And if anyone could answer that with a definate, they would be a millionaire by now.
If you want my opinion - wait until as close to your holiday as possible.
I 'believe' it will get over the $2 mark around July time again. Possibly $2.08.
But thats just my guess. It could always go the other way, as the world economy is pretty unpredictable these days.
And as for cash/Cheques - take enough cash to do you a few days - I never bother with Travellers Cheques as they are too much hassle and the rates are usually rubbish. I always use a Nationwide Visa debit card with no fees ( You will currently get $1.98 - April 10th rate from a no-fee ATM in the US ) - VERY hard to beat !