Is Intel likely to release 10nm desktop CPUs in 2021?

[g67575]

I've found some info suggesting that Intel will release desktop and server 10nm++ CPUs in 2021, links here:

Desktop CPU:
https://en.wikichip.org/wiki/intel/microarchitectures/alder_lake

Server:
https://en.wikichip.org/wiki/intel/microarchitectures/sapphire_rapids
https://en.wikichip.org/wiki/File:intel_2019_investor_meeting_sapphire_roadmap.png

Link to estimate of 10nm++ availability in 2021:
https://www.patentlyapple.com/.a/6a0120a5580826970c0240a45c1b1e200c-pi

There's also some talk of a new CPU socket in the near future, with an upgrade to DDR5 RAM.

There were rumours that Intel wouldn't release 10nm desktop CPUs at all, but Intel denied this.
I think since there are apparently plans for 10nm server CPUs in 2021, this significantly increases the possiblity of desktop CPUs also.

 

[Destination]

Doesn't remotely matter, I think some are due this year, but only mobile versions.
Either way when desktop hits, it'll be entirely new process, new chipset, new motherboards, if they come as late as 2021 they might try DDR5 to give it something to make consumers smile.

btw why is the suggestion it'll be 10nm ++, when we haven't seen 10nm, or 10nm + as yet, they just adding ++ for a bit of fun?

 

[g67575]

Lol, that's partly true. 10nm existed for laptops with Cannonlake and now Icelake. I agree though, desktop is what matters for most of us.

I would imagine 10nm+ will be for laptops released this year, link here:

https://en.wikichip.org/wiki/intel/microarchitectures/tiger_lake

 

[Orange Nexus]

Doesn't remotely matter, I think some are due this year, but only mobile versions.
Either way when desktop hits, it'll be entirely new process, new chipset, new motherboards, if they come as late as 2021 they might try DDR5 to give it something to make consumers smile.

btw why is the suggestion it'll be 10nm ++, when we haven't seen 10nm, or 10nm + as yet, they just adding ++ for a bit of fun?

Wow. The 10XXX series are not even out yet and they will require new motherboard. In 2021 they will require new motherboards again.

 

[g67575]

"if they come as late as 2021 they might try DDR5 to give it something to make consumers smile.

I'm sure it will be at least 2021. They already have the 10th generation planned out for this year and it's 14nm chips + some 10nm laptops.

Also, no planned improvements to 10nm beyond 2021 according to the investor info, suggesting that they will either release desktop 10nm CPUs in 2021, or perhaps not at all.

 

[NinjaCool]

It's crazy that Intel's 10nm CPU originally had a release date of late 2015 and 7nm was supposed to come out in 2017

 

[EsaT]

Wouldn't hold my breath.
Only thing certain is that to maintain PR image Intel can never acknowledge it even if they have no clue when 10nm will be in working state for high end desktop.
Pretty sure Intel knew already years ago before paper release of 10nm that it's completely broken and long way from slightest real production.

And no solid information about its use on desktop when they've long had serious production capacity issues certainly hints to serious problems continuing.

For laptops and servers lower clock speeds are acceptable, especially if 10nm gives power efficiency advantage over 14nm++++++.
Both product segments could use it even if there's some performance regression.
(vulnerability patching is anyway constantly nibbling current performance)

But for desktop mediocre clock speeds aren't enough.
I mean if they can't make 10nm run faster than 4GHz they'll need 25% IPC bump to just match 14nm+++++++ Skylake rebrandings.
Continued tweaking of 14nm has actually constantly moved performance requirements higher for 10nm.

 

[Emlyn_Dewar]

I would have thought they'd aim to have something out for end of 2020.
Aren't the 10nm laptop chips they're releasing now technically 10nm+? Sure I read this on Anandtech.
That crappy i3 with iGPU disabled was the first version.

 

[humbug]

In 2021 AMD will be moving to 5nm Zen 4.

 

[hominid]

I would have thought they'd aim to have something out for end of 2020.

They have got to get something out the door in more than qualification numbers.

Aren't the 10nm laptop chips they're releasing now technically 10nm+? Sure I read this on Anandtech.

I read somewhere, can't find atm(but will still look) that they were doing hybred chip, with the CPU on 10nm(whatever variant) with a 7nm(TSMC) GPU connected by EMIB.

That crappy i3 with iGPU disabled was the first version.

Dual core with hyper-threading, and the GPU section was disabled. Also it was more power and slower iirc than the 14nm+++ part. Just to add, numbers were minimal, at best.

 

[FoxEye]

In 2021 AMD will be moving to 5nm Zen 4.

There's a phrase about counting chickens or something.

 

[Grim5]

It's crazy that Intel's 10nm CPU originally had a release date of late 2015 and 7nm was supposed to come out in 2017

If intel hit those targets AMD wouldn't exist as a company today

so be thankful 10nm is nowhere to be seen

 

[Panos]

There's a phrase about counting chickens or something.

But is true from AMD own words. Even Zen 5 was in advanced state of design since October 2019 for 2022 release.
Zen 4 is already well under way and expect to start hearing about ES chips around April-May time when TSMC completes the 5nm for mass production next month.
We know AM5 socket would bring PCIe 5 and DDR5 next year.

 

[Panos]

btw why is the suggestion it'll be 10nm ++, when we haven't seen 10nm, or 10nm + as yet, they just adding ++ for a bit of fun?

No is not fun unfortunately. Start of 2019, Intel trying to catch up on desktop did a lot of changes to the node to be classed as 10nm+. However those changes failed miserably to result on a desktop CPU that can do higher than 4Ghz. IPC is well bellow that of AMD by miles, so losing speed also couldn't make sense to sell those products on desktop. Hence we going for another round of Skylake CPUs at 14nm in couple of months with no changes what so ever. Just a pure money grab to keep the company going.

That while trying to make 10nm++ process work.

 

[Destination]

No is not fun unfortunately. Start of 2019, Intel trying to catch up on desktop did a lot of changes to the node to be classed as 10nm+. However those changes failed miserably to result on a desktop CPU that can do higher than 4Ghz. IPC is well bellow that of AMD by miles, so losing speed also couldn't make sense to sell those products on desktop. Hence we going for another round of Skylake CPUs at 14nm in couple of months with no changes what so ever. Just a pure money grab to keep the company going.

That while trying to make 10nm++ process work.

Indeed, but surely when they eventually make it work, it'll just be their 10nm as the previous ***** didn't work.
They can add ++ but they mean nothing when there is no actual product.

 

[Journey]

There's a phrase about counting chickens or something.

There is but it is irrelevant, since TSMC already have volume on 5nm, with full ramp coming Q2 for the new iPhone SOC. So by 2021 they'll be knocking them out with lower defect rates, and lower costs per chip produced.

So, you were saying?

 

[jigger]

I’m pretty sure 10nm is finished. At least in terms of mass production.

 

[g67575]

Do you guys think that 10nm desktop CPUs in 2021 makes sense, based on the schedule for 10nm++ in 2021? Or, could this just be Intel blowing smoke to their investors?

Another possibility is Xenon / server CPUs only, if production volumes are low, with 7nm desktop CPUs in 2022 or later. Which seems more likely?

 

[Destination]

I’m pretty sure 10nm is finished. At least in terms of mass production.

With Mobo ready, everything ready to go, just no processors to actually place within them, and absolutely no announcement.
What makes you think the mass production is finished?

 

[Panos]

Do you guys think that 10nm desktop CPUs in 2021 makes sense, based on the schedule for 10nm++ in 2021? Or, could this just be Intel blowing smoke to their investors?

Another possibility is Xenon / server CPUs only, if production volumes are low, with 7nm desktop CPUs in 2022 or later. Which seems more likely?

Intel is facing more complex issues. As the nodes shrink, need to reduce the size of the die that going to be manufactured.
If the rumoured 10nm Intel node is as small at the TSMC 7nm node, then the Intel monolithic dies going to suffer greatly of low yields and horrible performance.

AMD MCM solution was in the works 5 years ago, the moment Intel was planning to release 10nm CPUs and Intel stumbled.
Same thing we would see on the current GPUs. Many dismiss this argument, however those NVIDIA 750mm2 behemoths cannot shrink to 7nm EUV without having some serious re-design including chopping things off. On the other hand Navi is pretty tiny in comparison and any +50% GPU over 5700XT using RDNA1 (not even 2) is feasible to be manufactured (384mm2). Nowhere near the 550mm2 a direct shrinking of the Turing can get.

But all these are too technical for many to comprehent in here.