2008: Linux’s year on the desktop...?

GarethDW

GarethDW

GarethDW

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Just read this article over at ZD Net where the author thinks that this year (and moreso next year) will be the year that Microsoft's dominance of the desktop will start to really deteriorate.

A new computing platform
Thanks to Moore’s Law and evolving application needs, a new computing platform arrives every 10 years. Mainframes in the ’50s, minicomputers in the ’60s, PCs in the ’70s, microcontrollers in the ’80s, PDAs and cell phones in the ’90s and now sub-$400 - soon to be sub-$300 notebooks.

Small and light enough to be carried everywhere, these sub-notes provide Internet access, PDA functionality and basic mail and document creation functionality at a rock-bottom price. Asustek is expected to build 1,000,000 Eee sub-notes in Q1 ‘08 alone. Asustek’s competitors are just getting warmed up.

What can Microsoft do?
Microsoft has gotten fat on the $50 Windows tax it charges PC manufacturers. But on a razor-thin margin vendors can’t afford Windows.
So they’re going with Linux. If Asustek sells 5 million Eee’s, and their competitors sell another 5 million, several million consumers will be introduced to desktop Linux for the first time.

And millions of copies of Windows and Office won’t be sold.
Click to expand...
As much as I'd like to see it happen, I don't think most people are ready for Linux on their desktops (I do think that Linux, however, is ready for them). As such, although Asus may sell 5 million Eees, I think that sadly most of those people will get Linux replaced by an install of Windows.

However, if articles like this one start to appear in mainstream newspapers and magazines, maybe this will convince the average Joe that Linux is worthy of some investigation. Maybe this, in turn, will lead to Microsoft making those five dollar versions of Windows currently only destined for the far east much more widespread. Maybe they'd eventually make Windows free (as in beer) for the home user simply to stop the advance of Linux...?
 
Not gonna happen IMO. I've played with Ubuntu and I think it's very usable, but there are still far too many basic tasks for which you have to fall back to the command line.

Linux has got to the point where your granny can boot it up and write a letter to her grandchildren without too much effort, but she'll still probably need to spend ten minutes bashing away in a terminal window to get a usable driver to print it out!
 
Every year there's an article written about how it's the "year of the Linux desktop". It hasn't happened yet, and it's unlikely to happen any time soon.
 
As much as I would like to see some competition to Windows I just can't see it happening.

There is no support for games which rules out one set of users. Compiling your own drivers and kernel is beyond the scope of a lot of other potential users.

Also which "distro" are we talking about, Ubuntu, Fedora, Gentoo, Debian, Suse to name a few, head on over to distrowatch and the list of "distros" is displayed in a drop down list that you need to scroll !!

I know there are versions of XP and Vista but at least in terms of marketing it is Microsoft "Windows" X, Windows being synonymous with computers.
 
Linux is fine for the basic user but as soon as you get into any kind of niche or anything unusual it gets very complicated very quickly, e.g. To get the forwards and back buttons on my mouse I have to edit xorg.conf. When Linux has advanced to the point where an advanced user can completely set up and tweak a computer without touching the terminal and be confident enough that it won't break to use it in a production environment will be the day when it is ready for the desktop, in the meantime I see it becoming quite popular in embedded applications - PDAs, phones, cash machines etc.
 
Hamish said:
When Linux has advanced to the point where an advanced user can completely set up and tweak a computer without touching the terminal and be confident enough that it won't break to use it in a production environment will be the day when it is ready for the desktop, in the meantime I see it becoming quite popular in embedded applications - PDAs, phones, cash machines etc.
Click to expand...
<off topic> It's already used in production environments in places like Google, Mercedes-Benz, Boeing, Cisco, Schlumberger, Sony Electronics Inc., etc...

As for embedded devices I think ITRON is the leading OS in the world... I think it's used in approximately 3 billion microprocessors. </off topic>
 
Hamish said:
Linux is fine for the basic user but as soon as you get into any kind of niche or anything unusual it gets very complicated very quickly, e.g. To get the forwards and back buttons on my mouse I have to edit xorg.conf. When Linux has advanced to the point where an advanced user can completely set up and tweak a computer without touching the terminal and be confident enough that it won't break to use it in a production environment will be the day when it is ready for the desktop, in the meantime I see it becoming quite popular in embedded applications - PDAs, phones, cash machines etc.
Click to expand...
Actually, you'll find "Advanced users" prefer terminals to clicky-clicky-mousey-mousey noobishness, quite frankly. SSH remote terminals are also much quicker than RDP'ing all over the shop.
 
What it will need

Insert CD fill in a few questions, and it installs, ofr average users, not just advanced.
Driver support out of the box, no compiling your own as it doesn't recognise the kernel you are using.
Office Suite with full MS-Office / Exchange Mail Client compatibility. IMAP doesn't count for mail.
No having to drop out of X to install drivers like you do with Nvidia Drivers.
Corporate uptake on the desktop, and laptops
 
mdjmcnally said:
What it will need

Insert CD fill in a few questions, and it installs, ofr average users, not just advanced.
Driver support out of the box, no compiling your own as it doesn't recognise the kernel you are using.
Office Suite with full MS-Office / Exchange Mail Client compatibility. IMAP doesn't count for mail.
No having to drop out of X to install drivers like you do with Nvidia Drivers.
Corporate uptake on the desktop, and laptops
Click to expand...

1. Tried Ubuntu or other user friendly distro? I can tell you haven't.
2. Driver support is there, where the hardware vendors have either provided drivers, or have provided tech specs for others to make the drivers.
3. MS have not released details of their doc/excel/access encryption, ergo it's a bit difficult for anyone but MS to release software that is fully compatible with MS Office.
4. You do realise that drivers compile when you install them with windows?
5. So you never need to reboot your windows box when updating GFX drivers? Yeah right.
6. HP already provide Linux as their first choice for their outsourcing. IBM also provide it as an option, but the whole corporate vs domestic has little to do with this subject. If one does it, the other will too. In either order.
 
i own an eee pc with the xandros os on it I did consider putting xp onto it but now there is no chance I will put xp on it now the defaut linux os is perfect for this machine (web,mail, short documents) and this is want most people want a computer for. And NO cmd line in sight

so yes I think that the more people that are exposed to a linux is a good thing and will slowly change people acceptance to it. I read the other day somewhere that MS are more worried that Intel will come out with an OS tuned for there cpu's . which does sound feasable at least.

Intresting times ahead a feel. :)
 
Who cares?

GNU/Linux has neither shareholders to answer to, nor profit targets to meet. Those who know about its advantages as an OS are enjoying those advantages right now. Those who don't can be found in the subforum next door, bleating about the latest trojan infestation. :D

As long as Microsoft exists, Linux is unlikely to achieve desktop dominance. Why? One of the reasons is that not enough people know about it because there is little to no advertising.

Imagine walking into a "purple shirt" store and seeing something like the following:

New PC-------------------------> £599
now add an Operating System :
------------------------>Windows +£60 ---->Total--> £659
or
----------------------------->Linux +£0----->Total--> £599

A price sensitive customer might be tempted to choose Linux.
 
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Dj_Jestar said:
2. Driver support is there, where the hardware vendors have either provided drivers, or have provided tech specs for others to make the drivers.
3. MS have not released details of their doc/excel/access encryption, ergo it's a bit difficult for anyone but MS to release software that is fully compatible with MS Office.
4. You do realise that drivers compile when you install them with windows?
Click to expand...

2. Nevertheless, they often haven't, and thus driver support is often not there.
3. Whatever the reason, it's the effect that will turn people away from Linux.
4. Maybe, but Joe Bloggs just has to click 'Next' and doesn't need to care about what Windows is doing behind the scenes!
 
I think ubuntu is easier to setup than XP. Ubuntu - sound works out of the box via spdif. Network port works, so internet on without clicking a button.

Nvidia drivers - a massive box pops up asking u to install the restricted drivers, one click and full 3d accelleration.

Video codecs/flash - oh I want to watch one of my "home movie.avi" so ubuntu downloads the codecs you need, again one click of my mouse.

Office - open office is pre-installed, it opens MS office docs fine.

XP - you have to buy it, get all ** drivers from a cd. Then you get internet/3d acceleration/sound. More than one click involved there!!

Codecs, you have to find them on your own. I know people that could never manage it without me sending them the file over msn!

You then have to pay a lot of money for Office.
 
This year should see Linux on the corporate desktop take off pretty well I think. Or at least over the next 3 years, I look forward to working on such projects :)
 
Hamish said:
Linux is fine for the basic user but as soon as you get into any kind of niche or anything unusual it gets very complicated very quickly, e.g. To get the forwards and back buttons on my mouse I have to edit xorg.conf. When Linux has advanced to the point where an advanced user can completely set up and tweak a computer without touching the terminal and be confident enough that it won't break to use it in a production environment will be the day when it is ready for the desktop, in the meantime I see it becoming quite popular in embedded applications - PDAs, phones, cash machines etc.
Click to expand...

Why would an advanced user want to ever bother with a GUI. Slow and awkward.
 
Mattus said:
2. Nevertheless, they often haven't, and thus driver support is often not there.
3. Whatever the reason, it's the effect that will turn people away from Linux.
4. Maybe, but Joe Bloggs just has to click 'Next' and doesn't need to care about what Windows is doing behind the scenes!
Click to expand...
I'll give you 2 and 3, but 4 is an idiom. The only difference is one tells you what is going on, the other doesn't.
 
i would like to see ubuntu polished off to a usable version for any sort of person whether they be old or young, because, lets face it, when you come up to a bug/problem/niggle in ubuntu, it can be very difficult to get it sorted for a novice user! i like using it though, even if there are some things i cant do on it yet. i think they should bring out a couple of TV adds. i know dell are shipping their pc's with ubuntu if requested when CTO'ing on their website.
 
eXor said:
------------------------>Windows +£60 ---->Total--> £659
or
----------------------------->Linux +£0----->Total--> £599

A price sensitive customer might be tempted to choose Linux.
Click to expand...

Diagree, because people haven't heard of Linux it must be rubbish, so they'll pay for Windows.

At the moment Linux needs to be easier to use (installing drivers and software) hardware support isn't as good as Windows either.
 
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