Brexit thread - what happens next

sityeuropa · 30 Jun 2016 at 16:13

Glaucus said:
and people still don't have a clue.

could it be because a no ones pressed the button and secondly even if they do press the button everyone has come out and basically said that we will stay in single market.

if article 50 goes ahead and we don't stay in single market, expect it to properly implode.

You think absolutely none of that is priced in now? Article 50 is expected now.

Carney is speaking so giving it a boost.

Arazi · 30 Jun 2016 at 16:13

The Mad Rapper said:
He's too inexperienced. And he's boring me already about his hard childhood in a single parent family.

Yep, just lip service like the rest, but people believe their crap and then are surprised when they dont do what they promised.

The Mad Rapper · 30 Jun 2016 at 16:13

anticonscience said:
May has said there will be no second referendum if she wins.

There will be no second referendum. There was nothing wrong with the first one.

antijoke · 30 Jun 2016 at 16:14

ps3ud0 said:
I think you are correct - effectively we will have business as usual for the next two years as per any member state under the EU, but it seems the EU will only enter into formal trade talks once we have left the EU and not before. Until those are agreed the gap will have to be covered by WTO trading rules.

EU is going set an example of us - Id very much do the same thing in their position...

EDIT: The two years grace are for us to untangle from the EU system but do not predicate us having a suitable replacement; from what Ive read two years is a laughably short time to get any trade deals settled...

ps3ud0

Yep, that's what I get, we have two years to detangle ourselves and setup on our own, then when that's done we sit down at the table to negotiate.

Without doubt they will want to make an example out of us.

SciNeT · 30 Jun 2016 at 16:14

Skunkworks said:
It's almost as if the markets ebb & flow no matter what.

It's been funny seeing a load of utopian leftys suddenly becoming experts of economics and money markets.

Judgeneo · 30 Jun 2016 at 16:15

anticonscience said:
Are you sure?

I am reading things that contradict this.

Pretty darn sure.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/25/article-50-brexit-debate-britain-eu

Article 50 says: “Any member state may decide to withdraw from the union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.”

It specifies that a leaver should notify the European council of its intention, negotiate a deal on its withdrawal and establish legal grounds for a future relationship with the EU. On the European side, the agreement needs a qualified majority of member states and consent of the European parliament.

The only real quantifiable detail in the article is a provision that gives negotiators two years from the date of article 50 notification to conclude new arrangements. Failure to do so results in the exiting state falling out of the EU with no new provisions in place, unless every one of the remaining EU states agrees to extend the negotiations.

Pretty clear that article 50 is a statement of intent to leave, which will happen two years after invocation. That means no change whatsoever until negotiations end. Our MEPs will even still be able to vote.

Oh, and for those worried that Mr Junker is saying we should get on with it and invoke Article 50 already, he can't do a thing.

Kenneth Armstrong, professor of European Law at Cambridge University said: “There is no mechanism to compel a state to withdraw from the European Union. Article 50 is there to allow withdrawal, but no other party has the right to invoke article 50, no other state or institution. While delay is highly undesirable politically, legally there is nothing that can compel a state to withdraw.”

AdamScott85 · 30 Jun 2016 at 16:16

I am made up Cameron resigned, that guy was such an ass. Every other word out of his mouth was nonsense.. Oh wait that's all politicians lol. Doesn't make any difference who is prime minister they are all corrupt and only care about the rich.

Judgeneo · 30 Jun 2016 at 16:16

wildman said:
the 2 years is to negotiate the leaving terms not the deals that you want thereafter. i.e it takes 2 years to agree how to untangle yourself from the EU infrastructure so that you are then in a position to do what ever you want thereafter.

too many unicorn fantasists think that it's 2 years to give us everything we would want. Unfortunately it's not

I never said anything about the timescale being sufficient, just that things will continue with the EU as they do today, from the day article 50 is invoked, to when the 2 year period ends.

The Mad Rapper · 30 Jun 2016 at 16:17

Unless the introduce an amendment changing that.

squerble · 30 Jun 2016 at 16:17

ps3ud0 said:
I think you are correct - effectively we will have business as usual for the next two years as per any member state under the EU, but it seems the EU will only enter into formal trade talks once we have left the EU and not before. Until those are agreed the gap will have to be covered by WTO trading rules.

EU is going set an example of us - Id very much do the same thing in their position...

EDIT: The two years grace are for us to untangle from the EU system but do not predicate us having a suitable replacement; from what Ive read two years is a laughably short time to get any trade deals settled...

ps3ud0

This is how I read it too.

UK is going to be absolutely dry-bottom-****** if Article 50 is invoked. I have an "out" from the UK, but that's moving to the US. Not sure which is the lesser of two evils.

The Mad Rapper · 30 Jun 2016 at 16:17

AdamScott85 said:
I am made up Cameron resigned, that guy was such an ass. Every other word out of his mouth was nonsense.. Oh wait that's all politicians lol. Doesn't make any difference who is prime minister they are all corrupt and only care about the rich.

Are you poor? You are aren't you?

Six6siX · 30 Jun 2016 at 16:18

Just had this sent to me so I customised it for OcUK:

"A Boris"

Imagine you want to live in Dave's house. To get it, you walk up to the front door and take a massive poo in his letterbox. Dave moves out. Thing is, your poo smells so bad that you decide you don't want the place after all. So you leave the house and the rest of the street for that matter, a desolate rancid mess.

That's known as doing 'a Boris'.

ps3ud0 · 30 Jun 2016 at 16:18

anticonscience said:
Yep, that's what I get, we have two years to detangle ourselves and setup on our own, then when that's done we sit down at the table to negotiate.

I suspect Article 50 will be interpreted as letter of the law rather than the spirit. This does not mean we cant attempt bilateral trading deals with individual countries (I presume that even means EU member states - unless someone wants to correct me) but not with EU as a trading bloc.

Its hard not to speculate and where one person finds a chink of positivity another does not. Hyperbole, even from someone like me, feels like the order of the day...

ps3ud0 :cool:

Glaucus · 30 Jun 2016 at 16:18

sityeuropa said:
You think absolutely none of that is priced in now? Article 50 is expected now.

Carney is speaking so giving it a boost.

you think its priced into it that we leave and have no single market, lol.

not only is there now legal challenges to acting article 50, it seams non of the leave leaders want to go without the single market, this has eased the market fears for the time being,

Hagar · 30 Jun 2016 at 16:19

The Mad Rapper said:
Unless the introduce an amendment changing that.

Which would be a treaty change and we have a veto

Arazi · 30 Jun 2016 at 16:19

Skunkworks said:
No, this is a serious thread for serious people with serious misery, serious virtue signalling and serious hyperbole. This situation is going to get far more serious before it gets less serious. I don't think you understand just how serious this is!

AdamScott85 · 30 Jun 2016 at 16:19

The Mad Rapper said:
Are you poor? You are aren't you?

No mate, but it is a fact they are all corrupt and all out for the same reasons. Corrupt as they come, this is why I won't vote as it makes Zero difference.

Tunney · 30 Jun 2016 at 16:22

Civil servant suggests compromise that most could agree on: Article 50 not to be activated until Turkey given access to single market.

Let's do it!

Stretch · 30 Jun 2016 at 16:23

anticonscience said:
So is this legit?

https://twitter.com/x/status/748508166338535424

We have to actually leave first, then trade on WTO terms until we can sort out a deal with the EU?

Despite all the hot air from Leave during the campaign, we are in an extremely week bargaining position.

The EU has the ability to sink our economy, we only have the option to inconvenience their's. Yes we have a trade deficit with the EU, but it's 55% of our trade and only 13% of their's.

Yes it will hurt them, but so will offering the UK good terms. What ever happens, it's loose, loose, loose.

Even if the country wanted to invoke article 50 (which I no longer believe they do), we can't realistically afford to, if any benefits of doing so are so distant and uncertain.

Avenged7Fold · 30 Jun 2016 at 16:24

AdamScott85 said:
I am made up Cameron resigned, that guy was such an ass. Every other word out of his mouth was nonsense.. Oh wait that's all politicians lol. Doesn't make any difference who is prime minister they are all corrupt and only care about the rich.

Go, go my keyboard warrior/rebellious teenager friend. Stick it to the man, down with society!

AdamScott85 said:
No mate, but it is a fact they are all corrupt and all out for the same reasons. Corrupt as they come, this is why I won't vote as it makes Zero difference.

Clearly it does make a difference. Every politician was shocked with brexit, even the leave side was shocked.