Brexit thread - what happens next

[delta0]

Very interesting reading that guardian article. I knew we would get something better offered if we voted leave. Looks like this is just the start. The EU needs to reform as its top priority.

 

[Billies Bangers]

What happens next? Everyone with money in european markets gets f'd in the a

luckily, most of my shares are in the u.s.a and property

You need to be in gold.

 

[Stretch]

But of course without our veto and rebate.

Just imagine if we could keep our own currency, be protected from any Eurozone bailout activity, remain a sovereign nation and also benefit from full single market access and be able to influence EU legislation rather than just have to accept it.

Quite. It sounds like a deal too good to be true.

Well if the Guardian are to be believed there's an "emergency brake" concession being considered by the EU for the UK, which could last from 7 t0 10 years.

A lot will change in 10 years. There won't be the same immigration pressures, and UK will learn just how difficult immigration controls will be to implement.

I'm not really sure what the point of leaving would be under those rules.

 

[Billies Bangers]

But of course without our veto and rebate.

Just imagine if we could keep our own currency, be protected from any Eurozone bailout activity, remain a sovereign nation and also benefit from full single market access and be able to influence EU legislation rather than just have to accept it.

But wait a minute! isn't that a club we're already a member of? What's it called again, oh yes, Britain's membership of the European Union.

 

[Skunkworks]

You missed the words 'can watch us' out of the final part of your sentence between 'you' and 'fall'. We need the EU far more than they need us.

We can either have access to the single market and free movement, or we can not have access to the single market. If we're lucky we might manage to negotiate some kind of tariff-free deal but that will take time.

I'm pretty sure we'll end up back in the EEA/EFTA fairly soon regardless of what the immediate position post-Brexit is. The benefits of the single market are just too critical.

Based on the last time the 2nd biggest mug contributor left?

 

[w1lliam]

Based on the last time the 2nd biggest mug contributor left?

4th

 

[MANFACE]

It's entirely plausible that more than 5% of Leavers are having second thoughts and would be happy with a compromise such as EEA membership. Some reasons might be:

1) the lies that were told by the Leave campaign now coming home to roost.

No lies told by the remain campaign at all

2) the lack of plans for a successful Brexit and the collapse / cowardice / backstabbing of the Brexit campaign leaders.

Hmm no back stabbing in the Labour party at the moment

3) the likelihood that the stated objectives of Brexit can't be realistically achieved (especially immigration control) and some kind of fudged compromise will be the result.

Having own borders with checks isn't realistic ?

4) they didn't realise the economic impact / implications would be so severe (not just what's already happened, but what is now predicted to happen).

What, you mean all those countries that want trade deals with us, and the IMF lying about our forecast for the future?

5) they didn't realise that the EU membership actually does have some positive aspects too and that a lot of EU money gets spent on all manner of projects in the UK.

A lot of EU money that we pay and don't see?

6) they don't want to see the breakup of the UK, which now looks rather likely with Brexit.

They don't want to see the UK break away from the EU. SNP live in a fantasy world of politics.

7) they only voted Leave as a protest vote and didn't really expect to win and aren't happy about the upheaval, unrest and uncertainty that's been caused.

All 17 million of us?

Of course some Remainers might vote differently too on a re-run. But my *subjective* feeling from people I've spoken to since the vote is that there's more Leavers with remorse than Remainers.

Hmm, I wouldn't say speaking to a handful of people is representative of 17 million

 

[delta0]

4th

Depends if you include rebate or not. With rebate we go to 2nd.

 

[Faustus]

I really do think the word 'victory' will need to be redefined by the time the Brexit negotiations have been completed. I don't think however many leavers are going to end up seeing it as their vision of victory.

 

[Cern]

Depends if you include rebate or not. With rebate we go to 2nd.

Why would you include the rebate in the total? It's a rebate that is deducted at source, in other words it is never paid (as opposed to a rebate you do pay and then claim back later).

 

[Tefal]

Why would you include the rebate in the total? It's a rebate that is deducted at source, in other words it is never paid (as opposed to a rebate you do pay and then claim back later).

https://www.theguardian.com/news/da...-budget-spending-contributions-european-union

if the rebate is paid at source why

• -€3.6bn in rebates negotiated by Margaret Thatcher in 1984, called the 'UK correction' in the official data. This is paid for by other EU member states. Mostly France, which pays €965.9m towards our rebate

 

[delta0]

Why would you include the rebate in the total? It's a rebate that is deducted at source, in other words it is never paid (as opposed to a rebate you do pay and then claim back later).

It is allocated according to how the EU see fit. This ever reducing amount is one of the smallest rebates relative to input in the EU. Germany is the only country that has a worse deal.

 

[Tefal]

another intersting point especialy around all the "but we get so much from the eu un funds!!"

Normally, countries and independent agencies within each country bid to receive central EU funds. The UK government is aware that two-thirds of any EU funding will in effect be deducted from the rebate and come out of UK government funds. Thus the UK has only a one-third incentive to apply for EU funds. Other countries, whose contributions into the budget are not affected by funds they receive back, have no incentive to moderate their requests for funds.

(from wiki https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UK_rebate)

so 2 thirds of all the funds we get from the eu for things are actually coming out of our "rebate".


which greatly diminishes the clout of all that funding we're supposedly losing and also the value of our rebate.

 

[Cern]

It is allocated according to how the EU see fit. This ever reducing amount is one of the smallest rebates relative to input in the EU. Germany is the only country that has a worse deal.

You are confusing the rebate with the money that is paid back to the UK in the form of development grants, subsidies to farmers, regional development fund payments and so on (which you are correct in saying is allocated as the EU sees fit).

The rebate is a separate deal and deducted from our total payments, the amount varies based on economic performance and and is calculated based on the previous year's figures.

Quoting from Wikipedia: There is no transfer of money from the European Commission to the UK Treasury involved; the effect of the rebate is to reduce the size of the UK's payments.

 

[Stretch]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/24/tory-mps-react-with-fury-as-eu-leaders-consider-uk-emergency-bra/

John Redwood, the former Cabinet minister, said the UK did not vote for a "slightly beefed-up version" of David Cameron’s attempted renegotiation with the EU.

Steve Baker, the MP for Wycombe, said: “If we end up with the Government doing things that don’t end the supremacy of EU law, don’t leave us able to control our own migration policy and leave us in the EEA, then there will be a great deal of dissatisfaction.”

Actually, the question was

Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union

The definition of not being a "member" is completely ambiguous.

 

[FoxEye]

another intersting point especialy around all the "but we get so much from the eu un funds!!"



(from wiki https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UK_rebate)

so 2 thirds of all the funds we get from the eu for things are actually coming out of our "rebate".


which greatly diminishes the clout of all that funding we're supposedly losing and also the value of our rebate.

Hmm, you know the more stuff like this I hear the more I'm glad I didn't vote. Because I was going to vote "remain", but if the referendum was tomorrow, and I had to vote, I'm not so sure...

 

[Cern]

Hmm, you know the more stuff like this I hear the more I'm glad I didn't vote. Because I was going to vote "remain", but if the referendum was tomorrow, and I had to vote, I'm not so sure...

Well the rebate is a tangled mess, but the end result is that it keeps the UK's net contributions a lot lower than it would be without it and is protected by veto. Without the rebate the UK would be the 2nd largest net contributor, overtaking France.

Another way of judging contributions to the EU is by % of gross national income / product, or by head of population. On these indexes, the UK is much further down the list.

 

[muon]

https://www.theguardian.com/news/da...-budget-spending-contributions-european-union

if the rebate is paid at source why

But that's just an accounting exercise.

The budget still has to add up, and so someone else must pick up the shortfall.

another intersting point especialy around all the "but we get so much from the eu un funds!!"



(from wiki https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UK_rebate)

so 2 thirds of all the funds we get from the eu for things are actually coming out of our "rebate".


which greatly diminishes the clout of all that funding we're supposedly losing and also the value of our rebate.

Which is fine to point out. But what is that sum even at a third?

 

[Sega Mega Dave]

The EU is a cancer that needs removing. It's a dictatorship where those in charge were never voted in.

If people think countries are going to be stubborn towards us when creating trade deals then they really have fell for the fear mongering. Business is business.

Remainers should be ashamed. They make this country weak.

Also people asking for a second referendum make me laugh. What do we do keep voting until you get the outcome you want. We voted, majority had the sense to vote correctly and in the long term if we don't half arise it we will benefit. The EU will collapse within the next couple of decades and it will be glorious.

 

[robfosters]

If people think countries are going to be stubborn towards us when creating trade deals then they really have fell for the fear mongering. Business is business.

BBC already reporting the chancellor has started talks on a multi billion pound trade deal with China. We wouldn't be able to do that if we were staying in the EU.

Once we leave and start signing huge trade deals with other countries around the globe, the Germans and the rest will soon have a change of heart regarding trade deals with us. In time I think Brexit will be proved as the right decision. Particularly when it starts collapsing and the big contributors like us have to plunge billions more of their taxpayers money into it.