House prices..

housemaster said:
Currently there are 2 economies. The one the general public sees and its press reflects and the real one. During the next 12 months the 2 economies are very likely to become 1 and the real problems will become clear. There are worse cases than Northern Rock out there, watch this space.
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You mean the one the press sees that deals with fact and the "real" one that deals with rumours and innuendos? You sound like that elite family guy. Foolish mortal!
 
clv101 said:
Sorry Bug One, that's anything but clear.

Sure some places will go up and some will go down. The only thing that's interesting is the average behaviour of the market. It's already fallen some 7%. Are you saying that's it or are you expecting another 3%, another 5%, 10%, 20% or what over the next couple of years?
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I have no idea what percentage the national average home will change. Why would I care.

All I care about is interest rates. While they're low I'm happy as lary.
 
well i'm still thinking of buying

Looking at 2bedroom properties in nice areas of North London, most of which cost £260k ish.

I'm trying to find some going for £230k and offering about £200k...well you don't ask you don't get!!
 
my house has drop about 20k in the last year, but as i keep telling people that i bought a home not a investment so i am not that worried as i know when/if ill sell it be a long long time from now
 
clv101 said:
Why even mention this... you know how the annual stats lag.
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While it is certainly true that annualised data will lag, I think it is important to view the current (very real) falls in context. Housing is not an easily traded commodity, and I suspect that the vast majority of people who buy a house do not sell (or remortgage for that matter) in less than a year. The majority of people selling their houses are probably getting more than they paid for it, at least in nominal terms. Of course, it is a point of concern moving forward, especially for those who bought a house recently.

carpmaster said:
"More than four million families have used a credit card to pay the mortgage or rent in the last year."

"Settling debts by withdrawing cash on a credit card is probably the most expensive way possible with interest rates as high as 28 per cent"
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While the latter is true, depending on how it is done, using a credit card to repay a debt isn't inherently a bad thing.

"About 2.2million households spend more than half of their income on their housing costs. "
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"Housing costs" presumably covers rent/mortgage, council tax, water, gas, electric, repairs etc. All important things, and surely it is to be expected that the poorest households will be spending a greater proportion of their income on them? I'm not being funny, but aside from food, clothing and transport there aren't many other 'essentials' left to spend the remainder on.

chaparral said:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7445324.stm

Lets hope that house prices drop by 44% over the next five years....(Am praying for them to)
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Bear in mind that a 44% rise followed by a 44% fall represents nearly a 20% (nominal, never mind real) fall over the 10 year period.
 
Latest figures show:

-No change in sale prices for May compared to previous month (Land Registry)
-Prices in June down 0.9% (Nationwide)

Bear in mind that with the average national change in house prices being less than 1%, it's likely that in some regions house prices will of actually risen, so it depends a bit on where you are looking to do a deal.
 
It's also worth nothing that prices are down 7.3% over the in 8 months from October.

The quarter on quarter (latest 3 months on previous 3 months) decline increased to stand at -3.7%. This is the 2nd 'worst' quarter on record, the previous being -4.09% in the winter of 1990.

This is the 'smoothed' quarter on quarter data:

2.8 June 07
2.6
2.2
1.4
1.4
1.0
0.4
-1.0
-1.6
-2.0
-2.0
-2.9
-3.7 June 08

To suggest as some commentators have that the -0.9% figure is 'good' news, or suggests the trend is changing is wrong in my opinion.

Press release: http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/June_2008.pdf
 
It's interesting that you feel annualised data isn't worthy of mention, but that it is worth noting the change over the last 8 months - surely that lags too albeit marginally less! :)
 
HangTime said:
It's interesting that you feel annualised data isn't worthy of mention, but that it is worth noting the change over the last 8 months - surely that lags too albeit marginally less! :)
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It's worth noting that change over the last 8 months as that’s when the direction changed, over the year we've have 4 months of increase followed by 8 months of decline. Considering 12 months cancels out current falls with last increases - so doesn't give a good indication of the current situation. So, the trend changed 8 months ago - and in the time we've lost 7.3%. The annual -6.3% figure isn't as meaningful.
 
What's your take on the differences between the land registry and nationwide reports, including the way they gather the data?

Which do you think is more accurate? The land registry doesn't show as higher rises or falls, as it's based on all completed sales, whereas the nationwide one is based on mortgage approvals, and only those from their own books...
 
Dolph said:
What's your take on the differences between the land registry and nationwide reports, including the way they gather the data?

Which do you think is more accurate? The land registry doesn't show as higher rises or falls, as it's based on all completed sales, whereas the nationwide one is based on mortgage approvals, and only those from their own books...
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Land registry?? :D do i win a cookie?
 
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