What?
If you have a long, complex password what are the odds of someone guessing that straight away?
Yer exactly - probability wise, it's generally accepted that you will find it after going through half the possible key space - which with a long and complex password should be about equivalent to the age of the universe
Of course if you pick it out of the hat on your first attempt you're a pretty lucky guy
all about reducing risk though I guess and making those odds as unrealistic as possible.