How long until...
- Thread starter rypt
- Start date
well fossil fuels will definitely run out sooner or later, I dont reckon the next engine evolution will be electricity though, I suspect some form of dense hydrogen cell will prevail.
time line wise, I reckon 2030 before there is a substantial percentage
time line wise, I reckon 2030 before there is a substantial percentage
There was a top gear episode a while ago mentioning alternative fuels, and they put a pretty good case forwards for hydrogen fuelled cars. Ultimately I think the main thing stopping progression to an alternative fuel is simply the infrastructure to support such a change isn't in place. I think that petrol & diesel still have some life left in them yet as engines are becoming more economical and it hasn't yet reached the point where continuing to use petrol/diesel costs more than switching to an alternative source. I'm expecting a gradual change as time progresses with a noticeable increase in around 10-15 years </random guess>
I think with more investment it would take off much more. We've had electric cars around for quite a few years now, mostly if not all using a combination electric/petrol engine, without all that much newsworthy progress (based on that I haven't heard much about them on the news), so my estimate would have to be long-term as well. 2020 might see a decent proportion of electric cars.
Of course, having hybrid cars partially defeats the point of electric - the huge weight of the engine is still there, so the electric component is more ineffective than it would otherwise be.
Of course, having hybrid cars partially defeats the point of electric - the huge weight of the engine is still there, so the electric component is more ineffective than it would otherwise be.
Charging time & efficiency is going to level out at some point though - A standard house hold socket is rated for 13A at 240V = 3.12 kWh
With estimates of 5 miles/kWh then charging for an hour will give you a 15 mile range. Obviously charging the car overnight will be OK for a commute, but if going on long trips then wouldn't really be an option so it'd be OK for 95% of driving but there would be times when it wouldn't be practical. That alone would stop me buying one unless it was possible to charge the car in a similar time that it takes to brim the car with fuel. Perhaps if I drove 2 cars then it'd be a possible option but I'd expect it's something that would hold a lot of people back. Efficiency might improve which would improve charging time & range & battery weight, but it can only go so far. There is always going to be a large amount of batteries required which will add to the weight and cost.
Also, we don't have the capacity to support the amount of power that would be required so it would require a significant amount of money to upgrade, of course the DNO's wouldn't want to foot the bill for that...
There is no reason why you have to charge the car at home, "electricity stations" could possibly deliver 1000V instead of 240V, and for domestic needs a means to connect 4 plugs to car can be devised.
Battery technology is also getting there; both with speed and with time - so much so that we could well see quick charge and good capacity within 5 years.
As for infrastructure - well perhaps it is time we started to build those nuclear power plants - they could be up and running within 5-10 years if red tape is cut
I'm getting sick of getting ripped off by both the government and the Arabs on petrol - it will be 1.50 before next Easter and then 2.00 before next Christmas at this rate
Battery technology is also getting there; both with speed and with time - so much so that we could well see quick charge and good capacity within 5 years.
As for infrastructure - well perhaps it is time we started to build those nuclear power plants - they could be up and running within 5-10 years if red tape is cut
I'm getting sick of getting ripped off by both the government and the Arabs on petrol - it will be 1.50 before next Easter and then 2.00 before next Christmas at this rate
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Soldato
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Electronically charged cars will have a very short life. Around 10 years. It will be superseded by hydrogen and fusion powered cars.
Yep and I expect leccy will cost quite a bit if you have several million cars and vans charging up every day.
We are not going to see consumer fusion for a long time, and hydrogen will always be less efficient than electricity.
I actually see electricity being the dominant power source; since everything else we use runs off it ... so why not cars?
I can't see batteries being used as a charge storage device in anything but the far distant future, they simply take an unacceptable amount of time to fill up. Possibly a hyper-capacitor if we could work out how to transfer huge charge to a device safely, but it seems unlikely to me.
Which leaves liquid solutions for energy transference. Hydrogen fuel cells seem to be the most developed currently but still require a considerable amount of energy to release the hyrdrogen, which is going to be a problem unless nuclear fusion comes on line real soon - California has been struggling to create sufficient power just to meet current demands in recent years.
My personal prediction is that we will see massive oil-crop plantations being grown instead to produce carbon-neutral fuel for existing vehicles. Space, light and labour rich countries like Africa could greatly profit if they could meet the worlds demand for oil, which is surely incentive enough to sort out the political and technological difficulties in producing it?
Which leaves liquid solutions for energy transference. Hydrogen fuel cells seem to be the most developed currently but still require a considerable amount of energy to release the hyrdrogen, which is going to be a problem unless nuclear fusion comes on line real soon - California has been struggling to create sufficient power just to meet current demands in recent years.
My personal prediction is that we will see massive oil-crop plantations being grown instead to produce carbon-neutral fuel for existing vehicles. Space, light and labour rich countries like Africa could greatly profit if they could meet the worlds demand for oil, which is surely incentive enough to sort out the political and technological difficulties in producing it?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7941026.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/7939769.stm
We are not far away from quick charge
4 plugs isn't going to be much use when a ring main is fused at 32 amps. We simply don't have anything like the required infrastructure to support many households charging cars from the mains without significant upgrades.