Yeah I have to second this. Sure their performance predictions are often out of whack, but they do seem to get the interesting details right.
I think your performance increase predictions are right if we're assuming the cores are running at the same clock speed - given that RV770 has 2.5 as many shaders and texturing units as RV670, but at more or less the same clock speed is only twice as fast, if RV870 has twice as many shaders as RV770, logically it should be about 160% as fast at the same clock speed. I think since the core speed should be a bit higher than RV770 we're looking at a 70-80% performance increase in most games.
Its not quite that simple realistically as theres all sorts of limitations that you can't account for. The 4870 might only have been X times faster than the previous cards because it was limited by its number or rops/tmu's rather than clock speed or shaders. They might pump a lot more rops in, but they become held back on this next card, but too low clock speeds. its a fine balancing act and one thats hard to get right.
But I was mostly posting to say, people can knock Charlie all they want, he does have an axe to grind, as should everyone really, in terms of Nvidia. So what, 98% of what he posts has been proven correct since he's posted it, most notably the fiasco in laptop parts and faulty materials used in Nvidia parts, he basically broke the story, found the evidence, proved how widely it spread and didn't get a single thing wrong.
As for Fud getting anything right, for as long as Fudzilla's been around they've been copying and pasting Charlies info right after Charlie posts his storys up so I wouldn't give Fud a single slice of credit, not to mention they put out a lot more "rumours" than the Inq did of which many more were wrong. Fud just goes around every site and posts every news story he see's as his own.
One other thing is, we really don't need Nvidia, at all, while Nvidia's plan is stupidly, to make there stuff as high priced as possible to prevent most people from upgrading, ATi's has significantly changed in the past 2 years to, sell as many cheap cards as possible, because theres tonnes more profit selling 20 million cheap cards, than 2 million expensive and hard to make cards.
If Nvidia died tomorrow, and ATi could price their cards anywhere there wanted, they'd take in LESS profits by selling their 5870 at £350, instead of £200-250, Nvidia have become irrelevant now that ATi have moved to the small core cheap and affordable segment.
You also have to realise that, unless they offer significant performance difference between generations, then again people would stop buying, they only make money if people keep buying new cards. if because of no competition their new card is uber cheap to make, but only 8% faster, no one would buy it. If they made a 300% faster card for £800, no one would be it. If they make a 60-100% faster card every 12-18 months, they'll sell tonnes, and tonnes and tonnes of them.