F1 2015 predictions thread

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Mr Jack

Mr Jack

Mr Jack

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Testing is done, so it's time to put your dignity on the line and rattle out some predictions.

I think the top slots are pretty easy this year:

1. Hamilton
2. Rosberg

The only thing that will stop that happening is a string of bad luck on Hamilton's behalf. The next slots are trickier, but I think the Williams has the edge and so Bottas will secure third.

3. Bottas

After that I think Ferrari will be close enough to take the 4th slot, but will it go to Kimi or Seb? Seb has the better record and Kimi had a poor last season however Seb seems to struggle in a midfield car and without the car being set up to favour Alonso's idiosyncratic style I think Kimi will bring it back again this year. Meanwhile I think Ricciardo's talent will be enough to secure 5th despite a car that's not even in the top three.

4. Kimi
5. Ricciardo

Moving on to the constructor front, the top slot is given, then Williams and Ferrari. I'm sure Red Bull will do enough to secure 4th and then I'm going to go out on a limb and predict McLaren outperform expectations and bring home a few decent race results in the latter part of the season:

1. Mercedes
2. Williams
3. Ferrari
4. Red Bull
5. McLaren
 
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Drivers:
1. Hamilton
2. Rosberg
3. Bottas
4. Ricciardo
5. Vettel

I think Seb will get the better of Kimi as I have a feeling this could be his final season and his motivation will decrease for me.

Vettel's only had one bad year in a car that was a great deal different at the rear with the lack of a blown exhaust he was used to having and constantly winning in.

Ricciardo 4th for me as I think Williams have improved further over the winter and the lack of a full time Adrian Newey will start to hurt during the summer break.

The constructors is anyone's guess quite frankly! With Kvyat's first year in the main Red Bull car I think they will obtain less points than with Vettel in the car. So I doubt they will hang on to 2nd place in that department.

1. Mercedes
2. Williams
3. Red Bull
4. Ferrari
5. Lotus

Lotus are 5th due to the fact they have a far superior engine compared to McLaren at the moment. But with in-season upgrades the Honda might be vastly improved by the time Yas Marina comes around...
 
Drivers:

1. Hamilton
2. Rosberg
3. Kimi
4. Bottas
5. Vettel

I think the Ferrari will start of slightly behind the Williams but develop better over the season, I think Seb will continue again to struggle without the blown diffuser but still get decent results, just not enough to beat Kimi.

I rate Ricciardo (and Kvyat for that matter) quite highly, but I think the Red Bull is going to suffer even more from that poor engine with a seemingly much improved Ferrari engine.

1. Mercedes
2. Ferrari
3. Williams
4. Red Bull
5. Force India

Like above I think the Ferrari getting better will favour them over the course of the season, I think McLaren will lose far too much in the first few rounds to catch up, even if they do get things sorted 'soon'.
 
I'm going to go with...

Drivers
Hamilton
Rosberg
Bottas
Vettel
Ricciardo

Teams
Mercedes
Ferrari
Williams
Red Bull
Force India
 
Would be a brave person to bet against hamilton at this point.

Drivers:
Hamilton
Rosberg
Bottas
Vettel
Ricardo
Vettel

Teams:
Mercedes
Williams
Ferrari
Red bull
Lotus
Red bull

Something along those lines anyway :p
 
Drivers:
Hamilton
Rosberg
Ricciardo
Bottas
Kvyat

Teams:
Mercedes
Red Bull
Williams
Ferrari
Lotus
 
Drivers:

Hamilton
Rosberg
Bottas
Vettel
Raikkonen

Teams:
Mercedes
Williams
Red Bull
Ferrari
Lotus

Drivers wise 3-5 is interchangeable for me, I could add Ricciardo into that mix. Totally depends on who comes out with the 2nd best package for me after the Mercs. If Ferrari is as good as they seemed in testing then I can easily see both Raikkonen and Vettel dueling for podium finishes. Ferrari has the driver pairing, whether the car holds up or not is to be determined in Melbourne.

Williams the safe bet, from where they were last year and Red Bull are a mystery to me.
 
Rosberg *
Hamilton *
Bottas
Massa
Vettel

Mercedes
Williams
Ferrari
Red Bull
Lotus

* subject to Nicole flirting with the idea of getting back together but remaining apart. Otherwise Hamilton > Rosberg.
 
Out of interest why is everyone playing down Red Bull as a prospect? Quite frequently outside the top 5 drivers and in the lower end of the top 5 teams? They got 3rd and 2nd respectively last year and have been fine in testing - as we already know, testing doesn't reveal who's actually faster (look at RB last year for example).
 
Marvin said:
Out of interest why is everyone playing down Red Bull as a prospect? Quite frequently outside the top 5 drivers and in the lower end of the top 5 teams? They got 3rd and 2nd respectively last year and have been fine in testing - as we already know, testing doesn't reveal who's actually faster (look at RB last year for example).
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1. Renault engine
2. Ricciardo had a great season last year and I'm not sure he can repeat it given the strength of the opposition. Kvyat is unproven as a points accumulator in a top team
3. I dislike Christian Horner and his Euro beard
4. The silly testing livery
5. The nasty music they play in the garage after a race win

3, 4 and 5 are clearly personal opinion and may not affect racing performance.
 
Marvin said:
Out of interest why is everyone playing down Red Bull as a prospect? Quite frequently outside the top 5 drivers and in the lower end of the top 5 teams? They got 3rd and 2nd respectively last year and have been fine in testing - as we already know, testing doesn't reveal who's actually faster (look at RB last year for example).
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Testing gives a very very good impression of speed, I'm not sure why people think otherwise.

Take for example that Merc matched Williams in testing last year with the slower tire and Ferrari were a hair over a second behind Williams in their fastest lap. Average qualifying for the season, Williams a half second behind Merc and Ferrari averaged about a second behind Williams. This year Ferrari to some degree matched Williams in pace. On the slower(much cooler) second last day both Massa and Kimi posted almost identical times, on the fastest last day Bottas only managed a 2/10ths faster time. Ferrari have closed the gap in ultimate pace by a large amount, maybe not all the way and maybe they ran less fuel than Williams but the gap was very obviously closer and Ferrari's race simulation times were WAY improved over the Barca race last year.

Thing is last year Ferrari, Mclaren, Sauber, Lotus, simply made monumental mistakes that dropped them down the grid. RBR weren't fast last year, they were the least slow of the rest. Lotus, Ferrari and Sauber have un-****** their cars biggest problems and all three have significantly improved engines. All three will likely disproportionately move up the grid compared to where they were last year.


RBR had one of it not the best aero/chassis designs but a weak engine and they were nowhere vs Merc and struggled with Williams towards the end of the season(and any lower downforce tracks). Trouble is aero can only get so good and other teams, Williams included, will improve there. But engine wise, what was their weakest feature but not the weakest engine on the grid has likely become the worst engine on the grid and the gap increased to Merc teams. There are a lot of indications that while they had a fight with Williams last year, they will be more likely to be fighting with Ferrari than Williams and it wouldn't be surprising to see Ferrari beat RBR at all.

Some race pace numbers.

http://www.f1fanatic.co.uk/2014/05/11/2014-spanish-grand-prix-lap-times-fastest-laps/

From last years race Kimi doing 1:33-34 in the first stint, 1:32-33 second stint, and 1:31-32 in the final stint.


https://fbcdn-sphotos-d-a.akamaihd....752_859570957421844_4989736357629197267_o.jpg

race sim in worse conditions, slower track and we have first stint doing times between 1:30-1.32.4 but it's probably a 1:31.2 average or so, second stint, 1:29.5-1:31 with an average probably in the middle. Final stint, 1:27.9-1:30, average about a 1:28.5.

Numbers are a little all over, this was their first long run, probably a lot of ERS variation, running out of power for a lap, gaining it back but they would also likely do that on purpose. The biggest thing they need is ERS improvements and to get an idea of charging over race distance, reliability, power they can use, etc.

Either way, they appear to have effectively gained a full 3 seconds in race pace, other teams have gained a lot as well but 3 seconds is a lot.

Also worth noting is that Ferrari qualifying at Barcelona with a 1:27.104 while they posted a 1:23.2 as their fastest time in testing. Williams had a 1:26.6 qualifying with the same time in testing.

Ferrari were 2 seconds down on Merc, Williams were 1.4 seconds down, this wasn't a strong Williams track and this is one of the tracks Kimi was genuinely fast at(beating alonso marginally in qualifying), which is why I think they haven't caught Williams yet. But it still shows significant improvement in efficiency in race pace, in outright qualifying pace, in closing the gap on Williams.
 
Did predictions in a separate post.

Drivers

Hamilton
Rosberg
Bottas
Kimi
Ricciardo
Massa
Vettel


Constructors
Merc
Williams*
Ferrari*
RBR
Lotus


I think with any other driver pair up(okay, any half decent pairing) Lotus could well finish ahead of RBR, reliability, engine strength. They'll be able to develop the car this year rather than not finish every other race like last year. They'll have speed and more money(less on engines :p ) so I think the engine would maybe allow them to beat RBR in multiple races and due to reliability beat them in the constructors. But they have Mr Crashy and Mr Crashyevenmore in the team.

I'm fairly certain that is why Lotus won't beat RBR, the *'s are because I don't know if that could cause Ferrari to beat Williams. Massa is MrCrashy*light, he does it, not as bad as Maldonado and they have a better car and qualifying well... less cars to hit. But if Kimi/Vettel have a reliable year and Massa goes around finding random people to hit again I could see Ferrari beating them. It's part of the reason RBR beat WIlliams last year. 80 points behind RBR with one driver who scored 50 points less than the other, largely down to hitting crap. Thing is if Massa scored 50 more points, that probably means RBR get less points as well, could have made the difference.
 
Marvin said:
Out of interest why is everyone playing down Red Bull as a prospect? Quite frequently outside the top 5 drivers and in the lower end of the top 5 teams? They got 3rd and 2nd respectively last year and have been fine in testing - as we already know, testing doesn't reveal who's actually faster (look at RB last year for example).
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Yeah, it's possible that RBR will surprise us but on the basis of testing it looks like the Renault engine has gone backwards with respect to the Ferrari and Mercedes engines and with Newey stepping back from the day-to-day design role I'm expecting them to have a challenging year as they try and figure out how the team works now and I expect that to limit their ability to come back.

Also, James Allen has some figures from when they did full race sims which puts them in the order Williams-Ferrari-Red Bull.

Of course, as you say, teams can surprise us coming out of testing. In fact, I'd be surprised if at least one team didn't do that, but testing remains the best information we have.
 
Drivers
Hamilton
Rosberg
Bottas
Vettel
Massa
Ricciardo
Kimi
Alonso

Constructors:
Mercedes
Williams
Ferrari
RBR
McLaren


Thought I'd put some McLaren in the mix as their potential is unknown, if they get on top of their issues by Europe they could be up there with plenty of points still up for grabs.
 
I think the drivers championship will be a 123 for Mercedes power, Hamilton and Rosberg will hopefully have another great duel for first and Bottas will take third. After that I've no idea, Ferrari looked very promising in Jerez and with Vettle behind the wheel could take a lot of points, but they were not as strong at Barcelona as I'd hoped. Red Bull will no doubt be very dominant but I don't know enough about the drivers to call it between them and Ferrari.

Drivers
Hamilton
Rosberg
Bottas
Vettel
Ricciardo
Kimi?
 
The_Abyss said:
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drunkenmaster said:
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Mr Jack said:
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I'm not necessarily saying they'll be number 2 straight away, but they do have a tendency to make good strategy calls in race, and are very good at development through the year. The Renault engine I think will be their undoing if anything, as they have two drivers who are quite comfortable scything through from worse qualifying positions.

On top of that, the testing stats can only show outright pace (assuming they're pushing as they would in Q3 or a race), and yet last year Williams finished behind RBR in drivers and constructors championships. I think they've got a bit to learn in race strategy, and last year it was also not that good to its tyres last year. I do accept that they had some Massa-related crashing issues though.
 
Drivers:
Hamilton
Rosberg
Kimi
Bottas
Vettel

Constructors:
Merc
Ferrari
Williams
Red Bull
Lotus

Edit: To expand on my predictions, it seems clear Merc are clearly the fastest and if testing is anything to go by have even better reliability and I don't see a reason why Hamilton cannot out score Roberg again. From testing Williams and Ferrari are close, it appears Williams are faster but I think over the course of a season Ferrari will be the quicker. Now Ferrari have changed design and seems it has a front end Kimi likes then I think Kimi will be fast again while Vettel will be settling in to a new team / car I think he will do reasonably well but not be right up the sharp end. Reb Bull are the great unknown, given their testing pace it seems they have moved backwards but they can develop so fast through a season that any deficits they have to other teams will be closed. As much they develop the car though I do not think they will overcome the power advantages that Merc and Ferrari have.
 
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