Graphics Supply Constraints Solved – R9 Fury Series To See Wide Availability in Q4

Gregster · 17 Oct 2015 at 16:12

humbug said:
What reports? i don't know of any reports that say Pascal will be available in 5 Months, there are reports that say TSMC's volume production 16nm kicks off in Q2 2016 (assuming no delays) it would be another quarter for final testing, production and channel distribution.

You didn't see Nvidia tapeout on 16nm then?

http://hexus.net/tech/news/graphics/83801-nvidia-tsmc-allegedly-tape-next-gen-14nm-pascal-gpu/

We have heard that AMD plans to move onto using HBM2 in its graphics cards next year sometime but perhaps Nvidia will get there first as the Pascal GP100 GPU could be launched as early as Q1 2016.

I am going on what I have read in the news.

@Tommy, I would assume anyone buying now would have an interest in what is coming in the future (I know I certainly would) and I have no interest in arguing over the sake of price/performance. Pascal could well be 5 months away and I feel AMD are too slow in getting stock on the shelves. If you think it is fine and price drops are great, coolio.

Kaapstad · 17 Oct 2015 at 16:15

CAT-THE-FIFTH said:
If Pascal is only 5 months away then there is little or no point buying a Titan X,GTX980TI,or any of the Fury cards now since they would be destroyed in performance.

Its a full node shrink plus HBM and probably improved DX12 and VR capabilities.

It would be like buying a GTX580 or HD6970 5 months before the GTX680 or HD7970 or a GTX285 5 months before the HD5870.

I don't think Small Pascal will be much of an improvement over the GM200 cards (about 20% extra) and I also don't think Small Pascal will have anything like the 12gb of VRAM found on the TitanX.

We also don't know when exactly SP will launch.

Waiting could be a very long pointless exercise if you are missing out on a quality gaming experience now.

humbug · 17 Oct 2015 at 16:21

Gregster said:
You didn't see Nvidia tapeout on 16nm then?

http://hexus.net/tech/news/graphics/83801-nvidia-tsmc-allegedly-tape-next-gen-14nm-pascal-gpu/

I am going on what I have read in the news.

Marketing speak, by tape-out they don't necessarily mean you can buy them then, by that measure when you can actually buy them is Q2, another Key word is "Could be as soon as" absolutely best case scenario, getting a new node running as needed "best case" doesn't happen, especially these days.

A realistic proposition for when they appear here for sale is Q3 2016

Gregster · 17 Oct 2015 at 16:26

humbug said:
Marketing speak, by tape-out they don't necessarily mean you can buy them then, by that measure when you can actually buy them is Q2, another Key word is "Could be as soon as" absolutely best case scenario, getting a new node running as needed "best case" doesn't happen, especially these days.

A realistic proposition for when they appear here for sale is Q3 2016

They taped out long ago (June iirc). You said 12 months away, so let's see who is closest.

humbug · 17 Oct 2015 at 16:30

Gregster said:
They taped out long ago (June iirc). You said 12 months away, so let's see who is closest.

You just contradicted your own link, they have working test samples, AMD have Working 16nm Zen CPU test samples in production and no doubt 16nm GPU's too, that doesn't mean they are going to be on the shelves in a few months.
Its not the same thing.

Believe it or not it takes years from initial test production to market.

tommybhoy · 17 Oct 2015 at 16:48

Gregster said:
@Tommy, I would assume anyone buying now would have an interest in what is coming in the future (I know I certainly would) and I have no interest in arguing over the sake of price/performance. Pascal could well be 5 months away and I feel AMD are too slow in getting stock on the shelves. If you think it is fine and price drops are great, coolio.

An embarrassment increasing inventory but their too slow in getting stock on shelves, I think your getting yourself in a bit of a muddle.

Obviously I don't think gouging on low stock is fine, I've tried helping you work out how inventory works with using 7970 as example on what happens when it fills up, no ones arguing price point/performance either, your answer to my question would be 980Ti but can see why you didn't answer.

Yes everyone should be aware what's on the horizon, but no one knows when/what is coming and as Kaap rightly pointed out, why wait when you can achieve it now.

Also if someone can afford ~£500 on a gpu, I don't think that many are caring about how long it lasts.

Gregster · 17 Oct 2015 at 16:59

tommybhoy said:
An embarrassment increasing inventory but their too slow in getting stock on shelves, I think your getting yourself in a bit of a muddle.

If you can't see from my first post what I meant, then I can't be bothered with discussing with you. I personally feel that they are far too slow at getting stock on the shelves and it is looking like 16nm is almost upon us, so AMD have missed the boat.

Plenty of stock on the shelves at the launch of the Fiji cards was a good time for them to make some decent sales but getting plenty of stock on the shelves now is just too late IMO.

AMD fail again.

Jono8 · 17 Oct 2015 at 17:02

humbug said:
What reports? i don't know of any reports that say Pascal will be available in 5 Months, there are reports that say TSMC's volume production 16nm kicks off in Q2 2016 (assuming no delays) it would be another quarter for final testing, production and channel distribution.

You really think it will be another 12 months before Nvidia releases their new cards? Highly , highly doubtful.

They have nothing else to release now apart from maybe a 990 dual gpu card. I can't see them going 12 months from now without anything new.

Mei · 17 Oct 2015 at 17:05

if they were smart they'd get the mobile versions out fast mebe!?
i dont see the need to replace the TI just yet
unless they want the sff crown from amd bad

mmj_uk · 17 Oct 2015 at 17:06

This sounds like the sort of announcement that gets made to appease investors after the news of a bad quarter.

tommybhoy · 17 Oct 2015 at 17:19

Gregster said:
If you can't see from my first post what I meant, then I can't be bothered with discussing with you. I personally feel that they are far too slow at getting stock on the shelves and it is looking like 16nm is almost upon us, so AMD have missed the boat.

Plenty of stock on the shelves at the launch of the Fiji cards was a good time for them to make some decent sales but getting plenty of stock on the shelves now is just too late IMO.

AMD fail again.

You can't stock what you don't have in your hand, hence the attitude comment, Gibbo even told us there was no stock from the off...

Besides, anyone frequenting this sub alone largely wouldn't be interested in Fiji due to PP not to mention the posters repeatedly spamming negativity it's way.

You still don't get it or refuse to acknowledge whatever your reason on what's going to inevitably going to happen when stock increases, we'll see what happens when pricing tumbles, it's all AMD has left to increase a dwindling market share, at least we can agree on AMD missing the boat yet again, good evening to you.

humbug · 17 Oct 2015 at 17:20

Jono8 said:
You really think it will be another 12 months before Nvidia releases their new cards? Highly , highly doubtful.

They have nothing else to release now apart from maybe a 990 dual gpu card. I can't see them going 12 months from now without anything new.

Yeah maybe not 12 but Q3 2016 is think is realistic, so maybe 8 to 10 months.

FoxEye · 17 Oct 2015 at 17:22

The 970 and 980 launched over a year ago. Pray tell why you think the 1070 and 1080 are still a year away from release? Or why 18 months is "too short a lifespan" for Maxwell?

They don't have to launch the new Titan with the 1070 or 1080, do they.

Jono8 · 17 Oct 2015 at 17:27

humbug said:
Yeah maybe not 12 but Q3 2016 is think is realistic, so maybe 8 to 10 months.

Hm, we shall see. I reckon they will be with us in 6 (by April/May)

Gregster · 17 Oct 2015 at 17:29

tommybhoy said:
You can't stock what you don't have in your hand, hence the attitude comment, Gibbo even told us there was no stock from the off...

Besides, anyone frequenting this sub alone largely wouldn't be interested in Fiji due to PP not to mention the posters repeatedly spamming negativity it's way.

You still don't get it or refuse to acknowledge whatever your reason on what's going to inevitably going to happen when stock increases, we'll see what happens when pricing tumbles, it's all AMD has left to increase a dwindling market share, at least we can agree on AMD missing the boat yet again, good evening to you.

Right, as you seem to fail what my original comment was about....

The FX launched and I managed to snag one, gave it a rave review but people couldn't buy one for love nor money. I also felt they were over priced for the performance it gave but by the by, people who had sat on the fence couldn't get a FX and quite a few jumped on a 980Ti instead (better price and faster). Next comes the Fury and a nice card with some decent performance but again, short stock and high prices. Next you have the Nano, which was just mental priced and again, very very limited stock.

Now we get a report that stock will be plentiful in Q4 (could well be the end of Q4 for all we know or Monday) and with it people are hoping for some price drops. Well as I see it, 16nm isn't far away, so AMD again have messed up. Missed the boat for some decent sales prior to 16nm.

Does that make sense now?

humbug · 17 Oct 2015 at 17:32

Jono8 said:
Hm, we shall see. I reckon they will be with us in 6 (by April/May)

Once they are happy fine tuning the design they go through upto a year of torture testing to insure the chip can take 3 years of you and me using it, once thats done they have to get it approved for electronic standards who do their own extensive testing, 16nm test production didn't start until Q2 this year. Fine tuning the design can happen after test production started.

Jono8 · 17 Oct 2015 at 17:34

humbug said:
Once they are happy fine tuning the design they go through upto a year of torture testing to insure the chip can take 3 years of you and me using it, once thats done they have to get it approved for electronic standards who do their own extensive testing, 16nm test production didn't start until Q2 this year.

A year of torture testing? Give over

Gerard · 17 Oct 2015 at 17:37

Stocks improve but have the pump issues finally been resolved? The whole point of the liquid cooler was for quiet operation, not have it make a whining sound or have a reverberating sound like a fridge compressor.

Gregster · 17 Oct 2015 at 17:40

humbug said:
Once they are happy fine tuning the design they go through upto a year of torture testing to insure the chip can take 3 years of you and me using it, once thats done they have to get it approved for electronic standards who do their own extensive testing, 16nm test production didn't start until Q2 this year. Fine tuning the design can happen after test production started.

They don't spend a year torture testing lol

edit:

Just to add, GM200 taped out in June 2014 and hit the shleves in March 2015.

humbug · 17 Oct 2015 at 17:49

Torture testing isn't the same thing as looping it through Unigine Heaven for upto a year, it gets tested in hundreds of different ways for extended periods, if they find problems they have to sort it out and retest, you can't do that over a weekend.