Afghanistan - 20 years on

[GreatAuk]

I haven't really paid much attention to news recently, which is maybe why I was quite shocked when I saw a story about Afghanistan today and went on to read a bit more about what's going on. While of course I was aware that there had been near continuous fighting against insurgents since the 2001 invasion I didn't realise the current scale of the problem. Basically, the Taliban are making major gains, the US has nearly finished pulling out, and it really doesn't look like the current government is robust enough to put up much of a fight. It seems likely that Afghanistan has a volatile and violent future ahead, and the Taliban seem likely to end up controlling most of the country again.

1000+ Afghan soldiers flee across the border, with poor morale across the army: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-57720103

US leaves Bagram Airbase, apparently without the Afghan base commander knowing in advance: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-57682290

And a map, showing quite how far things have already gone:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1412207133899190273

I was still in primary school when the world trade centre attacks took place, and therefore 'the war on terror', and especially 'Afghanistan' has been a presence in my mind for pretty much the entire period I've been following the news. Maybe for that reason this actually hit me quite hard - the thought that after all that fighting and struggling, deaths of thousands of soldiers and civilians, a conflict which has been going on for decades, it looks like nothing has really changed, and nothing lasting accomplished.

I can't imagine what the average Afghan will be feeling at the moment.

Maybe this was inevitable - the US invasion was criticised at the time for not really have a clear and achievable plan for creating a sustainable non-extremist Afghan state, Afghanistan itself has a special history of being impossible to control. Top that off with foreign troops pulling out when 'the job' was clearly far from done (whatever 'the job' was, or whether it was achievable or not)... Still, doesn't make it any less sad, or worrying for the future of the region.

 

[GreatAuk]

Seems similar to Vietnam in a way. It’s not like a war between nations who put their troops against each other. It’s guerrilla warfare. Fighting in streets with civilians everywhere, booby traps, hiding within the landscape. It’s pretty much not winnable. Unless you go Rotterdam 1940 everywhere. Don’t think any politicians could get away with that, there’d be so many civilian casualties.

Yeah, definitely seen to be more than a few similarities to Vietnam... And quite, don't think any politician could get away with it, plus seems likely that in an environment like Afghanistan you'd just end up radicalising even more people who would want revenge for their dead family members etc, making the situation worse rather than better...

 

[GreatAuk]

Think it's all over now, apparently the US and I would lump the rest of the west have told the Taliban to leave them untouched and there will be no action against them in the march into kabul now the last city....

Indeed, don't see how the Afghan army can hope to turn things around without a major external intervention or some kind of miraculous diplomatic effort. The president talking about taking territory back sounds almost as deluded as the iraqi minister denying the Americans were anywhere near Baghdad when in fact they were just around the corner and shooting could be heard on camera.

Mazar-e-Sharif, last Northern city has been taken: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-58213848

It can't be long before Kabul falls, particularly with all the internal refugees that will be straining limited resources in the area, leading to more discontent. In fact at this rate it seems like the US might have to bring forward their 31st of August deadline for all troops leaving unless they want to be the last ones standing in the middle of Taliban controlled Kabul!

It seems that the country has fallen apart even quicker than most 'experts' believed possible - one wonders whether this is due to a genuine lack of understanding on their part, feeling pressured into optimism by employers, or just a case of wishful thinking and not wanting to believe it could happen.

Despite my misgivings about being there in the first place I think Rory Stewart (and others talking along similar lines) had been talking a lot of sense (as usual, but then but then I am a bit of a Rory Stewart fan so might be biased) in outlining what's gone wrong, and why the US & UK should be ashamed of what's currently happening (mainly that air support made a big difference to the Afghan's ability to fight the Taliban, while actually being relatively low risk for pilots).

 

[GreatAuk]

If those reports are true that's seriously worrying. Appears the evacuation effort was started way too late - surely no way all the planned evacuees can be transported now. Not to mention our soldiers - I hope there is a damn robust backup plan for getting them out if the airport is lost.

 

[GreatAuk]

Depends if the Taliban are going to go along with US pleas or not I guess. Seeing mixed reports but Kabul seems to be in chaos none the less and given the sheer amount of NATO nations heavy lift aircraft up tonight I'm guessing they are expecting it to fall in hours not days.

Fingers crossed then I guess... It would make sense for the Taliban to listen to the US and at least let them leave safely so as not to spark any last minute air strikes etc I guess, but in the fast moving situation on the ground with zealous field commanders moving their troops in.... Hope they can all get out of there ASAP.

 

[GreatAuk]

Seem to be quite a few flights with an 'N/A' destination near Afghanistan based on flight radar 24 atm, as well a few actually listing Kabul as the destination... Don't know if that's normal or not, but guessing they may be short notice flights to Kabul...

Wonder if there's very recently been a step change in how quickly they're trying to get people out. But with fighters around the city I wonder how much longer civilian aircraft will want to be flying in for...

 

[GreatAuk]

Slightly confused reports about Kabul with some saying they Taliban are entering from all sides, but the officials in Doha say they've been ordered not to take it by force, and that people who want to leave will be allowed to. However I guess with the lack of any fight from the Afghan Army there may well be no contradiction there!

Sounds like there are official reports of the government planning to hand over power to a 'transitional' body including Taliban leaders.

Meanwhile smoke rises from the US embassy incinerators, high level staff have now left the embassy by helicopter. The US full withdrawal is now planned for Tuesday rather than 31st August.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...-as-last-government-stronghold-in-north-falls

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-...afghan-capital-assist-evacuations-2021-08-14/

It seems the US is at least a little serious about holding on until Tuesday though, with 1000 extra troops now on their way on top of those already deployed to secure the evacuation effort.

 

[GreatAuk]

The silence from our foreign secretary and other government ministers has been rather noticeable recently (only recent news seemed to have been a COBRA meeting last week) but seems parliament may be recalled to discuss Afghanistan.

Not sure whether there's anything much left to be discussed at this point though tbh... A bit late to make much difference whatever they say I'd have thought.

 

[GreatAuk]

This is what it boils down to. The bulk of the population obviously saw this as inevitable so what's the point of getting yourself/family killed over it? Obviously this could still be a short sighted decision depending on whether the Taliban go full Taliban or not.

I think this must be a large part of the answer as to why it collapsed so quickly. I'm sure there are many reasons behind the poor morale (eg corruption, poor treatment and training, weak national identity, lack of faith in leaders etc), but maybe abandonment by allies is the easiest one to point to.

Hearing that the USA had done a deal with the Taliban and were planning to scarper and leave you to it, taking all the air support that you've been trained to rely on must have been a bit of a gut punch. Hardly a vote of confidence from your biggest ally when they do a deal with your enemy and abandon you is it.

 

[GreatAuk]

.

It is quite astounding how quickly things have changed in a couple of months. I don't think even the most pessimistic 'experts' were predicting anything like what has actually happened, at least in public. Who knows what advisers with all the Intel & reports were telling politicians behind closed doors...

I certainly wasn't expecting it to happen this quickly, but looking back with hindsight all the evidence was there already.

 

[GreatAuk]

I wonder how long that Sky news team are going to hang around, don't think the Taliban are too keen on journalists...

Was wondering that too...

Sky news just now reporting that the Afghan government is 'teetering on the brink of collapse'. I'm not really sure what's still teetering about it, I think it's probably been fair to say it's already collapsed since this morning!

 

[GreatAuk]

Anyone know where all the 5000 US & 600 UK troops intended to 'assist evacuation' and 'relocation' and 'provide logistical support' in Afghan actually are?

I assumed they were going to be guarding the embassies until they closed and then just keeping the airport safe to allow flights to continue. But it sounds like they never had any role on the civilian side of the airport (hence why it's rather out of control as per videos perhaps) and are either just holed up in a separate military area of the airport or guarding the embassies (although it sounds like essentially everyone has already left the US embassy now https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.th...-as-last-government-stronghold-in-north-falls) while they close up shop.

I guess they must mainly just be holed up in a separate area of the airport, which we've not seen much of so far. Or are they actuality at the airport perimeter or beyond?

 

[GreatAuk]

Try not in the country yet.
Where are they going to land?

That would explain it if they're not actually there yet, but the news coverage seemed to be making out they were already there.

 

[GreatAuk]

The UK troops are likely mainly at the Airport; probably also being used to help ferry UK nationals, etc from Central Kabul; there were pics from the MoD yesterday showing them on the ground.
I imagine the 6,000 US Troops are doing much the same; airport security and ferrying people from the Centre (not just the embassy); there's another 1,000 US Troops on their way likely from Kuwait.

Ah OK, can see how actually moving round Kabul will be taking up a lot of manpower. I wonder if that's got much more difficult towards the end of the day as people mention roadblocks and presence on the street in parts of Kabul....

Sounds like the airport is in a right state though, so wonder how long it will take to evacuate all the people they've collected. Lots of flights during the night perhaps?

 

[GreatAuk]

Spotted this on Twitter; props to the Ambassador if true:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1426961366385053701

I hope that is true - despite the absolute shambles at a strategic level I would like to belive the individuals representing the UK on the ground are doing what they can in horrendously difficult circumstances. Good on him.

 

[GreatAuk]

Tragic symmetry between this and those that lost their lives falling from the WTC 20 years ago and started this utter disaster. So many lives wasted.

I was thinking that... Ending how it started. Tragic.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1425915454804135938

No wonder it failed, it was never about nation building. Afghanistan was always a chess piece on a geopolitical board, from the mouth of one of the founders of this travesty.

In that case, although I'm very sorry for the people of Afghanistan, I am glad that both Trump and Biden had the stones to get us out of a forever war.

What an absolutely shocking thing to admit to. If that was really what they were thinking, then people like Mr Bolton should probably not have bothered lying to the people of the West and Afghanistan.

All those Afghans who died in the service of their new country over the years, took up new jobs, got an education, and generally took part in the new society and now face death for doing so could have just not bothered.

Would probably have been better if the US had literally invaded, then scarpered back to an air base nearby to launch drone strikes at anything that looked suspicious. Much less risk for everyone involved, particularly for the Afghans.

I know the 'geopolitical chess' aspect has always been part of it, but like other people I had let myself believe that there was a bit of genuine hope and belief in creating a new and better society in Afghanistan. Obviously that was a foolish belief.

 

[GreatAuk]

Happy to kill themselves by hanging on the side of an aeroplane, but not willing to stand and fight for their country.

How do you know all the people trying to get out were soldiers? Or should every civillian have bum rushed the local army base to steal a rifle in order to die fighting against an organised Taliban assault?

Even if they were soldiers I blame the commanders and structure of the army / government much more than the individuals.

I see where the 'should have died fighting' arguments are coming from, but they feel exceptionally cold and unreasonable to me.

 

[GreatAuk]

Don't think it's been posted yet, but this was a very interesting article, talking about how significant the deals local officials did and bribes they took were since in became clear the US were leaving them to the Taliban in Feb 2020.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/08/15/afghanistan-military-collapse-taliban/

Some just wanted the money,” an Afghan special forces officer said of those who first agreed to meet with the Taliban. But others saw the U.S. commitment to a full withdrawal as an “assurance” that the militants would return to power in Afghanistan and wanted to secure their place on the winning side, he said.

The Doha agreement, designed to bring an end to the war in Afghanistan, instead left many Afghan forces demoralized, bringing into stark relief the corrupt impulses of many Afghan officials and their tenuous loyalty to the country’s central government. Some police officers complained that they had not been paid in six months or more.

An Afghan special forces officer stationed in Kandahar who had been assigned to protect a critical border crossing recalled being ordered by a commander to surrender. “We want to fight! If we surrender, the Taliban will kill us,” the special forces officer said.

“Don’t fire a single shot,” the unit’s commander told them as the Taliban swarmed the area, the officer later recounted. The border police surrendered immediately, leaving the special forces unit on its own. A second officer confirmed his colleague’s recollection of the events.

Unwilling to surrender or fight outmatched, the members of the unit put down their weapons, changed into civilian clothing and fled their post.

“I feel ashamed of what I’ve done,” said the first officer. But, he said, if he hadn’t fled, “I would have been sold to the Taliban by my own government.”

It doesn't matter who arranged the withdrwal, when it was, or how it was done. As soon as external influence was gone they will return to their mean.

Maybe that is the case, maybe not... We will never know though, because Afghanistan was still under external influence even as the US and UK walked away. Only difference was that the Pakistani influence (along with whoever else was funding and supporting the Taliban) was now no longer being countered.

 

[GreatAuk]

I see we are sending more troops to help with the evacuation.

Wonder what would happen if the taliban start executing civilians while we still have troops on the ground. I doubt they will as I bet they can't believe their luck at the moment, they seem to have taken the city without resistance using a small group of fighters. But it would put the UK / US governments in a very tricky situation if atrocities are carried out while they have enough troops on the ground to stop it.

If the taliban allow flights to continue and don't attack US / UK forces then this could be the way for the least bloodshed (for us anyway) but its tragic for the poor sods left behind. What a shambles

I'm not sure we can say that they haven't already been executing civilians. Information leaving the country is quite limited, and there have been reports of Taliban going house to house looking for certain people in some areas, Taliban in some places demanding daughters be turned over to them to be their wives and the bbc had Interviewed an internal refugee a couple of days ago who said the Taliban had executed men and boys in her village.

It may look quiet on the streets of Kabul where the news reporters are, and the Taliban spokesmen may be talking about a peaceful transition etc, but I don't think that means that these things aren't going on behind the scenes or in more remote areas.

Even if there were large scale executions going on right outside the airport I don't think our armies would do anything - governments have made it quite clear that we're abandoning the country come what may.

Agree it makes sense for the Taliban to hold off attacking the airport and our forces. As long as they don't do something to provoke a response our government will leave them to it, but if they did attack I think its fair to say the recent halt to air strikes would quickly be reversed.

 

[GreatAuk]

My Summary of the speech:

• US was only in Afghan to prevent terrorism. However, as the terrorist threat has now broadened and is present across the middle east there's no reason to stay.
• US got part of what they wanted when they killed Bin Laden.
• Soldiers were cowards for not fighting.
• Not for US to intervene in 'civil war', Afghan govt needed to come together and fight its own war. He was Frank with Afghan president when they talked earlier in the year.
• US will continue diplomatic efforts to protect human rights.
• US continues to evacuate eligible people, will expand programs for refugees.
• Says they didn't start evacuation earlier partly so as not to trigger a crisis of confidence.
• Says more time in Afghanistan would not make a difference, Afghanistan known as 'graveyard of empires' for a reason.
• Wants to maintain focus on anti terror activities.

So aside from being so cold about the fate of those that believed in the Afghan project and will suffer for it, my criticisms are:

• Completely ignored the role of the US in designing and setting up the state which failed and was clearly not for for purpose without external support.
• Describes it as a civil war, ignoring nature as a proxy war with foreign involvement.
• Ignores role in removing groups which did resist Taliban in the past, meaning they control more of the country now than they used to.
• Says US forces were bearing the brunt of the fighting when this has not been true for years.
• Criticises cowardice of soldiers without acknowledging the corrupt leaders and impossible conditions they were placed under. I wonder how many American soldiers would fight on if ordered to surrender by their leaders, not paid, running out of food and ammo, and in a war that even their closest allies had abandoned after doing a deal with their enemies.
• Little responsiblity taken for the absolute state of the current withdrawal.