When are you going fully electric?

[Domi]

It would be much harder to track old petrol cars and tax them per mile though. They aren't connected to the outside world like most of the EVs

I think you badly underestimate how powerful the UK ANPR system is.

Within 5 years we could almost eliminate speeding, car tax and insurance evasion simply by choosing to enforce existing laws using existing technology and indeed existing infrastructure.

Initially you would probably only bill for A roads and motorways but as time went on it would be easy enough to add all B roads to the network.

 

[Nasher]

I think you badly underestimate how powerful the UK ANPR system is.

Within 5 years we could almost eliminate speeding, car tax and insurance evasion simply by choosing to enforce existing laws using existing technology and indeed existing infrastructure.

Initially you would probably only bill for A roads and motorways but as time went on it would be easy enough to add all B roads to the network.

But it's relying on automated enforcement which is flawed. All I'd have to do is have my number plate "fall off" or just let it get dirty and I avoid paying.

 

[Jonnycoupe]

Same as a speed camera then?

 

[jpaul]

I think you badly underestimate how powerful the UK ANPR system is.

Indeed, was driving in Peterborough over xmas , and they have a number of urban 40mph average speed camera setups.

 

[Domi]

But it's relying on automated enforcement which is flawed. All I'd have to do is have my number plate "fall off" or just let it get dirty and I avoid paying.

It is the simplest of things to have a non readable plate equal an automatic stop by a police vehicle.

Your assumption that it is a completely automated thing is also flawed ANPR can be monitored in real time with a person deciding what to do in the event of a hit ( a hit being speeding, duplicate number plate, no number plate, obscured plate, no tax , no insurance or simply a Vehicle of interest.)

So incredibly simple to monitor a camera on a stretch of road with no turn offs for a while and simply place a police car / some sort of civil enforcement up the road a bit.

remember we are talking billions in revenue here so spending a little on enforcement is likely to happen.

 

[b0rn2sk8]

It's all just pie in the sky anyway, even if a modern car has a sim card its still not equipped for a pay by mile tax system. It would need a software re-write on top of all the back end systems, car manufactures are not exactly going to be lining up to make or comply with a UK only system. How do you deal with foreign and imported vehicles? You then have to consider the cost, adding a pay by mile system to millions of vehicles is going to cost billions of £ to implement and collect which directly cuts into any tax revenue.

The cost of collecting fuel duty is peanuts in comparison. I'd expect a range of new or tweaked taxes to run along side fuel duty to make up the lost income including more tolls, increased VED, increased VAT on electric, duty on rapid chargers, duty on public chargers and tweaks to other general taxation.

It is the simplest of things to have a non readable plate equal an automatic stop by a police vehicle.

Your assumption that it is a completely automated thing is also flawed ANPR can be monitored in real time with a person deciding what to do in the event of a hit ( a hit being speeding, duplicate number plate, no number plate, obscured plate, no tax , no insurance or simply a Vehicle of interest.)

So incredibly simple to monitor a camera on a stretch of road with no turn offs for a while and simply place a police car / some sort of civil enforcement up the road a bit.

remember we are talking billions in revenue here so spending a little on enforcement is likely to happen.

This is what I was alluding to in my post, yes we are talking £billions in tax but this sort of system will cost billions to implement and run on a day to day basis. Yes the police can enforce dodgy number plates but frankly they have better things to do. There are also hardly any of them and they cost an absolute fortune to train, pay and give the right equipment to. It all cuts into the revenue to actually get after all your costs.

 

[Nasher]

The tax is on fuel because it's also not easy to cheat/avoid. Anything external keeping track of where people are driving is. Like how people started using GPS jammers to disable trackers.

 

[McPhee]

more tolls

Unlikely. Adding toll booths to every junction on the M6, for example, would also have huge implementation costs. Toll roads are also widely considered to have a negative economic effect; people simply drive round them or drive elsewhere. And unlike concealing your number plate, doing so isn't illegal and can't be prevented.

increased VAT on electric

Que newspaper headlines about pensioners eating cold beans and freezing to death because they can't afford electricity any more.should be a fun sell, politically.

Think that's an over-reaction? If a quarter of the current fuel duty take was applied to electricity then that would represent a 6.8p additional levy on each kWh of electricity (~£7bn tax levied on ~9Mtoe of electricity) . That's roughly a 50% rate of tax (+VAT at 5%) on electricity. If 50% of the fuel duty take was applied, electricity prices would pretty much double.

 

[b0rn2sk8]

Unlikely. Adding toll booths to every junction on the M6, for example, would also have huge implementation costs. Toll roads are also widely considered to have a negative economic effect; people simply drive round them or drive elsewhere. And unlike concealing your number plate, doing so isn't illegal and can't be prevented.

You can't effectively avoid tolls if they are on trunk roads and would be no different to the way many other countries work. Try getting out of the East of England without hitting the A11, A14 or A12 at some point. Tolls may be a no go in the grand scheme of things but just expect a larger VED bill each year.

Que newspaper headlines about pensioners eating cold beans and freezing to death because they can't afford electricity any more.should be a fun sell, politically.

Think that's an over-reaction? If a quarter of the current fuel duty take was applied to electricity then that would represent a 6.8p additional levy on each kWh of electricity (~£7bn tax levied on ~9Mtoe of electricity) . That's roughly a 50% rate of tax (+VAT at 5%) on electricity. If 50% of the fuel duty take was applied, electricity prices would pretty much double.

While I commend you for doing the math, it's a 100% overreaction because I said:

I'd expect a range of new or tweaked taxes to run along side fuel duty to make up the lost income including more tolls, increased VED, increased VAT on electric, duty on rapid chargers, duty on public chargers and tweaks to other general taxation.

So I was't suggesting adding fuel duty to electricity and I was more thinking increasing it to like 5.5% - 7% nothing dramatic but but enough to raise a few £.

 

[Russinating]

The problem with anything like a per mile tax, or even fuel duty (be that oil or electric), is it doesn't do anything about the two main areas of difficulty; pollution and air quality in inner city areas and congestion. Somebody could travel 3 miles to work and back every day in a city, but that's far worse and more harmful than someone doing 25 in the country.

I think we're already on the right lines: grants for EVs, emissions-based tax and 'tolls' so-to-speak like London's ULEZ. They just need to go further, but it has to be a gradual process - you can't just overnight ban non-low emission vehicles, it has to be a gradual change in-line with uptake, infrastructure, physological adoption etc.

I wrote to Bristol's mayor because I was really peeved off that someone from TravelWest who was supposed to be promoting EVs said that the council were clamping down on people charging their vehicles on-street and were issuing fines (despite I would guess 95%+ of the homes within the planned low emission/diesel ban zone not having driveways) and to be fair he did respond pretty positively, namely:

Thank you for writing, and for your positive comments on our Clean Air Zone plans. We have a moral, ecological and legal duty to clean up Bristol’s air, and I am confident that these plans will help us reach legal compliance for air quality in the shortest possible time while protecting those on low incomes.

I am copying in my cabinet member for Transport and Energy, Cllr Kye Dudd who can respond in more detail to your suggestions about EV charging infrastructure. We want to encourage citizens and businesses to transition to low emissions vehicles wherever possible. Bristol City Council have no plans that I am aware of to clamp down on the installation of charging points in homes without driveways.

We recognise that expanding our charging infrastructure is a key step in making our city carbon neutral by 2030, and have identified this is an area for the whole city to collaborate on in our One City Plan.

As someone earlier said, nobody is going to know there's demand for charging points, or localised barriers to EV uptake, unless you tell them. Bristol seem to be doing an ok-job, they're building dedicated charging hubs and you can request/view planned locations for individual public chargers at http://bcc.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=c65b68b9282e43e994130b5f591c685e. I've already requested 3 on and adjacent to the road I live on which now show as under investigation.

 

[Jonnycoupe]

Company car tax is gonna generate quite a hole in treasury revenue aswell.

 

[Nasher]

You can't effectively avoid tolls if they are on trunk roads and would be no different to the way many other countries work. Try getting out of the East of England without hitting the A11, A14 or A12 at some point. Tolls may be a no go in the grand scheme of things but just expect a larger VED bill each year.

You can still wind through villages. The M6 toll has never made a profit and usage is dropping, because people avoid it. We need to convince traffic to use the motorways, not dodge them.

 

[Haggisman]

You can still wind through villages. The M6 toll has never made a profit and usage is dropping, because people avoid it. We need to convince traffic to use the motorways, not dodge them.

That's because there's are easy alternatives in the M6/A38 which run almost parallel to it.

If those were both also toll roads, then I bet there would be a difference. Of course there are still going to be those for whom saving a few £ is worth adding an hour+ to their journey...

Some quick googling and back of a napkin maths* suggests that ~6-7p/mile of fuel costs is tax (duty + VAT)

So if tolls were set at an equivalent amount(+ a bit extra to pay for infrastructure), say £8-10/ 100 miles doesn't seem unreasonable?

*Average mpg = ~53
https://www.racfoundation.org/motoring-faqs/environment#a23

~60% of the cost of fuel is tax, at ~£1.20/l that's ~72p/l or ~£3.26/gal
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/infl...reakdownofthecostofpetrolanddiesel/2016-01-22

 

[Journey]

Good to see that Tesla deliveries are doing well 112,000 cars in Q4. Not to shabby an end to the year/decade considering all things.

 

[b0rn2sk8]

Good to see that Tesla deliveries are doing well 112,000 cars in Q4. Not to shabby an end to the year/decade considering all things.

With China coming online next quarter, Model Y in Q3, Model S/X changes in Q4 and the European being built for 2022 I can't see it slowing down any time soon.

Their charging network expansion seems to be flying under the radar, 22 new chargers planned for the UK, hundreds in Europe and it looks like you'll soon be able to get as far as Moscow and Turkey.

 

[Journey]

With China coming online next quarter, Model Y in Q3, Model S/X changes in Q4 and the European being built for 2022 I can't see it slowing down any time soon.

Their charging network expansion seems to be flying under the radar, 22 new chargers planned for the UK, hundreds in Europe and it looks like you'll soon be able to get as far as Moscow and Turkey.

Indeed they really are setting the bar high as far as an end-to-end solution goes (we'll just ignore the servicing for now). I also love the fact you don't have to deal with completely inept dealerships and the traditional dealer style network, so many bad experiences trying to buy a new car it's like they aren't bothered anymore.

Looking forward to their battery development day or whatever they call it this year, should be interesting to see what they have coming to market that will put them another 5 years ahead.

 

[PCM2]

+1 to the above 3 posts. Or is that +3?

 

[Russinating]

Good to see that Tesla deliveries are doing well 112,000 cars in Q4. Not to shabby an end to the year/decade considering all things.

Whilst obviously a good sign, not unexpected. Judging from other Tesla forums I think there was some kind of federal tax break for EVs which expired at the end of December (and you had to have delivery of the car to benefit, not just an order). Tesla held a massive delivery event across the US at 8pm on the 31st December to try and fulfill as many orders as possible and I imagine they had extra staff working around the clock throughout November/December to get as many built as possible.

Will probably go back to 'normal' now as I can imagine them being happy to take a loss from extra staff/overtime hours just so there wasn't a massive backlash from missed/delayed orders.

 

[Journey]

Will probably go back to 'normal' now as I can imagine them being happy to take a loss from extra staff/overtime hours just so there wasn't a massive backlash from missed/delayed orders.

Different normal though, as they are starting to deliver into more markets this year, means more opportunity. I hardly see them doing worse after Q1 '20 is out of the way, I mean how many cars will the China based factory be putting out per quarter, even if it was only 1.5k per week you are looking at 19,500 cars, which means the others need to do less than they are now to hit the same numbers.

With Model Y coming up, I am sure there'll be another massive surge in U.S market place come the second half of 2020, and no real competition in the U.S market from any other manufacturer with a 'cheap' SUV BEV.

It certainly is going to be an interesting year, I suspect you'll see more press both negative and positive as the revolution commences and people cement their positions about the whole EV win/lose scenario.

 

[b0rn2sk8]

Don’t forget they also delivered practically every car at the end of Q3 as well so it’s not like they had built up a glut of stock.

The US tax credit has also been phasing out all year so you can’t attribute a great deal of demand to it either. If someone got a delivery 3 months prior the tax credit was double what it was on the 31st December. It was only around $1k for the last quarter.

Tesla increased their prices by $500 a few days ago, not something you tend to do if you are worried about demand.