Im calling it.....

I can see a period of stagnation but simple supply and demand means prices will stay silly IMO. Maybe a more severe correction in the Central London market.

Even if we Brexit, we're not having a sudden drop of population so it doesn't make sense.

London is not an island though. If London starts to correct but the rest of the country holds steady, you'd see a lot of people I guess start to head out of London. Especially with telecommuting becoming ever more viable as a way of work.

Maybe that's why some people are so opposed to HS2 - anything to keep people who work in London having to live in London. ;)
 
That crash didn't affect prices in London or the South East much though, just look on Zoopla. I purchased a house in Feb 2007 just before the crash and sold it this year in March for 50% more, it never even dipped in value.

And no, I don't think there will be a crash. People have been saying this for as long as I can remember, and stupidly I didn't buy a house in the 90s because of it! Over the period of a mortgage when have houses *ever* dropped in value by the end? It will never happen.

My point was buddy is that I completely agree. Outside of London, my place in Hertfordshire took a 5 to 7% hit in 2007 to 2008. It is now worth 70% more than I paid for it originally. I didnt own in London at the crash. I purchased in 2010.

I still think we will see a dip, but like you mentioned. Onwards and upwards baby. A bump in the road....
 
I'll have you know i was typing ilegibly long before glaucus started using a tablet!

I looked up "Glaucus" online and all I found was this! :eek:

Glaucus+atlanticus++(1).jpg
 
My point was buddy is that I completely agree. Outside of London, my place in Hertfordshire took a 5 to 7% hit in 2007 to 2008. It is now worth 70% more than I paid for it originally. I didnt own in London at the crash. I purchased in 2010.

I still think we will see a dip, but like you mentioned. Onwards and upwards baby. A bump in the road....

Yup! Anything else is just wishful thinking, usually by those who have been churning out this rubbish for years while they line the pocket of some scummy landlord in a place they can be kicked out of at any point. :D
 
Personally i think the government need to introduce rent caps, i was watching something on TV the other day and they were comparing rental costs of a council house to private rent. The private rent is many multiple times higher.

I'm not saying that costs should be reduced to a point where the landlord has to pay extra for his mortgage costs, as that would destroy the rental market which people do rely on. But being a landlord shouldn't be a job with a generous income.
 
Personally i think the government need to introduce rent caps, i was watching something on TV the other day and they were comparing rental costs of a council house to private rent. The private rent is many multiple times higher.

I'm not saying that costs should be reduced to a point where the landlord has to pay extra for his mortgage costs, as that would destroy the rental market which people do rely on. But being a landlord shouldn't be a job with a generous income.

Again a difficult one to legislate, different landlords will have differing mortgage costs. Also once implemented, how does this retrospectively impact landlords who bought with a high mortgage pre - rent cap? (they could harmonise it over a few years I suppose).

Despite having decent LTVs on my properties that I rent out, after all is said and done it isnt a business that generates me a cash flow income I could live off......its damn well off the mark and way below minimum wage. My value is long term.

These views of landlords stuck out on a yacht in the mediterranean watching the cash flow in are few and far between.
 
Again a difficult one to legislate, different landlords will have differing mortgage costs. Also once implemented, how does this retrospectively impact landlords who bought with a high mortgage pre - rent cap? (they could harmonise it over a few years I suppose).

Despite having decent LTVs on my properties that I rent out, after all is said and done it isnt a business that generates me a cash flow income I could live off......its damn well off the mark and way below minimum wage. My value is long term.

These views of landlords stuck out on a yacht in the mediterranean watching the cash flow in are few and far between.

Until I met my last landlord I might have disagreed with you, he owns quite a few properties but he doesn't have much in the way of spare cash, yes he isn't skint and would always have enough to fix what fails etc, but at the moment he isn't rolling in it. He'll have a rather comfortable retirement though, the git! :D

as for house prices, I'll be hoping to be in a position to buy in a few years, so a bit of a drop would be very welcome, but at the moment, houses are selling within a week, the demand is so high I just cant see any drops anytime soon :(
 
How exactly would a reset work in your eyes? Without completely wiping out any equity built up by millions of people that is?

A reset will never happen for the exact reason you said.
The investment companies would pull out of London immediately
 
Basic supply and demand
The "supply and demand" argument simply does not apply to UK housing. It's propped up by false demand from a combination of foreign investors and BTL landlords. It's a false market.

With a combination of public opinion turning on foreign investments (Politicians condemn 60% foreign ownership of London skyscraper) and measures taken against BTL (stamp duty, tax loopholes etc.) the tide is turning. The market will become fairer and more sensible.

Even Sadiq Khan has warned that building thousands of new homes a year in London to solve the housing crisis would mean nothing if “they are all bought by investors in the Middle East and Asia for use as second homes or they sit empty”. It's perhaps the most sensible thing a politician has said about the problem, considering the rest of them just trot out the utterly useless "build more houses" line :rolleyes:

People are waking up to the fact that the UK property market is rife with corruption, money-laundering and investors squeezing out ordinary citizens. The Panama Papers showed that. Hopefully proper action will be taken. We can start with BTL which has been a disaster for this country, and go from there.
 
With government schemes like Help To Buy and the re-introduction of 100% mortgages (albeit secured against a guarantor), I cannot see house prices in London remaining constant, let alone falling over time.
 
over what time frame OP? It is meaningless to call a 'peak' when a time series has various peaks and troughs over months, years, decades...

I mean generically 'calling it' could mean if prices start declining for say the next 6 months to a year you could retrospectively say you were right... and later maybe they start rising again after that year

alternatively if they flatten out or just rise steadily for the next 6 months to a year then start dropping in a years time you could also say you're right... so essentially two opposite things could occur and you've 'called it' without actually calling anything
 
Personally i think the government need to introduce rent caps, i was watching something on TV the other day and they were comparing rental costs of a council house to private rent. The private rent is many multiple times higher.

I'm not saying that costs should be reduced to a point where the landlord has to pay extra for his mortgage costs, as that would destroy the rental market which people do rely on. But being a landlord shouldn't be a job with a generous income.

that would probably make things worse, well at least for anyone wanting to move to London or move within London - supply of new rental properties could easily dry up or go to a select few (allocated sporadically like housing association or council housing) and existing tenants paying below market rents wouldn't want to move, landlords probably wouldn't want to spend much and/or might well want to sell up shrinking the rental sector further... you'd potentially push people out of London leaving it to those who can afford to buy, social tenants and people who were lucky enough to grab a rent control apartment

young graduates etc.. or just Londoners wanting to move out from their parent's home would have to live outside and commute in
 
With government schemes like Help To Buy and the re-introduction of 100% mortgages (albeit secured against a guarantor), I cannot see house prices in London remaining constant, let alone falling over time.

Also a couple of lenders, I believe, have extended the age in which they allow a mortgage to continue into, 80 I believe?

Scam said:
We can start with BTL which has been a disaster for this country, and go from there.

One of the biggest issues with house prices in the UK making it unaffordable for FTBs (especially in London and the Home Counties) has been Help to Buy IMO, not BTL.

As for a long term market reset in London? Not a chance
 
Personally i think the government need to introduce rent caps, i was watching something on TV the other day and they were comparing rental costs of a council house to private rent. The private rent is many multiple times higher.

I'm not saying that costs should be reduced to a point where the landlord has to pay extra for his mortgage costs, as that would destroy the rental market which people do rely on. But being a landlord shouldn't be a job with a generous income.
It's more complex than a simple rent comparison.

For a start, private landlords don't have council-tax funded departments to do decorating, repairs, maintenance, etc. Private landlords also have to either factor in a lot of time dealing with tenants, or see an agent take a cut right off the top. Private landlords also have to eat the cost of troublesome tenants, including those deliberately doing damage to force eviction proceedings for benefit reasons. Then there's the cost of replacing kitchens every few years because, generally (though with exceptions) tenants don't take care of a landlord's property the way they'd take care of it if they'd paid for it themselves. There's also the cost of property standing empty between tenants that, generally, councils don't face because they aren't paying mortgage costs regardless of occupancy.

No landlord in existance, in my experience, can charge several times market rate so the only way it's multiple times a council rent is where council rents are, for various reasons, artificially depressed.

Few landlords are making vast amounts on rent. Where they do stand to do very well, if housing price trends continue, is on capital appreciation but then, you're taking an extremely large financial risk that they will. And if you get it wrong, or time it wrong, or over-leverage, you can go from apparently very wealthy to definitely very bankrupt in a very short space of time.
 
I believe London and UK property prices has hit its peak. Im putting my money where my mouth is and pulling out of buying and will not be buying until I feel there is more stability in the market.

Lets see if I'm right. If I'm wrong and the prices keep going up I'm a little shafted.

Given london is being bought up by foreign money, I think prices will go up a bit yet before any easing off.
 
One of the biggest issues with house prices in the UK making it unaffordable for FTBs (especially in London and the Home Counties) has been Help to Buy IMO, not BTL.
Nonsense. Help to Buy was only launched in 2013, that's only 3yrs ago. The first BTL mortgages were available in the 90s, I believe.

HTB doesn't help (har har :rolleyes: ) but BTL has had a far, far worse impact.

Let's go back to 2007 and see what's changed. Oh, nothing!

Home Truths, which was researched by Oxford Economics, described the current housing market as "distorted and dysfunctional" with the average house price nearly 11 times the average salary and more than 4 million people on waiting lists for social housing.

The independently owned group, which provides quantitative analysis and public policy advice, argues in the report that the increase in buy-to-let and second homes is "undoubtedly contributing to the overvaluation of housing".
 
I think one significant aspect being overlooked by many who are claiming a drop is imminent is the steady rise in basic salaries across many industries in London. The market in which I headhunt into has seen 100%+ increases over the last 7 years across many functions and seniorities, as a result of bonuses being curtailed.

The recent BTL restrictions, new stamp duty calculations and the upcoming Brexit vote has caused a great deal of buyers and sellers to sit tight for a few months after the rush to buy in March, but with salaries going in one direction for many in London, I can't see house prices falling by more than 5% over the coming years. In fact, I'd say a slight gain in values for general property valued at £300k-£900k could be the most likely outcome over the next few years - although fingers crossed that Crossrail will send Whitechapel values through the roof ;)
 
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