Right, time to thrust this little problem back into the limelight...
After a few days of fiddling, this is what I have learned:
1) The clear the problem I need to power the machine of for at least fifteen seconds. I've not noticed any difference between leaving it off for thirty seconds and thirty minutes. This suggests heat is not the issue.
2) Once powered up again, the problem stays away for about two to three days (remember, the machine is always on running SETI and/or Einstein), then reappears. It does not need to be intensive 3D graphics: even Media player, or several 2D graphics windows open at once will do it. Then the display freezes (actually it seems to be freezing for about a minute, then releasing for about two seconds, then freezing again etc. It keeps that up for about five minutes, then BSODs with a NV4_DISP.DLL error).
2a) That time of two to three days is unrelated to what the computer is used for. It could be ten hours of Oblivion or two hours of surfing - the problem will not come back any sooner or any later.
3) NV4_DISP errors appear to be the software equivalent of an engine management light: "Hi. Something has gone wrong, but we won't tell you what or where!" Lots of things cause this error.
4) Once the error is there, reboots do not cure it even temporarily. However, if the problem is not there, reboots don't bring it on. Once there, only the switch off trick works - and it always works.
5) No combination of drivers, nTune, RivaTuner or lack of them makes any difference one way or the other. I've not tried the certified 162.18s though, only the beta. However, I've not tried to roll back Direct X to the previous version.
Along the route I have also discovered that neither nTune nor RivaTuner can control the fan. nTune doesn't even give you the opion. RivaTuner does, but then ignores any setting except 25% and 100%. I have managed to turn the duty cycle up though. Interestingly, there is no evidence that the fan every runs at any speed except 2400rpm - both in 2D, and running Oblivion in a window at 1024x768 (so I cans see the fan speed and GPU temp on the toolbar).
However, that said, running Oblivion doesn't cause the GPU temp to go above 52oC anyway - assuming RivaTuner is reporting the temp correctly. Mind you, nTune agrees with that temp. As I said, it doesn't look temp related.
I've also fiddled with the CPU overclock, but that looks totally stable. This fault is NOT related to ambient temperature, whereas if it was an overclocking issue you'd expect more problems at higher ambient temps. But just in case I turned the o/c down - it made no difference. Neither did turning the voltages either up or down.
The nearest way to describe what appears to be happening is: a buffer somewhere slowly fills. Once full, the system crashes. rebooting frees only a small part of that buffer, which soon fills up again. The rate at which the buffer refills is then dependant on the amount of graphics rendered - but ONLY once it has filled the first time. Once full, powering down long enough to discharge the capacitors also seems to clear the buffer. That's just an idea of the way the system behaves.
Now, time to try a suggested Windows Hotfix plus the new drivers...
M