definitely doable in the next few years.

 

[Nasher]

Do electric cars not have something like powerful alternators built into the wheel hubs or drive shafts or somewhere that could charge the batteries as the car moves ?

Or would that not work ?

No because that would be trying to use a perpetual motion machine to power the car. You would only end up with more energy loss from the alternators

The best you could do is what we have now which is recovering energy when braking. Which is normaly lost as heat.

 

[McPhee]

I’d love to go electric, but the more I read online the less I’m convinced I’ll get the range required. My commute to work is around 28 miles, of which 95% is the M25. In the cold on the motorway a lot of sites seem to suggest I’m looking at a real world range of <100 miles. If this is true, if I compare to my current car to a MG ZS EV from a cost point of view:

MG ZS EV = 44.5KwH battery x 14.9p (home electric rate) = £6.63 full charge for up to 163 range.

Honda Civic = £7.54 to cover my 54 mile round daily commute (42mpg average, £1.25 per litre)

Do any of manufacturers of EVs offer extended test drives? I can’t drop so much money on a electric car for it to not to at least cover my work commute without charge.

Looking at the driving history for my Nissan Leaf, I've averaged 3.7 miles per kWh over the two years I've owned it. If we assume the MG ZS has similar efficiency, the average mile would cost:

(14.9p per kWh ÷ 3.7 miles per kWh) + 10%* = 4.43p per mile.

Your Civic is costing 13.97p per mile.

Further, you can dramatically reduce the cost of charging the EV. Octopus Energy do a tariff for EVs with a 5p night rate and a competitive day rate (requires smart meter). That would drop the cost per mile down to 1.49p per mile.

In terms of range, my old Leaf could do 56 miles per day in winter. I can't see a ZS, with a battery that's around twice the size, having a problem.

 

[jpaul]

Your Civic is costing 13.97p per mile.

he needs to consider all in eg

 

[DeanT77]

I'd like to see a comparison done between buying a petrol/diesel car vs an electric one over a 10 year lifespan - I'm not convinced electric cars are all they are made out to be.

 

[Jonnycoupe]

Smooth, quiet, refined. Yep that’s what they are.

 

[Amp34]

There are lots of comparisons, but in reality you need to do a personal comparison because one size does not fit all.

If you’re a high mileage driver and usually drive around in a new high specced 3 Series then the Model 3 will probably be wildly economic. If you’re a low mileage driver that usually drives a Fiesta then an electric car is unlikely to be anywhere near cost effective.

Also, lots of people seem attached to the 10 year comparison, but in reality most people don’t own a car that long. Average length of ownership in the UK is four years... An easier five year comparison is likely to be far more realistic for most people. Unfortunately for a lot of current BEVs the 5 year comparison hits their economics hard.

 

[b0rn2sk8]

The upfront cost is normally the issue but they are edging closer to their ICE equivalents slowly.

The new Mini E has the same power as a Cooper S and comes in at roughly the same price. It’s still obviously more cash than the Standard Cooper which most people own.

 

[DeanT77]

Also, lots of people seem attached to the 10 year comparison, but in reality most people don’t own a car that long.

Fair point, my petrol car is 8 years old and still going strong, making as much power as it did 6 years ago and still serves me well, so I guess I'm in the minority

What kind of state will an EV be in that time, will it need £'x'k of new batteries? If not, would the range be so bad that it's painful to use? If so, would residuals hit the floor and then we see a load of these vehicles just being scrapped?

I'm open minded to them and even considered buying one with the aim to reduce costs but the sums don't add up for me yet.

 

[b0rn2sk8]

You’ll never see residuals of EVs hit rock bottom unless the battery pack is missing or has a catastrophic fault. Even if an module is bad it’s still worth a lot of money.

Even a 24kwh pack from an old leaf that has been abused for every day of its life and is down to 70% of its original capacity (very few will ever drop this low) will have more capacity than a Tesla Power Wall which cost £4K. There is a huge secondary market for the cells for thing like storage and classic car conversions.

The main issues with EVs will be is that you’ll never get ‘bangernomics’ e.g. £300-£2000 cars because they are worth far more in pieces and they are so easy to take apart.

For reference it would be able to run my house on battery alone for over 1.5 days on a 16kw pack. I don’t think I could get enough solar on the house though to cover winter.

 

[chaparral]

If so, would residuals hit the floor and then we see a load of these vehicles just being scrapped?

Does it cost the same price to scrap an electric car as it does for a petrol/diesel one ?
What happens with all the old electric car batteries ?

 

[Nasher]

You’ll never see residuals of EVs hit rock bottom unless the battery pack is missing or has a catastrophic fault. Even if an module is bad it’s still worth a lot of money.

Even a 24kwh pack from an old leaf that has been abused for every day of its life and is down to 70% of its original capacity (very few will ever drop this low) will have more capacity than a Tesla Power Wall which cost £4K. There is a huge secondary market for the cells for thing like storage and classic car conversions.

The main issues with EVs will be is that you’ll never get ‘bangernomics’ e.g. £300-£2000 cars because they are worth far more in pieces and they are so easy to take apart.

For reference it would be able to run my house on battery alone for over 1.5 days on a 16kw pack. I don’t think I could get enough solar on the house though to cover winter.

I can see EVs will go to the scrapper quite early tbh. We won't have classic EVs driving around for decades like we do with petrol cars. I guess people won't want to take the risk of buying out of warranty batteries. Or obsolete tech since it's still got along way to improve yet.

 

[b0rn2sk8]

Does it cost the same price to crap an electric car as it does for a petrol/diesel one ?
What happens with all the old electric car batteries ?

See my post directly above yours. They have a second life, the market is well established already.

You shouldn’t need to pay someone to scrap an electric car, the material in it will be worth more than the cost, just like a petrol or diesel car. If anything apart from the battery pack (which has a large value and will never go to the crusher) they should be easier because there are less contaminates to deal with first.


@Nasher, your post couldn’t be any more wrong as usual this this thread. Batteries don’t just brick themselves when the warranty runs out and the can be repaired/reconditioned in the very unlikely event a module does go bad.

There isn’t going to be any ‘step changes’ in technology, Li Ion has been around for decades already, if there was going to be a step change it would have happened already. The best you can hope for is incremental improvements. Old Leafs are still commanding huge prices on the used market and have lost next to no value over the last few years. The demand well out strips supply and will continue to do so for years.

Likewise no one looks at a Nissian Juke and think ‘oh yes, future classic right there’.

 

[Joe T]

I can see EVs will go to the scrapper quite early tbh. We won't have classic EVs driving around for decades like we do with petrol cars. I guess people won't want to take the risk of buying out of warranty batteries. Or obsolete tech since it's still got along way to improve yet.

Stop guessing and do some research. Please.

As per one of the posts above, there's a strong demand for 2nd use batteries already - whether in a classic car or in a domestic/commercial/industrial application.

The current classic car converters cant get enough powertrains at the moment. You should see what a used Tesla powertrain is worth!