Did anyone here predict the 2008 crash?

I'm not sure how you could predict ice crystals forming in the fuel oil heat exchanger under that certain set of circumstances no. It's an inevitability that it'll happen again, what goes up must come down.
 
yes, yes and no, not for at least a decade, we will see a slump from Brexit but that will pass swiftly.

now is the time to buy a house, and has been for a few years now.
 
A handful of people do nothing but predict impending economic crashes all the time. As the saying goes; even a broken clock is right twice a day.
 
Gigabit said:
I'm curious if anyone here predicted the crash and profited from it?

My other question is, to these people: will it happen again?
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I think anyone claiming to have done so on here likely has a wide interpretation of 'predict'.

I don't doubt that some were say short banks, house builders etc.. at the time or perhaps had sold their own home and were renting in anticipation of a fall

I think that you'll find that since the late 90s on quite a few internet forums, pretty much every year there will have been people claiming house prices are 'too high' and 'must come down'... inevitably some of those people will have then decided they were 'right' immediately after 07/08, a few may have happened to profit too - though I'm not sure that is really a good 'prediction'

If someone had genuinely outlined some issues with CDOs or mortgage backed securities pre 07 and could point to the post claiming that then that would be impressive - but in reality very few saw that happening, the ones that did are generally incredibly wealth now...
 
With a 12-month margin of error and severe underestimation of the effects in some cases, sure. They even made a movie about it. Can something like this be done perfectly on cue all the time and always averted? No. Should we abandon rational economics based on empirical evidence in favour of gut-felt voodoo science and deregulated wheelin'n'deelin'? Likewise no.
 
The economy will be fine for a while.

Our economic system relies on growth, and it was the lack of growth in the west that was partially responsible for the crash. However, over the last few years the corporations forced the EU and Britain to open the floodgates to immigrants, so we can attain more growth and stabilise the economy.

I predict that in a decade or so, the floodgates will be reopened, no doubt using some unjust war as an excuse.
 
Gigabit said:
Mike Burry predicted the year, didn't he? What would be interesting would be how many times he had predicted it before.
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Considering he risked the entire fund on his prediction and ****ed off the investors rather a lot in the process I'd say he didn't have this sort of prediction previously else we'd never have heard of him...
 
Gigabit said:
So surely that makes him more credible than others?
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In terms of claiming to have predicted it - yes he's got a very credible claim... a handful of others have too - basically they're all incredibly wealthy as a result

other ordinary people claiming to have predicted it though likely have a rather dubious claim....
 
Gigabit said:
It would be interesting to see if he has said anything about another crash. A quick Google doesn't seem to have brought much up.
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Not particularly, unless he's also presenting some decent evidence for it. Just because he noticed something when, being an autistic person, he was actually reading the MBS prospectuses and looking at the individual mortgages in detail, doesn't mean he's suddenly the fountain of all knowledge and able to predict other big events going forwards. His prediction was partly a result of stumbling upon this information.

People are too quick to elevate some 'experts', I don't doubt that Mike Burry is going to give you some great fundamental analysis of various stocks but expecting him to predict another big macro event is rather dubious.
 
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