saffyre said:
You are correct there....When you say totally immersive enviroment i assume you mean virtual reality (i.e the matrix).
Next gen graphics and physics we be along very soon and i don't think you will see much better than that for a good while. How much better can you really get than what we are seeing from next gen. Ok you can up the number of polygons and get some higher res textures in there and add some really fancy shaders. Above that what can you really do.
I was probably thinking more short term with games running multiple engines trying to model a particular component (like physics and graphics). We have far to go with our graphics representation since theres nothing out there that is remotely photo-realistic (yes we do have screen shots but nothing that runs and can be interacted with), even rendered movie CGI isnt good enough to fool us 100% of the time. With physics we are still at the tip of the iceberg and A.I. is in its infancy (if you excuse the dry pun) and so far they are nice touches (just like dolies)...
Even if you can simulate the real world very accurately in the visual and in the physical sense, we lack any way to effectively interact with a simulated world that complex. Whats the point in having this insanely complex world where all u can do is run about and look around with a mouse and keyboard (simplfied). So it really renders it pointless until we get some kind of virtual reality on the go.
From what I have read we have already been able to monitor brain activity and plug that data into a pc to allow a human to control a computer with their mind. This is however FAR from the kind of technology we would need for virtual reality so I think well be stuck with the next gen for a good while. Hence we have hit a plateau in gaming. Thats not to say gaming tech wont advance past that i just dont think it will for a good while.
Now with VR you need to have all of this and more to make it believable, but you would also need to consider A.I. (well A.L. hopefully) aswell as modelling all our senses aswell. These things just wont happen overnight and I doubt it will be as easy as it was to code for graphics. Believable interactivity is key for VR, where you just accept what is put before you and it accepts any inputs that you deem would be possible in real life and outputs your expectations...
Perhaps Ive gone off-topic, but yes we are nearing the end of making perfect graphics, but considering how long its taken to get here, I still think it will be a while (10+ years) before we really get there. With other technologies (Physics, A.L., sensory modelling etc...) we havent even got to a point in understanding how revolutionary they could be, for example the Nintendo Wii is this Christmas' hot product for the way it involves the player, but you can appreciate that it is still a rather crude tool in what it is trying to do - it will take an age to put all this together, think Ill see this in my lifetime, I think not...
The problem (and the question I leave you) is, who/what decides when the models and the coding we make are real, accurate and fulfill their remit. When you are looking to emulate real life (well a scenario) like VR will try and do, what is good enough? No doubt someone will invent individual 'Turing tests' for all these models to aspire to, but can you do one for 'life'?
I need to lie down - must have been possessed
ps3ud0
