Elusive fusion reactors to be commercialised by 2025-2030... Or so they say

The coal related illness/death is surely very lowballed......

my wifes uncle was a coal minor back in the day, his lungs are completely shot now and i think few would argue that his job was likely a large reason for it................ however officially it wont be recorded as that because he was also a smoker and that likely has also played its part.

the issue is in the 1980s practically everyone was a smoker................. so (according to him at least and he should know given he has gone through this) his health issues will never be linked to coal mining...... and individually i get it but it seems odd how many of his colleagues have/had lung related issues (but again, they were all smokers)

I agree with that and I think there's more on top of that. There's also the radioactivity issue. Mining and burning coal has released more radioactive waste into the environment than nuclear power has. Far more. Plus the direct deaths from coal mining accidents, collapsing waste heaps (Aberfan being the most infamous example in this country). Plus the water pollution. Then there's the places like Centralia.

As for nuclear..............I am in the camp of we need some nuclear if we want to go carbon neutral at least for now.............. however it takes some serious mind games imo to try to argue against the fact that it IS an incredibly dangerous technology (ok the odds of cataclysm are low.......... but the potential effects if we have one are huge).

It's far less dangerous than burning stuff. Especially burning coal. Even ignoring the environmental damage and just counting human deaths that are a direct result of electricity generation (mining accidents, other accidents, diseases caused by the pollution). A modern fission power station is even less dangerous than what we've had so far. The risks shouldn't be ignored, but it's the least bad option we have. I'm also in the camp of we need some nuclear fission for now, obviously. Not long term. Just until a better option exists.

I mean come on.... who really believes the official figures from Russia? Christ they initially lied about the explosion full stop, they lied about the levels after they eventually admitted there was a radiation leak , they lied about the design issue of the reactor when it came to the emergency stop.

The UN is not Russia. The IAEA is not Russia.

but even forgetting that, it isnt how many people HAVE died it is the potential for disaster on a scale we have not seen yet. be it an accident, negligence, act or god, act of war or some bad actor deliberately sabotaging it in an act of terrorism.

how many miles of land are considered dangerous even now around Chernobyll ? and that was a fairly small explosion compared to what it could be. then add into that the costs of maintaining the dome around that power station and the expense of getting rid or storing of the nuclear waste and stripping down an end of life reactor even if nothing goes wrong.

Can you tell me how a modern nuclear fission power station could fail in a way far worse than Chernobyl? Or as bad? Or how a power station could have an explosion that would make the one at Chernobyl seem "fairly small" in comparison?

So yes I accept we need some nuclear but anyone who tries to say Hydro/wind/solar is more expensive, more dangerous or potentially more environmentally impactful either has an agenda or has been smoking too much of the good stuff imo.

Wind and solar, no. They're in the same ballpark as fission regarding danger. Cost is somewhat debatable once you account for the fact that massive overcapacity is required because the nameplate generating capacity of wind and solar is so misleading that it's reasonable to call it a lie, but it's probably cheaper. Although maybe not if small modular fission reactors work. Potentially more environmentally impactful, no. Actually more environmentally impactful, I'd say also no but I'm not sure because the environmental impact is very different.

Hydro is definitely more dangerous. Arguably more potentially environmentally impactful, although that's debateable as the type of impact is very different. Banqiao killed ~230,000 people and devastated so large an area that ~11,000,000 people were left homeless. And Banqiao wasn't even a worst case scenario for hydroelectric.

On a lighter note

Without nuclear power we would never have had The Big Bus (film) so there is that :D

I remember my mum taking me to the cinema to watch that!
 
I see your point about hydro however I am looking at it a different way. let's say a damn fails and kills 1000s and floods a city. that is awful but after 15 years the after effects will be gone (at least in terms of not deadly)

OTOH let's say a bomb hits Zaporizhzhia power station. For all my issues with Putin I do not believe he would deliberately destroy it but a miscalculation or alternatively a failure due to not correctly running/maintaining it during a war, sure!.

perhaps initially the deaths will be less than the hydro failure, but potentially it is the longer term consequences which concern me.

back to Chernobyl in truth I don't think anyone truly knows the exact number of deaths related to it. anyone who gets cancer, every aborted foetus or odd birth defect from anyone who was/is near there *could* be related or maybe not.....
Chernobyl is the gift which keeps on giving and will for many many years. Even if we accept it's safe now, it's still expensive maintaining it.

I say all this accepting we need nuclear (though I wish more had been done with thorium which seems much safer) but would rather minimise it
and Hinkley point C we still don't know what that will cost us and neither has anyone AFAIK demonstrated an economically viable small nuclear reactor yet.

(edit. that said ... I just read that someone has attacked Chernobyl and damaged the jacket around it! genuinely wonder sometimes if we as as species need to be exterminated)
 
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No change there - you've ignored almost everything posted by almost everyone.

Your most recent post reached new heights of ignoring things, though. You ignored the difference between the Soviet Union, the United Nations and the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Other things you've ignored are:

The difference between fission and fusion.
The difference between a power station and an unregulated dump site for the early Soviet nuclear weapons program (which they didn't even understand properly since it was partially based on stolen partial information).
The differences between a 1950s design for a fission power station and a modern design for one.
The difference between 2 (the actual number of catastrophic failures of nuclear power stations) and an unspecified large number.
The difference between a false appeal to authority and legitimate references to authority.

Probably some more, but I don't care enough to reread your posts.

Although I think the most important thing being widely ignored is the limits of the choices we have:

i) Use some fission power along with renewables.
ii) Continue to burn fossil fuels and biomass along with renewables.
iii) The end of modern civilisation, the death of billions of people and huge environmental damage.

Not great choices, but that's what we've got to work with. There are potential solutions that would be better, but none of them exist yet so we can't use them. We don't know when they'll exist. Or if they'll exist.

I'd go for (i) and R&D for as many of those potential solutions as possible so we can get at least 1 of them working as soon as possible. I don't care if it's fusion, some form of mass energy storage with enough capacity, a global energy grid, dilithium crystals, whatever. Anything that works.

Since I'm not ignoring your posts, I'll also reply to your command to buy and read a book just because you told me to. No. I don't always follow book club recommendations and I'm not even in your book club.

I went looking for details on the nuclear power station in Whitehall that you said almost had a catastrophic failure. I couldn't find anything at all. Can you give me some more details? A link would be nice, but even a date would help. Or a country. Or anything.



As for the death toll of Chernobyl, there is legitimate scope for uncertainty about it because it depends on what statistical modelling you choose. In most cases it's impossible to be sure of the degree of possibility that an illness was or wasn't caused by Chernobyl. But even the highest estimate is less than half of the death toll of the worst hydroelectric power station failure (and there have been far more dam failures than nuclear power station failures) but that hasn't resulted in the same degree of anti-hydroelectric sentiment.
im choosing to ignore it because i dont want to get dragged into a bloody debate over nuclear, i have my opinion and you have yours, were not going to change each others by arguing over the internet are we? sometimes its better just to let things go but since your insisting a reply to what seems like win an internet discussion il bite.

1. fision and fusion i fully appreciate are different things, tell me something are they not maintained by fallible people? if modern designs cant generally have accidents then great but we wont know how true that is until soemthing does or potentially happens will we.
2. not sure where you have got that from i think maybe you were talking to someone else about that, I've not mentioned anything to do with unregulated waste sites
3. no design has ever been 100% bullet proof has it? just because we haven't had a modern accident recently doesn't mean it CANT happen, see end of point 1.
3. it was a rough estimate from memory, i also never said anything about catastrophic, i insinuated accident and then went on in other posts to say how they can be catastrophic in less uncertain terms.
4. ive given you a legitimate reference, its your choice if you want to read it or not.
5 the choice as you call it, you seem to be coming at this from an angle where you seem to think I'm anti nuclear, again you are wrong and making an assumption. im not against doing nuclear correctly with correct processes and backup procedures in place designed to stop people from making mistakes.
6. command? its your choice to do it or not there is no command, but you asked for material and ive pointed you to it, you just dont like the fact that you have to go do some actual reading from a book rather than have google do the work for you.
7.back to the root of the problem all the other bs aside, that's the point isn't it, we don't truly know one way or the other, but you've said only 30 people died and stated what google and the un and who or whatever have told you and they are based on factual ground evidence collected during the event?
the anti nuclear point again im not anti nuclear, you've made that assumption based on me saying accidents can and will happen and that those accidents can have catastrophic consequences does that mean we dont need a solution no absolutely not but we sure dont need a bad solution do we?
and with that lets agree to disagree shall we.
in reference to where i said whitehall, sorry i meant windscale.. and it wasnt a catosropic failure, but from memory 20 seconds from becoming one.
 
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Yes actually, there is a need.

You are choosing to ignore all evidence presented in favor of your "I know best" attitude.

The arrogance to think you know better than the collective sum of all knowledge from the various atomic energy agencies across the planet speaks volumes about you.

At that point niceties go out the window I'm afraid.

If you want to be treated decently, try engaging in a decent debate where you don't just dismiss anything that does not align to your own personal opinion. (which is founded on NOTHING, by the way, because you haven't learnt a damn thing from every piece of evidence presented to you)
evidence? ive given a reference back to material that counters what's been discussed keep up.. are you saying your evidence is better than mine? so far i havnt seen any from the other side all ive seen is material from google and news articles. generally factual figures for things like this come from scientists and certainly not from ocuk forums, unless you are saying your a nuclear scientist and you know better than other nuclear scientists?:D but anyway lets not dwell on that.
there's rules on the forum that you kind of have to follow...
this says more about you than it does me I'm afraid.
 
[..] i have my opinion and you have yours, were not going to change each others by arguing over the internet are we? [..]

No. It's not about you. It's about people who might read your posts and be misled by them.

My objections;

i) Your claim that everything you write has the full authority of science and that everything everyone else writes is ignorant twaddle regurgitated from Google. In reality, the closest you've got to science (eventually, after a lot of prodding) was ordering me to buy and read a book you claim supports one part of one of your comments. Whereas other people have provided references to scientific papers.

ii) Your more...extraordinary...claims, e.g. that a nuclear power station could destroy the world.

Accept when it goes wrong it has the potential to detroy the planet.

iii) Your obvious lack of knowledge of the subject you claim to be such an authority on. Particularly fusion.



2. not sure where you have got that from i think maybe you were talking to someone else about that, I've not mentioned anything to do with unregulated waste sites

You have, but you didn't know what you were referring to. It's in other posts, but you're deliberately ignoring what anyone else writes so you wouldn't have seen it.

Regarding Chernobyl and disasters at nuclear fission power stations in general, you wrote this:

check out a few of the others too there's lets see another 1 in russia that was covered up can't recall the name of where it's at now and Fukushima to name 2 of the top of my head

In reality there have only been two (Chernobyl and Fukushima Daiichi), and the only other major nuclear disasters have been the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki and the situation at Kyshtym. So you were referring to Kyshtym. Which was a dump site for waste from the early Soviet nuclear weapons program. Most of the waste was simply dumped into a nearby lake. I think it's fair to describe that as "unregulated". The rest was dumped in a barely regulated way, into an inadequate and unsuitable tank. Which exploded.
 
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Accept when it goes wrong it has the potential to detroy the planet. weve been extremely lucky in all of the known meltdowns.

How?

How was Chernobyl lucky? It clearly didn't destroy the planet, at worst you'd have had perhaps a bigger area or some local water supplies contaminated but again... nowhere near planet destroying.
 
I see your point about hydro however I am looking at it a different way. let's say a damn fails and kills 1000s and floods a city. that is awful but after 15 years the after effects will be gone (at least in terms of not deadly)

OTOH let's say a bomb hits Zaporizhzhia power station. For all my issues with Putin I do not believe he would deliberately destroy it but a miscalculation or alternatively a failure due to not correctly running/maintaining it during a war, sure!.

perhaps initially the deaths will be less than the hydro failure, but potentially it is the longer term consequences which concern me. [..]

Me too. I didn't say that the potential environmental impact in the event of a catastrophic failure is definitely worse with hydro than with fission. I said that I think the overall environmental impact is difficult to compare because of the differences:

Hydro is definitely more dangerous. Arguably more potentially environmentally impactful, although that's debateable as the type of impact is very different.

The environmental impact that will definitely occur is worse with hydro than with fission. Hydro is guaranteed to devastate the local environment by flooding it to create the reservoir. There are also uncertainties about the environmental impact in the event of a major failure. Most of the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone has had some non-trivial environmental benefits from the lack of people living there.

I agree with you when you say "potentially it is the longer term consequences which concern me" but I think there's a degree of uncertainty specifically about environmental impact (overall, with and without catastrophic failure).
 
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No. It's not about you. It's about people who might read your posts and be misled by them.

My objections;

i) Your claim that everything you write has the full authority of science and that everything everyone else writes is ignorant twaddle regurgitated from Google. In reality, the closest you've got to science (eventually, after a lot of prodding) was ordering me to buy and read a book you claim supports one part of one of your comments. Whereas other people have provided references to scientific papers.

ii) Your more...extraordinary...claims, e.g. that a nuclear power station could destroy the world.



iii) Your obvious lack of knowledge of the subject you claim to be such an authority on. Particularly fusion.





You have, but you didn't know what you were referring to. It's in other posts, but you're deliberately ignoring what anyone else writes so you wouldn't have seen it.

Regarding Chernobyl and disasters at nuclear fission power stations in general, you wrote this:



In reality there have only been two (Chernobyl and Fukushima Daiichi), and the only other major nuclear disasters have been the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki and the situation at Kyshtym. So you were referring to Kyshtym. Which was a dump site for waste from the early Soviet nuclear weapons program. Most of the waste was simply dumped into a nearby lake. I think it's fair to describe that as "unregulated". The rest was dumped in a barely regulated way, into an inadequate and unsuitable tank. Which exploded.
ok since you cant let it go and you seem to be the nuclear authority around here, ive edited my posts and deleted them, so you don't need to worry about it anymore do you :)
 
So yes I accept we need some nuclear but anyone who tries to say Hydro/wind/solar is more expensive, more dangerous or potentially more environmentally impactful either has an agenda or has been smoking too much of the good stuff imo.
they are less reliable, nuclear always gives as much energy as you want.

tides, wind and sun doesn't.

Nuclear doesn't have to be a massive plant anymore.
if we had any sense we would be putting all our weight behind rolls Royce.

any other country would.

for some stupid reason we would rather let china build a plant for us, and then they wonder where all the specialists and the knowledge is in this country... its been outsourced
 
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