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Intel CPU supply constraint worse than we think?

Soldato
Joined
18 Oct 2002
Posts
15,206
Location
West Midlands
Just had an interesting start to my morning, and a somewhat unexpected conversation.

Having currently just redesigned an older 1U based server, moving from an i5-4570T as it is now discontinued to the i3-8100T on the 1151 socket, fully passing validation and everything looking fine to go ahead with a new system revision and such. All great right? Apparently not.

So, first thing today I have an e-mail stating that the re-design is no good as the processor is not available and is there not an alternative. Now the 8100T is firstly a 35w TDP part, and secondly one of Intel's embedded option processors with extended lifespan and only comes in tray from, not retail so I find the e-mail somewhat confusing.

After a quick chat with the bod that deals with these things I get on to the disti, who apparently offered to send in i3-8100 retail units as an alternative, obviously stating it is no good as the 65w part in my nice cool and quiet 1U short-depth server is not going to fit within my thermal constraints. The question obviously arises when are you expecting stock of the 8100T (this is the interesting part, for me anyway), the response I got was unexpected and was worded like this roughly "We are currently unable to get any real volume of Intel tray parts, and don't expect significant volume until at least the end of the quarter, possibly as late as January if things continue like this" I was then told that they have flow of retail boxed parts, but they are now facing daily updates of less and less stock being allocated and it's been getting worse.

I've fired off an e-mail to our Intel rep, and see of we get anything back, not that he ever responds with anything useful since we don't deal with them directly for CPU's, but things seems somewhat craptastic if you need parts now or in the near future.

I'd brace yourself for more gouging, since it looks like the big OEM's are hoovering up all the tray stock and what ever is left in the retail channel there is going to be a mad scramble for at some point.

Merry Christmas AMD. :)
 
Just had an interesting start to my morning, and a somewhat unexpected conversation.

Having currently just redesigned an older 1U based server, moving from an i5-4570T as it is now discontinued to the i3-8100T on the 1151 socket, fully passing validation and everything looking fine to go ahead with a new system revision and such. All great right? Apparently not.

So, first thing today I have an e-mail stating that the re-design is no good as the processor is not available and is there not an alternative. Now the 8100T is firstly a 35w TDP part, and secondly one of Intel's embedded option processors with extended lifespan and only comes in tray from, not retail so I find the e-mail somewhat confusing.

After a quick chat with the bod that deals with these things I get on to the disti, who apparently offered to send in i3-8100 retail units as an alternative, obviously stating it is no good as the 65w part in my nice cool and quiet 1U short-depth server is not going to fit within my thermal constraints. The question obviously arises when are you expecting stock of the 8100T (this is the interesting part, for me anyway), the response I got was unexpected and was worded like this roughly "We are currently unable to get any real volume of Intel tray parts, and don't expect significant volume until at least the end of the quarter, possibly as late as January if things continue like this" I was then told that they have flow of retail boxed parts, but they are now facing daily updates of less and less stock being allocated and it's been getting worse.

I've fired off an e-mail to our Intel rep, and see of we get anything back, not that he ever responds with anything useful since we don't deal with them directly for CPU's, but things seems somewhat craptastic if you need parts now or in the near future.

I'd brace yourself for more gouging, since it looks like the big OEM's are hoovering up all the tray stock and what ever is left in the retail channel there is going to be a mad scramble for at some point.

Merry Christmas AMD. :)

There was an article the other day stating OEM's had already started buying AMD in volume to make up the shortfall on Intel CPU's... expect to start seeing more and more Ryzen options in OEM machines soon.

I actually saw some Ryzen advertising as well on the Dell Site the other day... surprised me to say the least.
 
Intel have been terrible for a long time. This shortage emphasises that. Not in terms of their products but the way they handle people that actually sell their CPUS. Unless you are one of the big boys in the UK then their support for resellers is terrible. The company I work for has been a platinum partner for 15+ years. It was bad when they stopped having proper channel managers in the UK and moved to Germany but now they have moved to Poland we have had virtually no contact whatsoever. A friend of mine used to be the top channel manager in the UK and there was no issues receiving information, support or samples. Now? Well I have not had any information since the end of August and no samples of the latest 9th gen. Simply put, they moved their UK channel representatives to save on costs and they have failed in every way since the change.
 
With the 8100 nearing £200 I think the CPU constraint couldn't be much worse.

That's retail though, the fact that they are having trouble supplying tray only parts like the 8100T is far more worrying, retail parts make up a minute fraction of overall Intel said worldwide so when we are getting offered retail boxed parts in lieu of OEM/Tray CPU's it means people like you who want to buy a CPU will face much higher prices, even worse then now potentially.

On the plus side at least the RAM prices will fall because of the low CPU supply. :)
 
Or go up even more to recoup losses from declining sales.

Market analysts have already said to expect at least a 2% drop QoQ, or even more depending on how bad the Intel shortage is, and the have also said than NAND is now looking to slump faster than previously predicted due to impact of chips shortages. Prices will not go up in the next 3 months, while this shortage exists, but they may rise sharply once the shortage eases again.
 
It is now in everybody's best interest to embrace Ryzen and Threadripper. Asus and Gigabyte are already seeing drops in motherboard sales because of the scarcity of overpriced Intel processors, and with an actual and intentional slash of millions of units available to the DIY sector then motherboard manufacturers will continue to see reductions in sales. And that sends prices up even further to the point sales are continued to be lost from pricing customers out of the market.

Hopefully by the time AMD and TSMC hit capacity problems with Ryzen 3 Intel will have sorted their game out.
 
At a recent supplier meeting it was stated that all the tier 1 partners (HP, Dell, etc.) are completely protected from supply constraints and have guaranteed stock. They are currently selling record numbers of Intel systems, mostly driven by corporate upgrades to Windows 10. Due to this protection and ready supply, they are not seeing businesses switch from Intel to AMD. Intel obviously have a finite capacity and so it is the smaller resellers and enthusiast market which suffers.
 
and with an actual and intentional slash of millions of units available to the DIY sector then motherboard manufacturers will continue to see reductions in sales. And that sends prices up even further to the point sales are continued to be lost from pricing customers out of the market.

DIY builders can still purchase OEM chips and use them in builds, but I suspect the 1 year warranty vs. 3 year warranty will be a big deal for many.
 
DIY builders can still purchase OEM chips and use them in builds, but I suspect the 1 year warranty vs. 3 year warranty will be a big deal for many.

DIY builders though, us...............can only get OEM chips from the likes of our hosts. As the likes of OCUK will be buying both retail and OEM chips, Intel will and do know that they sell both. So they will cut back on both or even stop OEM sales to our hosts.

To be honest OEM or Retail warranty's have never bothered me.
 
Seems Intel are going to be limiting the supply to the very market this forum is about.

https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20181115PD206.html

2 million CPU's cut from Q4 '18 shipments
And shortage may last to Q3 of next or even beyond...
https://uk.pcmag.com/news/118435/intels-chip-shortage-slows-pc-business-for-acer-and-asus
Meaning until Intel has actually working 10nm node mass producing actually working CPUs.
Even if Intel can "offload"/outsource some minor chip production to other fabs increased CPU die sizes and that The Way It's Meant to be Glued Cascade Lake AP will suck production capacity.

BTW, how's with that email to your Intel rep, where ever he's stationed now.
Any replies yet or is it like sending email to that devnull?


Sure hope AMD has things going well for Ryzen 3xxx and they can release it sooner than year after Ryzen 2xxx.
There won't ever be better change to grab notable market share and notable performance improvement would make it perfect chance.
We need two more even sized players just to avoid problems from this kind of shortages.
Also OEMs should realize that by now instead of staying in Intel's leash.
 
I see Asus has publicly said that Intel's shortages are affecting the Q4 '18 performance and that they expect it to stay the same or worse for another 6 months.
 
Its bad but OcUK now has thousands of both tray and retail in stock, I've made sure that we should be good now until January. :)

If any traders are reading, we do offer B2B accounts so call us up for a quote and potential account.
 
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