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Graphics card availability predictions.

Spiritwolf

Spiritwolf

Spiritwolf

Associate
Joined
2 Feb 2021
Posts
206
Since the availability of graphics card is such a joke right now, might as well make a game out of it.

Lets see your best guess on when different graphics card will become widely available (when there are stock readily available to purchase), feel free to attach the reason for your guess, and see who is right at by the end of the year.

Lets keep it light hearted :)

Nvidia
3060Ti - Until Crypto Collapse (EoY?)
3070 - Mid April
3080 - Until Crypto Collapse (EoY?)
3090 - Mid March

AMD
6800 - April
6800XT - May
6900XT - April

Reasons:
3060Ti and 3080 are by far the best mining graphics card right now, demand is going to be unlimited until mining is no longer profitable.

3070 - Decent card for gaming and all rounder, seems to have a good production rate and profit margins for manufacturers, once lock down ends and everyone starts spending money outside supply should have caught up.

3090 - Pretty niche card imo, people seem to be only buying it because other cards are not available, as soon as other cards become more readily available demand should fall sharply.

AMD cards.
AMD cards suck for mining, which is a good thing, and also a lot of people still have not warmed up to their graphics card yet, so demand shouldn't be where they are at the moment, the main issue is AMD pretty much just making consoles at the moment.
Once they really start ramping up graphics card production their cards should becoming more readily available, it is a shame they are not using this opportunity to steal gaming market share from nvidia but instead focus on consoles. Once people start going out console demand will ease and that should fix itself.

Once mining collapses I predict there will a huge flood of cheap graphics cards selling at half to 1/3 price of their MSRPs due to miners bailing out. (Remember back in 2019 where you could find a x570 for £60 on EB?) Similar situation should play out.
 
Here goes mine... talking about availability, not about "normal" prices.

Nvidia
3060Ti - At least 6 months after crypto collapse... April/May next year?
3070 - Early next year, altough we might be able to see some during christmas. Say January 2022.
3080 - Next Christmas if we don't see a crypto collapse anytime soon. December 2021.
3090 - March-April 2021, why not... no idea really.

AMD
6800 - June 2021
6800XT - July 2021
6900XT - June 2021

Reasons:
Nvidia cards seems to be very valued for mining... I don't see miners getting rid of them quick, even if we see a collapse. They'll be probably hold them and even keep mining for a while looking for a surge in crypto prices again. That's if we see a collapse even, of course. Cheaper models will be more difficult to find, as by the time they become available, many of us will have been looking for a GPU for quite a while.

AMD cards aren't that good for mining. I, as a gamer, don't care about how much power I need to keep my GPU running, as I only play one-two hours a day... if consoles become aviable on the short term, we might see AMD cards being available "soon" after.

I can't predict what will happen with the second hand market if there is a collapse, but I honestly don't care as I think anything that could actually happen to the market will happen months after the collapse... and we will see GPUs being available for buying before we see an effect on the second hand market. I hope people who have been hoarding GPUs loose money though, I honestly hope so, but I don't think it will be the case.

The important bit, for me, is what Intel is gonna do... would be fantastic if they get into the GPU market again. I think it has been proven having only two manufacturers doesn't do any good to us, customers...

PD: I hope to be very, very wrong... I've been after a new GPU since Feb/march last year... decided to wait until the 3000 series, so I'm stuck here with a 770...
 
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If mining collapses soon, then I personally reckon the 2nd half of this year will mean availability will "start" to improve but it'll take time, if mining continues as it is, then I honestly think we'll be looking at Q1-Q2 2022 at the earliest, if at all. Think I'll take up drinking again!
 
Availability and pricing will be terrible for all for the rest of this year I reckon.

In the process of selling my build and getting a console, miners can have the GPUs and I hope they get stuck with them and bitcoin crashes and they lose everything :)
 
Personally I think once vaccines have been rolled out big time to a majority of people, bitcoin and digital currencies will take a bit of a slump, not only will cards be more available, but I think a lot of second hand cards will come to the market and sellers will have their hand forced to lower prices. By then hopefully I'll be able to get my 3080 strix. I think this will probably happen around Oct/Nov.

However the 3080ti potentially being released at some point could throw a spanner in the works to that prediction
 
Everything Above a Gt 710- Until (IF?)Crypto collapses.

Graphics cards are currently free, as at RRP they can make their price back in a couple of months. That is why they are now non existent :p.

I dont think it can be stressed enough that these are literal money printing machines at the moment so until profitability drops again, i doubt there will be any decent availability.
 
The difficulty of ethereum mining increased by 23% in the last month so very quickly, 3-4 months people will stop buying GPU's for mining in most of the world with UK / EU electricity pricing.
Even if ethererum is $2k in the summer, ROI will be 9+ months on most cards and increasing month on month.

Many miners who expected a 3-4 month ROI will be shocked that they are only breaking even with the resale value of the card at that point.

There is a good chance EIP 1559 will be in effect slashing mining income mid year, if not sooner.
To many whales looking to drive the price up.

At that point miners will be looking to cut their losses, there will be GPU stock on shelves so retail prices will drop closer to MSRP as retailers will need to shift the delgure of cards diverted from mining sales and the used mining cards will be discounted through auctions etc. Lots of 'bargain' :rolleyes:mining rigs for sale. If ethereum price drops to $1K, the party will be over in 2-3 months.

So in summary, by the summer there will be a glut of used cards and good retail availability.

And I hope to be doing anything other than being locked up with my PC at that time!
 
https://www.theblockcrypto.com/post/94740/india-to-ban-crypto-investment-completely-report

If more countries ban crypto then I expect a price crash would happen but the Americans seem to be lapping it up at the moment. Majority of people on crypto messageboards are constantly hyping it up and predicting $1m Bitcoin. I suspect many smaller 'investors' will get burned as the big boys pump and dump it. As for mining, it is profitable now on the back of Bitcoin's rise which cause Ethereum to rise with it. Hopefully it will crash soon and leave the miners high and dry. One can only dream....:(

IF gpu stock is to be linked to crypto prices then I think crypto will take a downturn in about 3-5 months and miners will start selling their cards.
 
I was originally think April/May but now June/July. The bubble will burst at some point. Elon Musk is another large investor to bitcoin now, so difficult to say. But spring and summer with less covid restrictions on life may see a big decrease in electronic goods consumption.

I'm not fussed which market saturates first, new or 2nd hand.
 
The Chinese shipping container problem will be sorted by mid-March. I think one of the problems is not the miners but the reluctance to take a margin hit on shipping the goods too far from China and Taiwan.

Door to door it’s about 50 days so if you start at mid March you end up at the 2nd week in May before the shipping situation returns to normal.
 
Jono8 said:
Everything Above a Gt 710- Until (IF?)Crypto collapses.

Graphics cards are currently free, as at RRP they can make their price back in a couple of months. That is why they are now non existent :p.

I dont think it can be stressed enough that these are literal money printing machines at the moment so until profitability drops again, i doubt there will be any decent availability.
Click to expand...
Pretty much this. Until crypto collapses certain cards won’t ever become readily available, I can’t see a 3080 at £650 ever becoming readily available over its whole lifespan (assuming the above).

3090 supply isn’t too bad but even miners would think twice before spending 2-3x the cost of a 3080 on (basically) a 3080 with more memory.
 
Besty said:
The Chinese shipping container problem will be sorted by mid-March. I think one of the problems is not the miners but the reluctance to take a margin hit on shipping the goods too far from China and Taiwan.

Door to door it’s about 50 days so if you start at mid March you end up at the 2nd week in May before the shipping situation returns to normal.
Click to expand...

Right now all the cards are sold out in China also, there were stock around Jan, but now it is clean shelf since bitcoin blew up, miners bought everything they can get their hands on, assuming they can make the money back within 3 months. I doubt with shipping improvements you will get any more stock.
 
I believe that NVIDIA recently said they will be shortages until the end of April, which means that May they will start to make them in greater numbers, and clearing the backlog, so I am guessing June.
 
McPhee said:
The extent to which crypto crashes will matter too. Say BTC rises to $100k this year, then crashes to $40k. Mining could still be very profitable.
Click to expand...
Yes it could in which case demand will never drop and gamers will be unlikely to get their hands on gpu’s for a long time to come (ever!).

I’m sure Nvidia will have to start nerfing the mining potential of cards so they can get back in the hands of gamers.
 
by the time this round of cards become available, the next gen cards will be knocking on our doors...

for crypto mining to become unprofitable, i think it needs to drop to $10,000. which i dont think will happen now.

but the overall profitability of these miners with 70 RTX cards for instance, will be drastically reduced. so probably when BTC hit $15,000 thats when those rigs starts to take ages to make real money and those miner may start selling cards and hardware to recoup capital investment
 
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