Poll: Empty Stadiums - Home Advantage?

[the wopster]

Can we have a poll when the season starts again for a percentage of home wins, as I think it will be as low as 40% @BaZ87

 

[Shamikebab]

What is the normal percentage for home wins?

 

[the wopster]

What is the normal percentage for home wins?

Found this quickly from 16-17 I will have a look for something more up to date
On average, Premier League teams consistently win around 46.2% of home games, while the draw occurs around 27.52% of the time and the away team are victorious in 26.32% of games.

I have gone for the 21-40%

 

[HangTime]

I remember writing a thread here many years ago querying why home advantage was such a factor, as I never really understood it and felt that professional teams should not be influenced by it as much. i.e. how much is down to:

• Crowd boosting the team
• Crowd influencing officials
• Players having better knowledge of the pitch dimensions, weather conditions etc (given they vary between stadia, e.g. Stoke)
• Players generally feeling more comfortable (normal dressing room etc)

With games behind closed doors, the first two are eliminated from the equation. So it will be interesting to see how this pans out.

As for the poll it's a shame the options aren't a bit more granular in the middle section; 0-20 and 81-100 are outliers that simply won't happen, 61-80 extremely unlikely, so we all know it will be either 21-40 or 41-60 it's a shame that's not broken up by 10% increments instead of 20.
To weigh this up properly I think one needs to look at the remaining fixtures, I think an important factor is how many times weaker teams are playing at home against strong opposition meaning it is unlikely they will win.

It's worth noting if you go by bookmaker odds that for English matches the draw is nearly always below 33% chance (sometimes you will see it in corrupt leagues like Italy). In very evenly balanced matches it's usually around 36% chance for home/away win and 29% chance for a draw.

 

[the wopster]

@BaZ87 can we change the percentages to 0-10, 10-20 and so on or not?

 

[BaZ87]

I charge for the 3rd request @woppy101

 

[the wopster]

I charge for the 3rd request @woppy101

Thanks mate, Bottle tops ok ?

 

[the wopster]

So after the first round of games (pretty sure city will win tonight) there have been 4(33.3%)home wins, 4(33.3%)away wins and 4(33%)draws, while I’m not busy I will try and update after each round of matches.

 

[robfosters]

So atm, there’s a 1 in 3 chance of a home win. I think I’ll be staying away from the acca’s for a bit!

 

[the wopster]

So atm, there’s a 1 in 3 chance of a home win. I think I’ll be staying away from the acca’s for a bit!

I think it will level its self a little more in 3-4 weeks, I still think it will be well below the 46% ave for home wins. My guess is still 37-40%

 

[the wopster]

Well after a shaky start in front of empty stadiums, it turns out playing at home had the almost the same advantage with or without fans, there were more away wins than draws compared to normal though, the final scores are (I rounded the percentages up/down)
Total games 92
Home wins 43(46%)
Away wins 29(32%)
Draws 20 (22%)

ave home wins 45%, away 27% draw 28%

 

[Shamikebab]

So it made naff all difference then

 

[HangTime]

More data now available for EPL: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/av/football/56597524

Headline number is that this season there is 37% home wins compared with an average over the past 8 seasons of 46%. There have been more away wins than home wins. Interpolating the data I think that means only 25% of games have been drawn.