I think the minimum we can expect will be that the 6850 (if it's going to be called that) will at least be between the 470 and the 480.

This completely defies logic, I've lost count of the amount of times people have went on like this. RV670 to RV770 and RV770 to RV870, people have said "oh, it'll only be a marginal upgrade".
Why would they waste money on making a new core with performance you could get out of simply overclocking the older gen a bit?

They can increase the shader count a fair amount and rework the core logic for a higher clockspeed.
Single digit performance increases quoted by some people in this thread are just ridiculous. As has been said, Cypress GPUs aren't limited by the power of their shaders, they're limited by other parts of the core. A noticable performance increase could be had from reworking the rest of the core and not even increasing the shaders (which explains why they're using Cypress shaders and Southern Islands core logic).