EV general discussion

[Simon]

pretty sure every quote says depreciation. except that you fail to read the rest of the sentence that contains either the word curve or trajectory

Explained above. No one’s buying new cars based on trajectory after three years. They look at 20k loss after 3 yrs. or 15k on an ice as it cost less Even if the % is the same (it’s isn’t). And you aren’t saving 5k on fuel in 3yrs now. And deffo not when/if 3p:mile kicks in


I think we agree you but you are looking from the point of view of th guy buying 3 yr old cars. None of the quotes you made are agreeing on the same point either

 

[tamzzy]

Explained above. No one’s buying new cars based on trajectory

pretty sure the majority of the latest posts have been about used EVs

^
explained above too

 

[Simon]

^
explained above too

Deprecation is on a new asset. Never heard people use it in the context of a second hand car. The whole point you make is that an Ev go so cheap so you bought one ! someone had to buy that new and take the hit so it existed for you to buy.

 

[Journey]

My Audi still runs the same as the day I bought it

Have you spent anything on servicing or repairs? If so what is the total in 7 years for all those things? Also have you paid for any extended warranty? I'd also say how many miles have you covered and what is your average MPG? If you are looking at minimising costs, then you need to look at where you won't be spending a much money vs the extra you *might* loose due to a bit of added deprecation.

I've had mobile phones that still meet my needs but the battery degradation meant I had to either replace the battery or get a new phone. Most places wouldn't touch a used phone with a battery below a certain capacity. I know this isn't exactly how an EV works, and maybe I need some education, but I struggle with it.

Perhaps avoid an EV for now, as you'll spend way too much time being anxious about depreciation or the battery dying on you. Or as you say spend some time educating yourself, with help from others. There is plenty of information in the public domain now, and lots and lots of people have been running EV's for a good while, almost 6 years here, so there is proven history around to help.

 

[tamzzy]

Deprecation is on a new asset. Never heard people use it in the context of a second hand car. The whole point you make is that an Ev go so cheap so you bought one ! someone had to buy that new and take the hit so it existed for you to buy.

Depreciation is on any asset. Just because it's bought used doesn't mean it doesn't depreciate further, for the next person to buy it off me

Oh, and as a non-gucci belt wearer...I thank you for taking the hit on the EV depreciation so I don't need to

 

[bigmike20vt]

2nd hand EVs around the 3 year mark are in an odd place imo.
the discounts and subsidies on brand new cars now and combined with some crazy RRPs that no one would ever pay means that a 3 year old car is almost like the ginger stepchild...... without a big price cut why would you buy one at 3.years old?!

which makes their initial depreciation look massive.
add to that some people paid some ludicrously high prices 3-4 years ago which makes even a sensible 2nd hand price now look like a big drop.

 

[tamzzy]

I think we agree you but you are looking from the point of view of th guy buying 3 yr old cars. None of the quotes you made are agreeing on the same point either

you are correct that i am looking at this from the perspective of a buyer of a 3 year old EV
and indeed your perspective is a buyer of a new EV

a new EV ran for 3 years does have horrendous depreciation, i've said so myself previously:

for example, my 2022 model 3 LR AWD i just paid tesla £20k, and comes with an extra 1 year of tesla warranty
new in 2022 = £51k less 3k 2022 EV grant + £2k red paint + £3.4k enhanced autopilot + £1.5k acceleration boost = £55k

63% depreciation in 3 years is crazy!

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2nd hand EVs around the 3 year mark are in an odd place imo.
the discounts and subsidies on brand new cars now and combined with some crazy RRPs that no one would ever pay means that a 3 year old car is almost like the ginger stepchild...... without a big price cut why would you buy one at 3.years old?!

which makes their initial depreciation look massive.
add to that some people paid some ludicrously high prices 3-4 years ago which makes even a sensible 2nd hand price now look like a big drop.

tbh, most new EV buyers are via companies or salary sacrifice schemes so that's easily 45% off the list price (paid via less taxes to HMG)
so, if we halved the depreciation at face value, it falls more broadly in line with an equivalent ICE vehicle
but what matters more to the majority is the headline values

 

[ICDP]

Deprecation is on a new asset. Never heard people use it in the context of a second hand car. The whole point you make is that an Ev go so cheap so you bought one ! someone had to buy that new and take the hit so it existed for you to buy.

I’m not sure what point you are trying to make here? You seem to be ignoring the fact that used still depreciates and that applies regardless of fuel type. The baseline for depreciation is whatever you originally paid for the item, that can be new or used.

Residuals on some EVs for the first two years is indeed worse, which is a good thing for used EV buyers. Obviously this is all going to be model dependent and in many cases some EVs have comparable depreciation to ICE. Research is key here because on an EV with decent depreciation, by year 3 - 6 they are going to have an even flatter depreciation curve, and they have also saved on fuel costs for the previous years in their life cycle.

For example some of the cheaper entry EVs such as the ID.3/Born, by year 3 the used prices for lower mileage models are still at over 50% original MSRP* according to autotrader. A larger battery version will tend to have lower depreciation. My 2023 77kWh Born V3 would cost about £41000 new with the options it came with. I bought it at 22 months old for £24800 here in N.Ireland (think about £1200 more expensive than the mainland). According to your logic, I had already lost £16200 on depreciation, which of course makes zero sense.

* Buying prices used, not trade in prices.

 

[chanjy]

tbh, most new EV buyers are via companies or salary sacrifice schemes so that's easily 45% off the list price (paid via less taxes to HMG)
so, if we halved the depreciation at face value, it falls more broadly in line with an equivalent ICE vehicle
but what matters more to the majority is the headline values

This is the key point

Sal sacrifice and low BIK means the demand for new BEV is higher than demand for used BEV which drives the depreciation

Just like an ex company car BMW 3 series used to be super cheap to pick up used because so many of them were being spat out by the system

 

[ICDP]

This is the key point

Sal sacrifice and low BIK means the demand for new BEV is higher than demand for used BEV which drives the depreciation

Just like an ex company car BMW 3 series used to be super cheap to pick up used because so many of them were being spat out by the system

Exactly, it only looks bad if people are actually paying the list prices for private purchases. Unfortunately some people actually do this and especially during the absolute nonsense prices we had for new and especially used EVs in 2022.

Edit just to add: The grant scheme has helped somewhat with private purchase prices but as usual dealers will find a way to pocket this.

 

[jpaul]

the depreciation curve/value for a second hand purchaser following fleet ownership and 3/4 years manufacture warranty is yet to be revealed as cars reach 6+ years age,
(typical AT tesla prices of £12K at 100K miles gives an idea.?)

it is less reduction in range with battery approaching 8yr/100K rather the costs associated with unbalanced/failing module replacement from the small group of garages that can cope with that
compared say, to replacing a cambelt say that might be seen as a similar event on ice - 3rd party battery battery warranty to expose early stages of imbalanced modules will help.
(£3K ev bill looks typical)

newer Increased efficiency evs(tesla excepted), where range less of a concern will also impact older ev depreciation/attractiveness

 

[ICDP]

What a terrible comparison and reeks of anti EV BS. You are portraying a cam belt failure on a high mileage ICE as a simple and easy cam belt replacement. The chances of a cam belt failure without proper maintenance is incredibly high and the results are catastrophic. This usually means a write off on older high mileage ICE.

A battery pack failure is exceptionally rare in a modern (post 2020) EV with decent BMS. The vast majority of credible sources indicate an EV battery will last longer than the rest of the car.

A far more accurate comparison would be a total engine failure on an older high mileage ICE. Even then pretty much all EVs have an 8 year ~100,000 mile battery warranty. So for the vast VAST majority of owners, a battery failure will fall under warranty and would be very rare.

The stories you hear about “new” EVs being written off due to replacement battery costs are generally because of a crash resulting in excessive damage. Or if they fall outside warranty.

So when you read of the EV6 having a battery failure at 104,000 miles, that’s because it is not covered under warranty and the car is worth a lot less than a new 77kWh battery.

 

[Jonnycoupe]

The value drop is particularly evident for stuff like Taycan with 100% write down. Anyone wanting to buy one was buying them new. Too expensive for most punters to pick them up secondhand but Mr powerfully built company director could just buy a brand new one over and over and didnt need to dip into the used market.

 

[chanjy]

Yup exactly, residuals driven by tax incentives for new cars, not by any underlying problem with batteries or warranties

Also jp, average UK driver is 6k miles so a 6y old 100k miles example is far from representative.

 

[lordrobs]

Only once there is reasonably priced public charging for the masses should there be a ban imo.

Couldn't agree more.

I'll await the usual "Yeah but ICE will be around for 20 years+ so they can just buy used" response.

 

[ICDP]

Agreed. A total ICE ban would be stupid without investing in an infrastructure that works for ever car owner. I see the ban being moved because they as usual had hoped the private sector would rescue them. The truth is capitalism doesn’t work when it comes to “doing the right thing”, only what drives the market.

 

[chanjy]

I think you'd have to define reasonably priced tbh.

If you mean same ppm as petrol then we're already there, it's just a volume of chargers issue and we need more grid connections for that to really expand.

 

[ICDP]

I think you'd have to define reasonably priced tbh.

If you mean same ppm as petrol then we're already there, it's just a volume of chargers issue and we need more grid connections for that to really expand.

We are already there but the price parity is not enough as it adds to journey time “on paper”. We both know people tend to stop for a break but the mental block will be the “having to stop” rather than “choosing to stop”. This is especially important for those who have no home charging access.

 

[Simon]

These are back in Plymouth now on old location of the free ones Pop out from urban fox

On way down there’s 73p ionity and Wenea 69p DC spotted about

This 7kW is 50p peak and 12am-6am 43p Not too bad if you are here already but need cheaper destination charging for more adoption I think especially if 3p a mile comes in

 

[Dr Jack]

EV depreciation will normalise in time. The current high levels are a result of rapid development and improvement in these cars as well as ever dropping prices for key components. ICE cars also got better over time, of course, but it's a long time since we've seen such a rapid change in the range and quality of ICE cars that we've seen in EVs over the last 5-10 years.

There's no inherent reason EVs must depreciate faster, the opposite if anything.

We are already there but the price parity is not enough as it adds to journey time “on paper”. We both know people tend to stop for a break but the mental block will be the “having to stop” rather than “choosing to stop”.

EVs really do add journey time on longer journeys, but not at a horrific level and most people win all of that back and more through the fact you're not having to go and fill it up every couple of weeks or so. The ability to charge at home is a much bigger win than needing to stop for 15 minutes to charge every so often on a longer trip.

This is especially important for those who have no home charging access.

And there's the "but". The infrastructure is still too sparse and too costly for people who can't charge at home.