What's going to happen to the car market?
- Thread starter bazaarboy
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- car prices
To get a newer car would suggest you have one you are looking to sell (either private or P/X)... You do realise that this "crash" you are so keen to get may also affect your own car?
Just as with houses, it all depends on whether the crash impacts the value of what you are purchasing more than the value of what you are selling. When people replace their car with something newer it nearly always means they are 'trading up' to something more expensive which then in turn usually means it would drop in price by more than the car you are selling drops in price, if they were affected equally in percentage terms.
Say you want to replace your £5k car with a £20k car. Currently costs £15k to upgrade. Now consider prices drop 10%. This means only £13.5k to upgrade.
Clearly it is a bit more nuanced than that dependent on what you are buying/selling especially if it results in a situation where you simply can't find a (sensible) buyer for your car, but a crash is great for most people because it means either you spend less money or you get something better for the same money compared to before.
Soldato
Quoting myself.
Registration figures are down over 44% year-on-year for March, that's over 200,000 less vehicles. The expect the total volume of vehicles to fall to below 1.73 million cars, or 25% less than the previous year.
"At the same time, the numbers of petrol and diesel cars reaching the country's roads were down 49.9% and 61.9% respectively.
However, registrations of battery electric vehicles rose almost threefold to 11,694 units, accounting for 4.6% of the market, while plug-in hybrids grew by 38%. Hybrid electric vehicles fell 7.1%."
Link here.
Registration figures are down over 44% year-on-year for March, that's over 200,000 less vehicles. The expect the total volume of vehicles to fall to below 1.73 million cars, or 25% less than the previous year.
"At the same time, the numbers of petrol and diesel cars reaching the country's roads were down 49.9% and 61.9% respectively.
However, registrations of battery electric vehicles rose almost threefold to 11,694 units, accounting for 4.6% of the market, while plug-in hybrids grew by 38%. Hybrid electric vehicles fell 7.1%."
Link here.
And the above is only going to worse. After all, people aren't going to be able to buy a car from a closed dealership.
It's going to be a weird supply and demand situation. My guess/expectation is that there will be a big "glut" in cars.
It's going to be a weird supply and demand situation. My guess/expectation is that there will be a big "glut" in cars.
Soldato
You've got to wonder if there will be a large influx of repossessed vehicles, some of which might be almost new or a couple of months old making the price of brand new vehicles harder to justify.
The dealer network is going to be expecting massive financial relief from the manufacturers, and a relaxation of the agreements in place for agreed volumes for the rest of the year and beyond.
There will be a lot of PCPs ending and cars returning too, demand will drop and I'm sure there will be oversupply. Further up the chain I can't imagine the likes of McLaren are going to sell 1500 765LTs now, and that downward pressure goes through the whole market. The amount of people financing Huracans and such is about to drop considerably, and they will be in oversupply.
Most of the market will be affected, at best 10% but I think we'll see a big correction higher up - maybe as high as 50% for the 'modern classics' that have skyrocketed in the last 5-10 years.
Most of the market will be affected, at best 10% but I think we'll see a big correction higher up - maybe as high as 50% for the 'modern classics' that have skyrocketed in the last 5-10 years.
The problem will be that it may well be much harder to find that additional £13.5K than it was to get the £15K when things were better.
Underboss
hope so
im still working through the epidemic, saving, money is going up, im in a good living situation with money right now, so, fingers crossed !
https://karenable.com/supercar-market-update-q1-2020/
Makes a lot of good points, I do worry about Aston Martin - they don't have deep pockets like McLaren to weather this.
Makes a lot of good points, I do worry about Aston Martin - they don't have deep pockets like McLaren to weather this.
Soldato
I reckon a lot of businesses will go bust and high rollers will become desperate for cash and sell their flash cars at a good price. Good time to haggle when people are in financial difficulty!
Soldato
So guys,
What’s your view on the car market right now? Surely prices will start to drop soon? I’ve not seen much evidence of it so far and I’ve been looking for the past 3 months at changing mine.
My PCP is up in July so really need to do something as I can’t pay off the balloon payment. Refinancing is out of the question as the APR will be sky high compared to the 1.9% I pay on PCP. And I still need a car.
With so many people either losing their job or losing 20% of their wages, surely the British car market cannot expect to charge as a much as they do for most of their marques?
I read in “what car” online that they expect mega deals to be available in the 2nd half of this year, but what do you guys think?
What’s your view on the car market right now? Surely prices will start to drop soon? I’ve not seen much evidence of it so far and I’ve been looking for the past 3 months at changing mine.
My PCP is up in July so really need to do something as I can’t pay off the balloon payment. Refinancing is out of the question as the APR will be sky high compared to the 1.9% I pay on PCP. And I still need a car.
With so many people either losing their job or losing 20% of their wages, surely the British car market cannot expect to charge as a much as they do for most of their marques?
I read in “what car” online that they expect mega deals to be available in the 2nd half of this year, but what do you guys think?
I've not seen much motion so far but I think that it partly because a lot of the bigger dealers are shut.
I suspect in the longer run prices will fluctuate a bit as people feel the pinch more and/or coming out of lockdown want to treat themselves, etc.
I suspect in the longer run prices will fluctuate a bit as people feel the pinch more and/or coming out of lockdown want to treat themselves, etc.
Soldato
Flippin hope they drop to reasonable prices. I’m kind of stuck as I got a great deal on a new style 3008 SUV GT when they first came out in 2017. If I want another PCP paying the same then I’d end up with a much lesser spec’d car, which I certainly don’t want.
So, desperately hoping that prices drop considerably.
If the Bank of England have reduced the interest rates (for mortgages) i hope it will apply to finance deals too.
So, desperately hoping that prices drop considerably.
If the Bank of England have reduced the interest rates (for mortgages) i hope it will apply to finance deals too.
Soldato
True, but I really can’t imagine people rushing out to buy a car when there will probably be so much financial uncertainty in the country.
Folks might be paranoid about spending money in case it happens again.
Personally, I have to make a decision about my car in July one way or another, so it might benefit me, it might not. 
Folks might be paranoid about spending money in case it happens again.
Personally, I have to make a decision about my car in July one way or another, so it might benefit me, it might not.
Soldato
Fundamentally the market is driven by supply & demand. Demand has dried up with the current situation, but so has supply (most manufacturers stopped producing new cars for several weeks).
There will be an element of people desperate to sell which will mean they will lower their asking price below what may have previously been acceptable, and maybe manufacturers will be desperate to get the cashflow moving again so will be offering exceptional deals on new cars, which in turn will hit the used market to some extent.
Overall I don't see things changing significantly.
There will be an element of people desperate to sell which will mean they will lower their asking price below what may have previously been acceptable, and maybe manufacturers will be desperate to get the cashflow moving again so will be offering exceptional deals on new cars, which in turn will hit the used market to some extent.
Overall I don't see things changing significantly.