If True.. Oh Dear Nvidia!

[Zenduri]

IF its true then hard times ahead! I cant see ATI dropping prices then!

3dGameman/semiaccurate

NVIDIA IS KILLING the GTX260, GTX275, and GTX285 with the GTX295 almost assured to follow as Nvidia (Nvidia: NVDA) abandons the high and mid range graphics card market. Due to a massive series of engineering failures, nearly all of the company's product line is financially under water, and mismanagement seems to be killing the company.

Not even an hour after we laid out the financial woes surrounding the Nvidia GTX275 and GTX260, word reached us that they are dead. Normally, this would be an update to the original article, but this news has enough dire implications that it needs its own story. Nvidia is in desperate shape, whoop-ass has turned to ash, and the wagons can't be circled any tighter.

Word from sources deep in the bowels of 2701 San Tomas Expressway tell us that the OEMs have been notified that the GTX285 is EOL'd, the GTX260 is EOL in November or December depending on a few extraneous issues, and the GTX275 will be EOL'd within 2 weeks. I would expect this to happen around the time ATI launches their Juniper based boards, so before October 22.

The lone survivor, maybe, is the GTX295, available only as a complete board from Nvidia. This is said to be almost impossible to get, likely for reasons we went into in the earlier financial article, cost. AIBs do not expect this product to last very long, likely until current stock is depleted.

Basically, engineering failure after engineering failure has left Nvidia without a high end part, they are left waving shells while trying desperately to convince the loyal press that it is real. While that is a problem for the future, the current concern is that they have nothing that can compete with the ATI's Evergreen line, HD5870, HD5850, and the upcoming Junipers.

The G200b based parts can compete on performance, but not at a profit, so they are going to die. Nvidia was booted out of the high end market, and are now abandoning the mid range in a humbling retreat. Expect a similar backpedaling from the rest in January when Cedar and Redwood come out.

There are no half or quarter Fermi derivatives taped out yet, so at a bare minimum, Nvidia has nothing for 2 more quarters. To make matters worse, due to the obscene 530++mm^2 die size on TSMC's 40nm process, Fermi is almost twice the size of its competitor, Cypress/HD5870/HD5850. A cut down half version would cost less but still be barely competitive with Juniper. That chip would once again be vastly larger and more expensive than the ATI equivalents, and that is before board costs are examined. As the product stack waterfalls down, the ratios remain the same, Nvidia cannot be cost competitive for the Evergreen vs Fermi generation, period.

Massive engineering failures and cover-ups, starting with Bumpgate, have defined the company for the last two years. More recently, this includes the G212 failure, G214 fiasco and failure, now morphed into the G215 which is 3Q late so far, if it can ever be made profitably, and the G216 and G218 with the broken GDDR5 controllers. One or two failures are understandable, this many is flat out mismanagement.

As we have been saying all along, there is no savior chip, no plan B, they all failed. Nvidia can make chips and sell them at a loss, or retreat from those markets and lose less money. The only question now is whether or not they can fix their engineering problems and get competitive parts out before they run out of cash. Given that the earliest that this can happen is next summer, it will be very touch and go.

Nvidia has alienated anyone who could be their friend, spawned needless lawsuits that very likely drive the company to a net negative value, and failed to sell the company while it still had a perception of worth. If you ask them, Nvidia will tell you that it is boldly turning itself into a vibrant GPU compute and cell phone chip giant. Should you want to remain in their good graces, this is not to be perceived as an exit strategy.

With the cancellation of the GTX285, GTX275, and GTX260, possibly the GTX295 too, Nvidia is abandoning the entire high end and mid-range graphics market. Expect a reprise in January on the low end. The company is badly mismanaged and hated by the very partners they need to throw them a life preserver.

The only thing that can save them now is a wholesale replacement of top management. Sadly, the only people with enough shareholder leverage to do so are those very managers that need to go, so that is very unlikely. Unless there is a white knight or buyer in the wings, it is game over. At $1/year, Jen-Hsun is overpaid.S|A

 

[TaKeN]

If you were affected by the issues in this mornings Nvidia broadcast.. Please call 0800 fanboy denial

Sad stuff if its true, competition is required for price wars

 

[The Jaded Raver]

They really need to play catch up. They certainly bit ATI's dust!

 

[Tute]

I really hope this is a joke.

Not good at all - but I have to admit, it wouldn't completely surprise me.

 

[magicroundabout]

i think this is bad news for the end user as clearly no competition = high prices.

As much as ATI fanboys will stick two fingers up to there rivals it'll be a sad day if Nvidia drop out of the market and leave ATI to it all.

Competition and banter is good

 

[Jokester]

I was going to say, that that's what they do when a new gen is released they EOL all the old high end parts. But suddenly it all makes sense, what with Nvidia focussing Fermi as a PPU more than a GPU

 

[randal]

I think NVidia have been setting themselves up for this fall for a while (if the above article is indeed true).

Their idiotic rebranding or cards and model number jiggering and Bumpgate were the final steps towards failure for me, it's seems it's turned and bitten them in the butt now though.

Now is the perfect time for Intel to enter the market with something special to keep ATI on their toes, it will most likely be NVidia's death knell a la 3DFX but so long as there's someone to stand against the other as consumers we'll be OK IMO (unless Intel's offering sucks).

 

[The Asgard]

Sad indeed if true.

May be AMD/ATI can buy them out just like Nvidia did with 3DFX?

 

[Darkman]

You reap what you sow.

P

 

[Fenris]

Not cool....ATI are great and have always been good on prices but that was because, until recently, they were "The Underdog", if they have no reason to drop prices what will they do? will they still aim for fair prices or will they milk their loyal customers simply because they can?

Saying that the ATI fanboy in me can't help but be filled with guffaws at Nvidias failure.

 

[AWPC]

If true the really sad thing is that Nvidia drivers are great & they are reported to spend $100M's per year to employ all the technicians who spend 100's of hours (for free to developers not free to Nvidia!!) working on the TWIMTBP program.

If Nvidia go under ATI will be the only company left and they need to invest a lot more money in drivers & optimisations for their hardware.

PC gaming needs Nvidia to survive
http://www.fudzilla.com/content/view/15834/1/

 

[lukext]

I must admit I do perfer ATI, but, if this is true it is indeed bad news. Competition keeps the market fresh and good for consumers. Bad times....

 

[RavenXXX2]

Well if true, no more bloody physx NV optimized titles that cripple ATI hardware.

 

[Ease]

I really really doubt this is true. nVidia are a strong company, that still have good sales despite the current climate. I've always bought ATI, but this is bad news for everyone!

 

[AWPC]

Just followed the link to the source.... its Charlie again he really hates Nvidia so take it with a large dose of salt and put it with his other 50 anti Nvidia articles which were never accurate

 

[Andrew_McP]

It's always wise to take stuff like this with a hefty pinch (or even Kg) of salt. Disinformation is a great way of wrong-footing the competition.

However I mentioned in another thread that someone in a recent PCPro (iirc) podcast said that in an interview with someone senior at Nvidia, they had trashed ATI's roadmap and reliance upon performance PC hardware. Their stance was that this was an insignificant market and that their focus was now on mobile devices which sell by the millions.

If true -- and it would certainly make sense -- then it kind of ties in with the post above. Either Nvidia have backed away deliberately, or they've messed up and are putting a positive spin on a bad situation.

Personally I'd expect top end PC kit to be the 'F1' of the graphics chip world. Costly to develop, but the tech feeds down the chain. However that hasn't stopped some big names dropping out of F1 this year. The graphics chipset world can't be immune from the global slowdown either.

Interesting reading anyway, whether true or not.

Andrew McP

PS Just remembered that in another tech podcast last weekend (PC Per? Memory like a sieve!) they talked about the Fermi launch and how Nvidia focused almost entirely on the processing power of the GPU, and hardly mentioned its graphics horsepower at all. Nvidia might be hiding its potential, or just making the best of what they have. I hope not, because it's in everyone's interests that there's good competition, and nobody else seems capable these days... certainly not Intel and that awful Larrabee thing.

 

[Xelene]

Lets hope Intel gets it's **** together with Larabee.

It's not like NVIDIA's other businesses of motherboard chipsets and mobile chipsets are doing any better.

 

[Zenduri]

I have to say my preference lays with ATI as thats all i've known and while i see nvidia card as overpriced ATI needs the competition to keep prices down and so do nvidia to a degree. A sad day if its true like i said earlier.

I do agree with the closing statement in the article... Nvidia need to axe the cheifs and get someone capable in. If a nvidia product came along wiht the right performance at the right price i would ditch ATI in a blink and i dare so most of you would who run ATI but as it is it isnt going to happen.

 

[reflux]

This sucks if true. Really sucks. Competition is what drives innovation, and losing the key player in the PC graphics market will drive another nail in the coffin of PC gaming.

 

[Duran]

if thats true then its a big nail in the coffin of pc gaming.